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卫星遥感监测产量预估及重点天气分析报告
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, most major global agricultural product producing areas were stable, but some regions faced risks due to weather. The overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, with short - term dryness in the Midwest being alleviated, and the yields remained stable. The cotton - growing areas in the US had favorable hydro - thermal conditions, but extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact. The palm oil - growing areas in Southeast Asia had a good overall growth environment, but a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra required attention. The rapeseed - growing areas in Canada and Australia had some issues, and the temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was generally normal, while high temperatures in Aksu from May to June needed to be monitored. Europe faced risks of drought and wildfires due to a heat dome from late June to early July, and strong convective weather occurred after the heat dome collapsed in July. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Monitoring Scope and Method**: The monitoring covered the US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil in June, using data from 2005 - 2025. It combined satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, with 24 key indicators. A self - developed yield model was also constructed, which used multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote sensing data, combined with meteorological and historical yield data, and was trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [6][7][13]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: The yields of US soybeans and corn were basically stable, with a slight decline in the overall yield per unit area that could be ignored. In the Canadian producing areas, the crop growth in the Manitoba region in the east was affected by drought, slightly dragging down the overall yield per unit area. The Australian rapeseed yield was slightly revised upward, but it was still worse than the historical average. The US cotton maintained good growth, but excessive precipitation in June and extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact [14]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Palm Oil Producing Areas in Malaysia and Indonesia**: In June 2025, the growth environment indicators in the palm oil - growing areas were generally in good condition. Vegetation indices in different regions showed small fluctuations. Precipitation and soil humidity had regional characteristics, with a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra posing a potential risk. The temperature rose slightly, remaining within the suitable range for palm growth [17][18][25]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, but there were regional differences in precipitation. North Dakota and Nebraska had poor soil moisture due to less precipitation, and North Dakota's crop growth was negatively affected. Vegetation indices in different regions showed significant differences related to hydro - thermal conditions. Soil humidity generally increased, but it decreased in Nebraska [26][31][35]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the growth of cotton in the US producing areas was mostly on the rise due to good hydro - thermal conditions, but excessive precipitation in some areas had an inhibitory effect. Vegetation indices in different regions showed different trends, and soil humidity was generally higher than normal, with the increase in the deep layer being more obvious [38][39][41]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The vegetation index in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas slightly decreased, and the soil moisture risk in Manitoba was relatively high [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The growth of rapeseed in Australia was poor, and there was a high risk of yield reduction in South Australia and Victoria [1]. - **Xinjiang Jujube - growing Area**: The temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was basically normal, but the high temperature in Aksu from May to June needed attention [1]. - **Recent Formation and Collapse of the Heat Dome in Europe**: A heat dome formed in Europe from late June to early July, causing extreme high temperatures, drought, and wildfire risks. After the heat dome collapsed in July, strong convective weather occurred, and it might form again later [1]. - **Historical and Future Weather Analysis in North American Producing Areas**: The weather in North America in the past month and the extreme precipitation in the southern US were analyzed. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth, with improved precipitation in the US Midwest and possible alleviation of soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas [1].