2025年11月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：暂无突破驱动，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：期价维持震荡走势 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强，反套格局 | 11 | | 生猪：降温预期落地，压力逐步释放 | 12 | | 花生：关注油厂动向 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，关注产地去库进程 豆油：暂无突破驱动，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost is expected to fluctuate. Short - term soybean meal prices may rise with import costs, and the profit margin for oil extraction may recover, but in the medium term, the global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [2][3]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high production in Indonesia does not continue, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [5][6][7]. - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand is weak this year, the downstream industry chain's operating rate has declined compared to the same period in previous years, and there is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12][13]. - For eggs, due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [15][18]. - For pigs, the supply is sufficient, and the spot price increase is less than expected. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose as China's reduction of tariffs on US soybeans stimulated demand, while the Brazilian soybean premium declined slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 2980 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal was average, but the delivery was good, and the oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.0964 million tons this week, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall. China announced an adjustment to the import tariff on US goods, and the import tax rate for US soybeans is expected to be 13% from November 10, still higher than that of Brazil, so there is still uncertainty about future purchases of US soybeans [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The import cost of soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on the crushing profit. However, as it enters the inventory - reduction season, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal prices will rise in the short term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, which will stimulate purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of abundant global soybean supply remains unchanged, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [3]. Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55%. A survey on Wednesday estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season to be 19.2 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Driven by the strong recovery of production in East Malaysia and more working days in the month, production reached a peak in October. It is expected that the seasonal high production will gradually decrease as the industry enters the low - production period in early 2026. Domestic oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by more than 10%. Palm oil prices are still constrained by the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current inventory accumulation situation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [6][7]. Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the报价 of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5650 - 5690 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the报价 of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5530 - 5590 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream报价 range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with mixed changes from the previous day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 209 yuan/ton. Brazil's Conab estimated that the sugar cane production in the central - southern region in the 2025/26 season would be 607.38 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons, while the sugar production is expected to be 41.34 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 40.64 million tons. India's ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) would be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting 3.4 million tons for ethanol production is expected to be 30.95 million tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugar - cane - to - sugar conversion, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1210 yuan/ton. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. On November 4, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.27 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.01 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [13]. Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose slightly to 2.85 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, and farmers sold their eggs as usual. The market demand was okay, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream traders increased slightly. Egg prices may be stable or rise today [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18]. Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.16 yuan to 11.88 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.2 yuan to 11.47 yuan/kg. The support from secondary fattening decreased, and the pigs that were previously held back for fattening are gradually being sold. The supply remains sufficient, the arrival of goods downstream has increased, and most white - striped pork prices have declined, which is negative for live - pig prices. It is expected that farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices today, while they will be more willing to sell at high prices, and the price may be stable or decline [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the difficulty in selling white - striped pork, the increase in spot prices at the end of the month was less than expected. From the perspective of the number of pens of small - scale farmers and the frozen - product storage rate, the current inventory is significantly postponed, and there is a suspicion of lack of follow - up power under the continuous high - supply pressure. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure, and its trend is independent of the spot market. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, most major global agricultural product producing areas were stable, but some regions faced risks due to weather. The overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, with short - term dryness in the Midwest being alleviated, and the yields remained stable. The cotton - growing areas in the US had favorable hydro - thermal conditions, but extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact. The palm oil - growing areas in Southeast Asia had a good overall growth environment, but a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra required attention. The rapeseed - growing areas in Canada and Australia had some issues, and the temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was generally normal, while high temperatures in Aksu from May to June needed to be monitored. Europe faced risks of drought and wildfires due to a heat dome from late June to early July, and strong convective weather occurred after the heat dome collapsed in July. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Monitoring Scope and Method**: The monitoring covered the US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil in June, using data from 2005 - 2025. It combined satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, with 24 key indicators. A self - developed yield model was also constructed, which used multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote sensing data, combined with meteorological and historical yield data, and was trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [6][7][13]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: The yields of US soybeans and corn were basically stable, with a slight decline in the overall yield per unit area that could be ignored. In the Canadian producing areas, the crop growth in the Manitoba region in the east was affected by drought, slightly dragging down the overall yield per unit area. The Australian rapeseed yield was slightly revised upward, but it was still worse than the historical average. The US cotton maintained good growth, but excessive precipitation in June and extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact [14]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Palm Oil Producing Areas in Malaysia and Indonesia**: In June 2025, the growth environment indicators in the palm oil - growing areas were generally in good condition. Vegetation indices in different regions showed small fluctuations. Precipitation and soil humidity had regional characteristics, with a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra posing a potential risk. The temperature rose slightly, remaining within the suitable range for palm growth [17][18][25]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, but there were regional differences in precipitation. North Dakota and Nebraska had poor soil moisture due to less precipitation, and North Dakota's crop growth was negatively affected. Vegetation indices in different regions showed significant differences related to hydro - thermal conditions. Soil humidity generally increased, but it decreased in Nebraska [26][31][35]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the growth of cotton in the US producing areas was mostly on the rise due to good hydro - thermal conditions, but excessive precipitation in some areas had an inhibitory effect. Vegetation indices in different regions showed different trends, and soil humidity was generally higher than normal, with the increase in the deep layer being more obvious [38][39][41]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The vegetation index in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas slightly decreased, and the soil moisture risk in Manitoba was relatively high [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The growth of rapeseed in Australia was poor, and there was a high risk of yield reduction in South Australia and Victoria [1]. - **Xinjiang Jujube - growing Area**: The temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was basically normal, but the high temperature in Aksu from May to June needed attention [1]. - **Recent Formation and Collapse of the Heat Dome in Europe**: A heat dome formed in Europe from late June to early July, causing extreme high temperatures, drought, and wildfire risks. After the heat dome collapsed in July, strong convective weather occurred, and it might form again later [1]. - **Historical and Future Weather Analysis in North American Producing Areas**: The weather in North America in the past month and the extreme precipitation in the southern US were analyzed. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth, with improved precipitation in the US Midwest and possible alleviation of soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas [1].

Group 1 - ICE cotton prices increased by 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, while CF509 rose by 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 3,515 contracts to 546,800 contracts [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 15,163 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China cotton price index for grade 3128B was 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [1] - The U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, with good growth conditions, and production may be adjusted upward on a month-over-month basis while remaining flat year-over-year, with the USDA report due this Saturday [1] Group 2 - Domestic cotton prices showed a slight increase, with limited driving forces due to low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances supporting cotton prices, while expectations for new cotton production are strong during the off-season with limited demand [1] - The short-term outlook for Zheng cotton is weak, expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with the September contract likely to perform better than the January contract, while macroeconomic and weather disturbances are to be monitored [1] - In Brazil, sugarcane crushing in the second half of June is estimated at 44.24 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production at 2.95 million tons, down 9.8%, and ethanol production at 2.01 billion liters, down 13.1% [1] Group 3 - The current spot prices for white sugar in various regions include 6,040 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and 6,075 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, down 5 yuan [1] - As of July 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,932, a decrease of 39 from the previous day, with effective forecasts at 266 [1] - The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day, while the comprehensive inventory of yarn increased by 0.1 to 29.8; the comprehensive load of short fiber cloth decreased by 0.1 to 48.6, with inventory remaining stable at 33.5 [1]