1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, most major global agricultural product producing areas were stable, but some regions faced risks due to weather. The overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, with short - term dryness in the Midwest being alleviated, and the yields remained stable. The cotton - growing areas in the US had favorable hydro - thermal conditions, but extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact. The palm oil - growing areas in Southeast Asia had a good overall growth environment, but a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra required attention. The rapeseed - growing areas in Canada and Australia had some issues, and the temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was generally normal, while high temperatures in Aksu from May to June needed to be monitored. Europe faced risks of drought and wildfires due to a heat dome from late June to early July, and strong convective weather occurred after the heat dome collapsed in July. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Monitoring Scope and Method**: The monitoring covered the US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil in June, using data from 2005 - 2025. It combined satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, with 24 key indicators. A self - developed yield model was also constructed, which used multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote sensing data, combined with meteorological and historical yield data, and was trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [6][7][13]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: The yields of US soybeans and corn were basically stable, with a slight decline in the overall yield per unit area that could be ignored. In the Canadian producing areas, the crop growth in the Manitoba region in the east was affected by drought, slightly dragging down the overall yield per unit area. The Australian rapeseed yield was slightly revised upward, but it was still worse than the historical average. The US cotton maintained good growth, but excessive precipitation in June and extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact [14]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Palm Oil Producing Areas in Malaysia and Indonesia**: In June 2025, the growth environment indicators in the palm oil - growing areas were generally in good condition. Vegetation indices in different regions showed small fluctuations. Precipitation and soil humidity had regional characteristics, with a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra posing a potential risk. The temperature rose slightly, remaining within the suitable range for palm growth [17][18][25]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, but there were regional differences in precipitation. North Dakota and Nebraska had poor soil moisture due to less precipitation, and North Dakota's crop growth was negatively affected. Vegetation indices in different regions showed significant differences related to hydro - thermal conditions. Soil humidity generally increased, but it decreased in Nebraska [26][31][35]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the growth of cotton in the US producing areas was mostly on the rise due to good hydro - thermal conditions, but excessive precipitation in some areas had an inhibitory effect. Vegetation indices in different regions showed different trends, and soil humidity was generally higher than normal, with the increase in the deep layer being more obvious [38][39][41]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The vegetation index in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas slightly decreased, and the soil moisture risk in Manitoba was relatively high [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The growth of rapeseed in Australia was poor, and there was a high risk of yield reduction in South Australia and Victoria [1]. - **Xinjiang Jujube - growing Area**: The temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was basically normal, but the high temperature in Aksu from May to June needed attention [1]. - **Recent Formation and Collapse of the Heat Dome in Europe**: A heat dome formed in Europe from late June to early July, causing extreme high temperatures, drought, and wildfire risks. After the heat dome collapsed in July, strong convective weather occurred, and it might form again later [1]. - **Historical and Future Weather Analysis in North American Producing Areas**: The weather in North America in the past month and the extreme precipitation in the southern US were analyzed. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth, with improved precipitation in the US Midwest and possible alleviation of soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas [1].

Group 1 - ICE cotton prices increased by 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, while CF509 rose by 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 3,515 contracts to 546,800 contracts [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 15,163 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China cotton price index for grade 3128B was 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [1] - The U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, with good growth conditions, and production may be adjusted upward on a month-over-month basis while remaining flat year-over-year, with the USDA report due this Saturday [1] Group 2 - Domestic cotton prices showed a slight increase, with limited driving forces due to low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances supporting cotton prices, while expectations for new cotton production are strong during the off-season with limited demand [1] - The short-term outlook for Zheng cotton is weak, expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with the September contract likely to perform better than the January contract, while macroeconomic and weather disturbances are to be monitored [1] - In Brazil, sugarcane crushing in the second half of June is estimated at 44.24 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production at 2.95 million tons, down 9.8%, and ethanol production at 2.01 billion liters, down 13.1% [1] Group 3 - The current spot prices for white sugar in various regions include 6,040 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and 6,075 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, down 5 yuan [1] - As of July 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,932, a decrease of 39 from the previous day, with effective forecasts at 266 [1] - The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day, while the comprehensive inventory of yarn increased by 0.1 to 29.8; the comprehensive load of short fiber cloth decreased by 0.1 to 48.6, with inventory remaining stable at 33.5 [1]