Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures have shown a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.92% to 2.92 thousand yuan per ton as of August 1 [1] Inventory and Production - As of July 20, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory stands at 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% month-on-month [2] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 79.5 million tons, down 0.23% month-on-month, while the total inventory of light rubber is 49.3 million tons, down 0.85% month-on-month [2] - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reports a slight expected increase of 0.5% in global natural rubber production in 2025 compared to 2024, with demand projected to grow by 1.3% [2] Market Analysis - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, recent rainfall in production areas has affected rubber tapping, providing some support to raw material prices. However, the overall demand remains weak due to the off-peak season for end consumption and uncertainties in exports, with price increases relying mainly on supply-side factors [4] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a tight overall supply-demand situation for rubber throughout the year, but short-term supply may increase, leading to a price decline for raw materials. The operating rate of tire manufacturers is expected to decrease due to maintenance, contributing to a weaker short-term rubber market [4]