Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The natural rubber futures prices are rising. The strong performance of butadiene has significantly driven up the prices of synthetic rubber, and natural rubber has followed this upward trend. With domestic rubber - producing areas having stopped tapping and the northeastern part of Thailand expected to stop tapping in January, while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the price of raw rubber is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The chemical industry sector has been strong recently, and the short - term rubber prices are expected to remain relatively strong [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR futures were 16,315, 13,095, and 12,930 respectively, with price increases of 465, 360, and 660, and price increase rates of 2.93%, 2.83%, and 5.38% respectively. Their trading volumes were 445,410, 100,811, and 356,678, and their open interests were 12,930, 59,878, and 30,694 respectively, with changes of 660, - 949, and 10 [2]. - The spreads between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3,220, 3,385, and 165 respectively, with changes of 105, - 195, and - 300 [2]. - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 315, - 1440, and 2235 respectively, compared to previous values of - 250, - 1060, and 2400 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15,900, 16,000, and 16,000 respectively, with price increase rates of 2.91%, 2.56%, and 2.56%. Spot prices of smoke - sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 18,550, with a price increase rate of 1.64%. Spot prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 14,875 and 15,575 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.57% and 2.81% [2]. Downstream Market - The prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 60.7, 52.61, and 57.6 Thai baht per kilogram respectively, with price increase rates of 1.08%, 0.67%, and 0.52% [2].

Group 1 - The main contract for asphalt futures closed at 3009 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63% and a reduction in open interest by 26,713 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of November 17-21, the domestic asphalt shipment volume from 54 enterprises totaled 362,000 tons, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the previous week [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, down 4.7% from before the holiday and down 2.5% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Weather conditions, including rain and snow in Northwest, Northeast, and Northern China, have severely impacted road asphalt demand, leading to a seasonal decline in rigid demand as temperatures drop below freezing [2] - Social inventory of asphalt from 70 sample enterprises was 794,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared to the previous week, with Shandong's social inventory at 259,000 tons, down 39,000 tons [2] - According to Baocan Futures, the supply side of asphalt is contracting due to declining profits, while demand is constrained by financial and weather factors, indicating a weak overall recovery momentum [3] Group 3 - Yide Futures noted that while refinery inventory is increasing and social inventory is decreasing, the short-term supply-demand dynamics are neutral [3] - In the medium term, asphalt supply in November is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with refinery inventory likely to accumulate and social inventory decreasing [3] - The market is advised to pay attention to crude oil price trends as the recent dilution of asphalt price spreads indicates potential pricing strategies for winter storage [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a divergence in the futures market for steel and iron ore, with steel prices expected to remain weak while iron ore is anticipated to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - On the steel market, futures prices showed weakness with a reported transaction volume of 106,000 tons and specific price changes: Tangshan steel billet at 2,940 (-10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3,220 (-10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3,320 (-20) yuan/ton [1] - In September, the new residential property transaction area in 10 major cities reached 6.7637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The second-hand housing transaction area was 9.3068 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] - The sentiment among traders in the spot market remains stable, but transactions are at low levels, indicating weak terminal demand. While second-hand home sales have improved, new home sales show limited improvement [1] - Steel mills are maintaining production levels, leading to increased supply pressure as hot-rolled coil inventories rise to high levels, suggesting a bearish outlook for steel prices [1] Group 3 - In the iron ore market, futures prices are fluctuating with a reported port transaction volume of 950,000 tons. Prices for PB powder are at 796 (+6) yuan/ton, and for super special powder at 720 (+4) yuan/ton, with a price difference of 76 yuan/ton between PB and super special powder [1] - From October 6 to 12, the total iron ore volume arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, an increase of 3.683 million tons compared to the previous period. Global shipments totaled 32.075 million tons, a decrease of 0.715 million tons [1] - The demand side shows that steel mills are profitable, with high furnace operation rates and an average daily pig iron output exceeding 2.41 million tons. The supply side remains stable, with a slight decrease in overseas shipments this week, while arrivals are at near three-year highs [1] - Post-holiday, steel mill inventory is expected to decrease, while port inventories are anticipated to increase, leading to a forecast of fluctuating iron ore prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures have shown a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.92% to 2.92 thousand yuan per ton as of August 1 [1] Inventory and Production - As of July 20, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory stands at 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% month-on-month [2] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 79.5 million tons, down 0.23% month-on-month, while the total inventory of light rubber is 49.3 million tons, down 0.85% month-on-month [2] - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reports a slight expected increase of 0.5% in global natural rubber production in 2025 compared to 2024, with demand projected to grow by 1.3% [2] Market Analysis - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, recent rainfall in production areas has affected rubber tapping, providing some support to raw material prices. However, the overall demand remains weak due to the off-peak season for end consumption and uncertainties in exports, with price increases relying mainly on supply-side factors [4] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a tight overall supply-demand situation for rubber throughout the year, but short-term supply may increase, leading to a price decline for raw materials. The operating rate of tire manufacturers is expected to decrease due to maintenance, contributing to a weaker short-term rubber market [4]