截至2025年11月21日当周，沥青期货主力合约收于3009元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持26713 手。 宝城期货：综合来看，沥青供应端因利润下降而被动收缩；需求端受制于资金与天气因素，呈现"北弱 南强"的区域分化，整体复苏动能不足。沥青社会库存去化缓解了市场压力，但炼厂库存的边际累增也 预示着销售压力的加大。在供需双弱的大背景下，后市沥青期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 一德期货：百川炼厂库存增加、社库减少，短期供需驱动中性。中期来看，11月供应同比基本持平，预 计炼厂库存开始累积，社会库存减少，盘面计价冬储预期价格，近期稀释沥青贴水下跌，关注原油价格 方向。 截至11月21日当周，70家样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比下降3.1万吨，山东社会库存25.9万吨，环比 下降3.9万吨。 机构观点汇总： 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，沥青期货周内开盘报3048元/吨，最高触及3084元/吨，最低下探 至2976元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.63%。 消息面回顾： 本周国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共36.2万吨，环比减少18.7%；国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能 利用率为12.6%，环比节前减 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a divergence in the futures market for steel and iron ore, with steel prices expected to remain weak while iron ore is anticipated to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - On the steel market, futures prices showed weakness with a reported transaction volume of 106,000 tons and specific price changes: Tangshan steel billet at 2,940 (-10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3,220 (-10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3,320 (-20) yuan/ton [1] - In September, the new residential property transaction area in 10 major cities reached 6.7637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The second-hand housing transaction area was 9.3068 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] - The sentiment among traders in the spot market remains stable, but transactions are at low levels, indicating weak terminal demand. While second-hand home sales have improved, new home sales show limited improvement [1] - Steel mills are maintaining production levels, leading to increased supply pressure as hot-rolled coil inventories rise to high levels, suggesting a bearish outlook for steel prices [1] Group 3 - In the iron ore market, futures prices are fluctuating with a reported port transaction volume of 950,000 tons. Prices for PB powder are at 796 (+6) yuan/ton, and for super special powder at 720 (+4) yuan/ton, with a price difference of 76 yuan/ton between PB and super special powder [1] - From October 6 to 12, the total iron ore volume arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, an increase of 3.683 million tons compared to the previous period. Global shipments totaled 32.075 million tons, a decrease of 0.715 million tons [1] - The demand side shows that steel mills are profitable, with high furnace operation rates and an average daily pig iron output exceeding 2.41 million tons. The supply side remains stable, with a slight decrease in overseas shipments this week, while arrivals are at near three-year highs [1] - Post-holiday, steel mill inventory is expected to decrease, while port inventories are anticipated to increase, leading to a forecast of fluctuating iron ore prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures have shown a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.92% to 2.92 thousand yuan per ton as of August 1 [1] Inventory and Production - As of July 20, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory stands at 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% month-on-month [2] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 79.5 million tons, down 0.23% month-on-month, while the total inventory of light rubber is 49.3 million tons, down 0.85% month-on-month [2] - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reports a slight expected increase of 0.5% in global natural rubber production in 2025 compared to 2024, with demand projected to grow by 1.3% [2] Market Analysis - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, recent rainfall in production areas has affected rubber tapping, providing some support to raw material prices. However, the overall demand remains weak due to the off-peak season for end consumption and uncertainties in exports, with price increases relying mainly on supply-side factors [4] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a tight overall supply-demand situation for rubber throughout the year, but short-term supply may increase, leading to a price decline for raw materials. The operating rate of tire manufacturers is expected to decrease due to maintenance, contributing to a weaker short-term rubber market [4]