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中国石油(601857):2026年度投资峰会速递:天然气业务降本增量彰显核心竞争力
HTSC· 2025-11-07 11:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [5] Core Insights - The company showcased its operational performance for the first three quarters of the year, highlighting the growth potential in its natural gas business and reaffirming its recent dividend payout history [1] - The resilience of the company's natural gas business against oil price fluctuations has significantly improved due to cost reduction and incremental growth strategies [1][2] - The company has transformed its business structure, with the natural gas segment now accounting for over 50% of profits, driven by steady domestic production and sales growth [2][3] Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In the first three quarters, the company's crude oil production increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 714 million barrels, while the average selling price decreased by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel. Natural gas sales volume rose by 4.6% to 3,977 billion cubic feet, and unit operating costs fell by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [2] - Natural gas sales reached 218.54 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 4.9% to 170.89 billion cubic meters. The company optimized its import gas resource pool, effectively controlling procurement costs and increasing the proportion of high-end market sales, leading to a 60.1% year-on-year profit increase in the natural gas segment [2] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% since 2010, even during periods of poor performance in 2016-2017. In 2024, the dividend payout ratio is expected to be 52.2%, higher than during previous high-profit years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 0.87, 0.88, and 0.92. The target prices for A and H shares are set at RMB 11.00 and HKD 9.19, respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [4][5]