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五矿期货贵金属日报-20250527
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is opening today. With Japan's CPI data exceeding expectations, the market has increased its expectations for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates. The results of last week's Japanese government bond auction were disappointing, and Japanese bond yields rose. Meanwhile, the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on Thursday was cold, with the bid - to - cover ratio lower than the previous value and the winning yield rising to 5.047%. Despite the high bond yields in the US and Japan, the gold price remains firm, indicating its hedging effect against central bank credit. It is still an alternative to overseas sovereign bond allocations, and the medium - term upward logic is clear [2]. - As of the latest reporting period on May 20, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds ended a nine - week decline, increasing by 6,402 lots to 107,629 lots. The net long positions of COMEX silver managed funds rose by 2,112 lots to 30,445 lots [3]. - For gold, it is recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for a significant price correction to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 836 yuan/gram. Silver has strong upward momentum only when the Fed makes a clear dovish statement. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.23% to 779.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29% to 8,294.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.18% to 3,348.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.16% to 33.59 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.51%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.95 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal - related products are presented in detail in the tables, including Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.86 yuan/gram, down 1.86 yuan or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [4]. Market Outlook - The high bond yields in the US and Japan have not suppressed the gold price, highlighting gold's role as a hedge against central bank credit and its status as an alternative to overseas sovereign bond allocations, with a clear medium - term upward trend [2]. Position Analysis - As of May 20, COMEX gold managed funds' net long positions increased by 6,402 lots to 107,629 lots, and COMEX silver managed funds' net long positions rose by 2,112 lots to 30,445 lots [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Gold: Hold existing long positions and buy on dips after a significant price correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 836 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Wait and see for now. It has strong upward momentum only when the Fed makes a clear dovish statement. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Summary - The report provides a detailed summary of key gold and silver data, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventories of COMEX and SHFE gold and silver, as well as their daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [6].