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热点思考 | 失业保险,如何更好保障失业群体?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-04 14:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's unemployment insurance system and how it can be improved to effectively support the unemployed through a closed-loop system of "ensuring livelihood, promoting training, and assisting employment" [1] Group 1: Current State of Unemployment Insurance System - The unemployment insurance fund primarily consists of insurance premiums and plays a significant role in counter-cyclical adjustment, with expenditures increasing by 22.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - The fund's income is mainly derived from unemployment insurance premiums, with 89.5% of income from 2018 to 2023 coming from employer and employee contributions [2][18] - Expenditures focus on basic living security for the unemployed, with unemployment insurance benefits and medical insurance fee payments accounting for 32% and 8% of total expenditures from 2018 to 2023, respectively [2][24] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Unemployment Insurance System - The coverage rate of unemployment insurance exceeded 50% in 2023, but the coverage for key groups such as migrant workers remains significantly low, with only 19% of new flexible employment positions covered by social insurance [4][33] - The beneficiary rate of unemployment insurance has been below 5% overall, with only 3% in 2023, indicating that less than 15% of the unemployed population benefits from the insurance [4][39] - Some regions face significant pressure on the balance of unemployment insurance funds, with 9 regions having a sustainability period of less than 24 months in 2023 [5][48] Group 3: International Experience in Unemployment Insurance - International unemployment insurance systems can be categorized into four types: mandatory unemployment insurance, non-mandatory unemployment insurance, unemployment relief, and dual unemployment insurance systems [6][54] - Germany's dual unemployment insurance mechanism combines unemployment insurance and unemployment relief, covering over 90% of the workforce, while Japan also has a robust dual system with significant fiscal support for unemployment policies [7][58] - The U.S. system features a federal-state dual structure with flexible experience-rated tax adjustments, incentivizing employers to maintain stable employment [7][71] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the effectiveness of the unemployment insurance system, it is recommended to expand coverage, especially for new employment forms, and to improve the beneficiary rate by optimizing application conditions [7][75] - Implementing an "experience-rated" model could provide local governments with the flexibility to adjust policies based on regional conditions [7][75] - Gradually establishing a dual system of "basic insurance + unemployment relief" could alleviate funding pressures and ensure basic living standards for long-term unemployed individuals [7][75]
“反脆弱”系列专题之十一:失业保险,如何更好保障失业群体?
Group 1: Current Status of Unemployment Insurance System - The unemployment insurance fund in China plays a significant counter-cyclical role, with expenditures increasing by 22.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024[2] - By the end of 2023, the unemployment insurance fund's annual surplus turned positive at 32.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative surplus of 334.2 billion yuan by the end of 2024[2] - Approximately 90% of the unemployment insurance fund's income comes from employer and employee contributions, with the contribution rate capped at 1%[3] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Unemployment Insurance System - The coverage rate of unemployment insurance exceeded 50% in 2023, but key groups like migrant workers have significantly lower coverage rates, with only 19% for new flexible employment positions compared to 55.4% for traditional jobs[4] - The beneficiary rate of unemployment insurance remains low, at only 3% in 2023, with less than 15% of the unemployed population receiving benefits[4] - Local regions face increasing pressure on the balance of unemployment insurance funds, with only 3 regions reporting negative annual balances in 2023, down from 30 regions in 2020[5] Group 3: International Experience and Recommendations - Internationally, mandatory unemployment insurance systems are the mainstream model, with countries like Germany achieving a coverage rate of over 90%[6] - Germany's dual unemployment insurance system combines unemployment benefits and social assistance, providing a robust safety net[6] - Recommendations for China include expanding coverage to new employment forms, improving beneficiary rates, and considering a dual system of basic insurance and unemployment assistance[7]