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摩根大通戴蒙:美国真正的威胁在“内敌”,财政支出和QE会让债市崩溃
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-30 20:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government’s excessive spending and the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing (QE) policies have created a ticking time bomb for the bond market, leading to a potential collapse [2] - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, expressed uncertainty about the timing of the impending crisis, suggesting it could occur in six months to six years, and emphasized the need for a change in the debt trajectory and market-making capabilities [2] - Dimon highlighted concerns about global deficit spending and indicated that the bond market might experience a "small kerfuffle" that would necessitate Federal Reserve intervention [2] Group 2 - Dimon identified "internal enemies" as the greatest threat to the U.S., emphasizing the need for the country to address its own management issues, values, and capabilities [3] - He called for improvements in government licensing, regulation, immigration, taxation, urban education, and healthcare systems, suggesting that resolving these issues could boost the U.S. economic growth rate to 3% [3] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government deficit was approximately $2 trillion last year, accounting for about 7% of GDP, with Dimon warning that this could rise to 10% if the country enters a recession [3] Group 3 - Dimon supports taxing arbitrage trading, aligning with recent efforts by the Trump administration to close tax loopholes in this area [4] - He suggested that the revenue from such taxes could be used to increase income tax credits, potentially benefiting individuals without children, with an estimated additional cost of $60 billion [4] - Dimon also stated that the U.S. should not allow significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions and urged Congress to pass tax legislation before focusing on other growth issues [5]