这不是印钞，但比印钞更危险。正常情况下，买债、调流动性是央行行为，但现在特朗普推出了"总统版QE"，绕过了美联储的利率和资产购 买体系。它比QE更危险的地方在于——让"货币宽松"脱离了央行体系，变成行政指令。QE至少还有FOMC会议、投票、纪要，而现在是总统 一句话，政府金融机构立刻执行。 执行者是谁？房利美和房地美。 来源：华尔街情报圈 特朗普绕过了美联储的降息程序，亲自"下场放水"（印钞）。这不是传统意义上的QE，但效果和逻辑几乎一模一样，甚至更直接。 特朗普在Truth Social上宣布：动用2000亿美元，买入抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），目标只有一个——压低房贷利率，让买房更便宜。 钱从哪来？它们账上已经攒了2000亿美元现金。 可以把它理解成一个非常直白的过程：政府控制的机构，用账上现金，大规模买入MBS，推高债券价格，压低房贷利率。这和2008、2020年 美联储QE的传导路径一模一样，区别在于权力边界被打破了。 特朗普想压房价，赢选票。结果是推房价，需要更强刺激，更大QE，更弱货币，更高资产。 投资者瞬间明白：有"无限买家"要进场了，这也是昨晚美股期货、黄金、白银、比特币突然拉升的原因。 这不 ...

2026年开年，美联储正处于政策走向与领导层更迭的双重关键节点。 一边是特朗普政府持续加码的降息施压，美财长贝森特与美联储官员接连发声，呼吁美联储应该扩大宽 松力度。 而另一边，现任主席鲍威尔5月任期届满，接班人遴选已进入最后阶段，特朗普称敲定人选却秘而不 宣。 更令人瞩目的是，特朗普直接推出2000亿美元抵押贷款债券购买计划，以行政手段插手市场利率，在美 联储政策之外开辟"第二战线"。 他高调表示，"我们正在重拾被上一届政府破坏的'美国梦'，让美国重回荣光。" 降息150个基点 在特朗普的持续施压下，降息已成为当前美国经济政策讨论的核心议题。 周四，米兰明确表态，预计2026年将降息150个基点，核心依据是核心通胀率有望维持在2.3%的温和水 平，为进一步降息提供了空间。 "核心通胀率的波动已接近我们的目标区间，这是中期整体通胀走势的一个良好信号。" 他进一步解释，当前约100万美国人处于失业状态，但如果他们就业，并不会引起不必要的通胀，劳动 力市场的疲软亟需政策提振。 据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测，美联储今年可能小幅降息以应对劳动力市场下行风险，预计年 末利率将降至3.4%并维持至2028年，同时预 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国住房金融局局长比尔・普尔蒂（Bill Pulte）向英国《金融时报》表示，此次债券购买将由房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）联合执行。 这两家政府支持企业的核心职能是收购放贷机构的住房抵押贷款，并将其重新打包为抵押贷款支持证券。 "我们将充分借助房利美的力量，扭转前总统乔・拜登（Joe Biden）过去四年造成的损害，具体举措包括但不限于战略性、大规模购入抵押贷款债券。"普 尔蒂说道。 他补充称，这项举措无需获得国会批准。 特朗普在"真实社交"平台发文称，他正"指示相关代表购买价值2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券"。 "此举将推动房贷利率下降、月供金额降低，从而提高民众的购房能力。"特朗普在周四下午写道，"这是我为恢复住房可负担性推出的多项举措之一，而住 房可负担性恰恰是拜登政府一手摧毁的。" 他补充说，自己首个任期内决定不出售房利美和房地美，使这两家机构得以积累"2000亿美元现金"，而他之所以宣布这一决定，正是"基于此原因"。 美国总统特朗普宣布，将启动一项规模达2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买计划，试图压低房贷利率。 ...

First, Trump short-circuited the Fed's rate-cut process. Now he is going after QE by launching his own version of it. In a post on late Thursday post on Truth Social, President Trump said he was directing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds, which he framed as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election.“This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” Trump wrote in his post.He added that his ...

2026 十大研判 20260105 2026 年 A 股市场将在康波萧条期迎来繁荣，大盘指数大概率创新高。 建议关注有色金属、新消费/大众消费、高端制造以及国产算力链条。 Q&A 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是人民币汇率升值驱动，实体部门的现金 流量表已经改善，资产负债表也有望得到修复。随着美联储重启降息，跨境资 本将加速回流中国，这将带来 PPI 和 CPI 相继走出通缩。2025 年只是牛市的 前菜，而 2026 年将迎来估值和盈利的戴维斯双击。预计美联储可能会进行量 化宽松（QE），而中国央行也可能实施大规模化债政策，从而快速修复实体部 门的资产负债表。 为什么认为 2026 年是中国回归繁荣的起点？ 2018 年，中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式进入工业化成熟期。这一阶段类 似于 1,945 年的美国和 1975 年的日本，制造业拥有强劲的对外出口能力，可 以赚取大量国民财富并改善内需消费景气。因此，从 2019 年开始，中国就进 入了康波萧条期作为追赶国的繁荣期。然而，由于美联储激进加息导致跨境资 本外流，以及房价暴跌导致居民和企业部门 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. financial system is experiencing significant liquidity tightening, with the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage reaching a record $74.6 billion by the end of 2025, indicating a strong demand for short-term funding [1][3][13] - The liquidity tightening is attributed to a combination of factors including the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuilding, and seasonal pressures [6][13] Group 1: Current Liquidity Conditions - As of December 31, 2025, SRF usage hit $74.6 billion, with Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as collateral, reflecting increased year-end pressure [3][4] - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) was reported at 3.71% on December 30, 2025, nearing the Fed's upper limit of 3.75%, indicating liquidity stress [3][4] - Bank reserves decreased to approximately $3 trillion by the end of 2025, down from a peak of $4.3 trillion in 2021, primarily due to QT and TGA management [4][6] Group 2: Causes of Liquidity Tightening - QT has been a major driver of liquidity tightening, with the Fed reducing its balance sheet and removing excess liquidity from the system [6][7] - The TGA rebuilding has exacerbated liquidity withdrawal, with significant increases in TGA balances following the debt ceiling crisis [6][7] - Seasonal factors, particularly year-end window dressing, have led banks to reduce leverage and hoard cash, further tightening liquidity [7][8] Group 3: Market Impact - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of approximately 0.25% at year-end, reflecting investor caution amid rising financing costs [8] - Gold and silver prices benefited from increased safe-haven demand, with gold prices rising above $2000 per ounce [8] - The bond market saw an overall increase in yield curves, with short-term Treasury bill yields approaching SOFR levels, indicating heightened funding costs [8] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program in December 2025, planning to purchase about $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly to maintain adequate reserves [10][11] - The SRF has effectively acted as a ceiling tool, preventing a freeze in the repo market despite high usage levels [10][11] - The Fed's interventions are seen as timely and targeted, with the RMP expected to stabilize SOFR within the target range [10][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The liquidity environment in 2026 will depend on various factors, including potential seasonal effects and global geopolitical dynamics [12][13] - If liquidity tightening persists, it may lead to increased financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises, potentially impacting consumption and investment [9][12] - Overall, the liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, but monitoring of reserve thresholds will be crucial to ensure system resilience [12][13]

芝商所本周第二次提高贵金属期货保证金要求，试图为近期暴涨的贵金属市场降温。 周三现货白银应声下跌，跌破72美元关口，日内跌幅超过5%。其他贵金属也纷纷下跌，现货钯金跌超7%，报1497.75美元/盎司。现货铂金跌超7%，报 2038.55美元/盎司。 芝商所在12月30日的公告中表示，黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金将在周三收盘后上调，这项决定基于"市场波动性以确保足够的抵押品覆盖率"的评 估。 这是该交易所一周内第二次采取此类措施，前一次上调已于周一生效。 此次保证金上调意味着交易员在交易贵金属期货时需要提供更多抵押品，将直接限制市场杠杆使用。这一监管动作引发投资者警惕，市场开始担忧此轮贵金属 涨势能否持续。 历史案例已为当前市场敲响警钟：2011年白银崩盘与1980年亨特兄弟（Hunt Brothers）逼仓失败表明，当交易所开始出手限制杠杆时，往往意味着狂欢接近尾 声， 是市场逆转的前兆。 交易所密集出手控风险 市场正在将贵金属作为对冲"AI泡沫"和货币贬值的工具。 然而，历史案例已为当前市场敲响警钟。 2008年金融危机后，美联储实施零利率和量化宽松（QE），导致实际收益率跌入负值。白银作为高贝塔值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the Federal Reserve's initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting has sparked optimism for a "QE-style" liquidity easing, but in reality, it marks the end of the QE era rather than a restart [1] Group 1: RMP and Normalization of Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has entered a new phase of "normalization" in balance sheet expansion with the announcement of RMP, which slightly exceeded expectations but aligns with liquidity management needs [2] - By the end of 2025, reserves are expected to have declined to an ample level, necessitating early balance sheet expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [2] - RMP will be implemented starting December 12, with an initial scale of $40 billion, expected to remain high until April 2026, after which it may slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [2] Group 2: Nature of RMP vs. QE - RMP is fundamentally a technical operation aimed at assisting effective monetary policy implementation without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy [3] - While both RMP and QE lead to balance sheet expansion, they differ fundamentally; RMP is a routine liquidity management operation, whereas QE is a broader "yield curve management" strategy [3] - RMP is not a new tool, having been implemented after the end of balance sheet reduction in October 2019, and its pace of normalization may align with nominal GDP growth rates [3] Group 3: Conclusion on QE - The report concludes that the Fed is unlikely to restart QE before returning to a zero or near-zero interest rate environment, as the internal order of monetary easing dictates that rate cuts are more effective in stimulating demand prior to hitting the zero lower bound [4] - Historical instances of QE-like balance sheet expansions occurred only after reaching zero interest rates, indicating that the Fed may need to wait for the next crisis to consider restarting QE [4] - In conventional monetary policy ranges, interest rates serve as the primary indicator of policy stance, making it unnecessary to focus excessively on the Fed's balance sheet operations [4]

大洋彼岸的白银市场正陷入癫狂。12月26日周五，现货白银飙升逾10%，逼近80美元/盎司关口，COMEX白银期货周涨幅接近18%。 这一轮"金属狂潮"不仅局限于白银，黄金已突破4550美元，铜价跟随沪铜创下历史新高，铂金和钯金亦录得双位数涨幅。市场正在定价"商品控制权"的新叙 事，以及将其作为对冲"AI泡沫"和货币贬值的工具。 然而，在疯狂的行情背后，历史的警钟已经敲响。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）已于12月12日将白银保证金上调了10%。 2011年白银崩盘与1980年亨特兄弟 （Hunt Brothers）逼仓失败的历史案例表明，当交易所开始出手限制杠杆时，往往意味着狂欢接近尾声。 与此同时，国内也已采取行动。北京时间12月26日，上海期货交易所发布通知，将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，并相应上调交易保证金比 例。这是继12月10日上调保证金、12月22日限制日内开仓数量及调整手续费之后，上期所本月内针对白银期货出台的第三轮风控措施。 对此，中信建投期货和国信期货的分析师指出，尽管存在长线利多因素，但短期快速上涨显然过度交易了预期。资金"抢跑"导致投机情绪高涨，市场犹如"高空 走钢丝"。 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in controlling short-term interest rates, which have been behaving unpredictably, leading to concerns about the adequacy of reserve dollars in the banking system [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Control - The Federal Reserve aims to manage the money market in the U.S., but some short-term interest rates have deviated from their preferred levels, indicating a potential loss of control [2][4]. - The Fed's recent decision to resume purchasing treasury bills at a rate of $40 billion per month is seen as a response to these challenges, although it is not officially labeled as quantitative easing (QE) [4]. - Historical context is provided, noting that in September 2019, a key interest rate spiked to around 10%, significantly above the Fed's target of 2%, prompting the Fed to intervene by buying $60 billion in securities monthly [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Public Confidence - There are questions about whether the public and financial markets have lost confidence in the Federal Reserve due to its inability to control interest rates effectively [5]. - The article suggests that the ongoing fiscal management issues, including the government's approach to spending and revenue, are becoming increasingly concerning for market participants [12][13]. - The potential impact of upcoming Supreme Court decisions on market sentiment is also mentioned, with expectations that it may not significantly affect the bond and stock markets [9][10].