1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market has a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the increase of crude oil prices in the near future, and the arbitrage should mainly be reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply - side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 218.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.1 million tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3 million tons (1.9%). After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week. During the Spring Festival, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the shipment volume decreased significantly. The national shipment volume decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons, at a relatively low level. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. There is a possibility that domestic refineries will obtain Venezuelan crude oil, but the import volume is still significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran may affect the supply of Iranian raw materials, and there are concerns about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March. China's imports of Iranian asphalt are small, and imports from the UAE, Iraq and other Middle - East countries account for about 6% of the total asphalt imports [1] - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong increased, but the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 129 yuan/ton [1][3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 4.69% to 3,639 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,502 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,676 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,198 to 110,860 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some major refineries in the South have intermittent production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the period from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year in 2025, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in January - November 2025. As of the week of February 27, the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased after the Spring Festival holiday, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [1][4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. Although the asphalt plant inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival, the asphalt refinery inventory rate was still at the lowest level in recent years [4]