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同庆楼(605108):富茂推进异地扩张,期待2H弹性释放
HTSC· 2025-09-01 07:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.33 billion RMB in 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.67%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 72 million RMB, down 11.06% year-on-year [1][6]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 638 million RMB, up 10.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20 million RMB, up 34.08% year-on-year, indicating resilience in operations despite a challenging restaurant environment [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in new locations, with expectations for profit elasticity to be released in the second half of 2025 as the wedding season approaches and new stores ramp up operations [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's restaurant and accommodation revenue was 1.17 billion RMB, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.4%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. - The food business generated 150 million RMB in revenue, up 6.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 59.2%, down 5.2 percentage points [2]. - The company’s operating expenses showed a slight decrease in sales and management expenses, while financial expenses increased due to significant capital expenditures for the new hotel [2]. Expansion Strategy - The company opened six new direct-operated stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 133 stores [3]. - Seven out of eight existing hotels have achieved profitability, validating the feasibility of its expansion strategy [3]. - The "banquet + accommodation" model is expected to drive synergy with the restaurant and food businesses, enhancing profit growth [3]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price is set at 27.50 RMB, reflecting a shift to 2026 earnings estimates due to anticipated recovery in operations [4]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 0.68, 1.10, and 1.51 RMB, respectively, indicating a downward revision of 21%, 20%, and 14% from previous estimates [4][10].