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国债期货日报-20251110
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 11:14
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and then quickly rebounded. T and TL contracts rose during the mid - day session but then declined. Except for TS which slightly fell, other varieties closed higher [1]. - The funding market tightened, with DR001 rising to 1.48%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.99 billion yuan, with a net injection of 4.16 billion yuan [1]. Important Information - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown [2]. Market Outlook - The A - share market rose slightly today with increased trading volume, but the bond market was not significantly affected [3]. - The inflation data for October released over the weekend showed some improvement, which might be the reason for the lower opening of bond futures. However, the sustainability of inflation improvement is questionable, and it does not currently pose a major negative impact. The bond market is generally strong [3]. - This week, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of data such as October social financing, investment, and consumption. The market's overall expectations for these data are not high [3]. - Maintain a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions as appropriate [3]. Group 3: Data Summary Contract Price and Position Changes | Contract | Price on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Price on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Position on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Position Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS2512 | 102.466 | 102.472 | - 0.006 | 85,232 | 83,418 | 1,814 | | TF2512 | 105.93 | 105.92 | 0.01 | 172,702 | 175,280 | - 2,578 | | T2512 | 108.485 | 108.475 | 0.01 | 291,294 | 289,749 | 1,545 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 116.03 | 0.27 | 184,847 | 180,551 | 4,296 | [6] Basis and Transaction Volume Changes | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Basis Change | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Volume Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS | - 0.0267 | - 0.0403 | 0.0136 | 24,929 | 26,289 | - 1,360 | | TF | - 0.025 | - 0.0264 | 0.0014 | 49,109 | 44,485 | 4,624 | | T | 0.0205 | 0.0795 | - 0.059 | 58,830 | 54,915 | 3,915 | | TL | 0.1987 | 0.0885 | 0.1102 | 96,097 | 99,783 | - 3,686 | [6]