Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in inflation, employment, and consumer confidence [2][4][6][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US core PCE in January reached its highest level since March 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][16]. - The ADP report indicates a steady growth in employment, with an average increase of 15,500 jobs per week [16]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a three-month low of 55.5 in March, down from 56.6 in February [16]. - The JOLTS job openings increased significantly by 396,000 to 6.946 million in January, surpassing expectations [16][17]. - Japan's wholesale inflation continued to slow, with the domestic corporate goods price index rising by 2% year-on-year in February [5][17]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index fell sharply to -3.1 in March, down from 4.2 [6][17]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index rose to 2.62% for the week ending March 7, indicating an uptick in economic activity [7][20]. - Germany's WAI index also improved, reaching 0.01% for the week ending March 8, up from -0.09% [21]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.2% year-on-year for the week ending March 6, down from 7.0% [24]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11% as of March 12, up from 6.00% the previous week [25]. Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment report showed no change, with a cumulative addition of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks [27]. - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 213,000 for the week ending March 7, down from 214,000 the previous week [30]. - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decrease, with a weekly average of 104.5, indicating a decline in job openings [32]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising to 365.79, a 3.9% increase from the previous week [35]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.36 per gallon as of March 9, reflecting a 16.6% rise from the previous week [35]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.133, down from 0.150 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed mixed results, with the yen to dollar swap basis improving while the euro to dollar swap basis deteriorated [39]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone widened, indicating increased risk perception [41][43].

Economic Data and Events - In the past week, US housing prices remained flat, while consumer confidence and inflation exceeded expectations. The S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with expectations and previous values. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February was reported at 91.2, significantly above the expected 87 and previous value of 89. The January PPI year-on-year was 2.9%, better than the expected 2.6% but lower than the previous 3% [11][12]. - In the Eurozone, economic sentiment was below expectations, with the February Economic Sentiment Index at 98.3, lower than the expected 99.8 and previous value of 99.3 [11]. - Japan's retail sales and inflation also exceeded expectations, with January retail sales up 1.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 0.1% and a previous value of -0.9%. The Tokyo Core CPI for February was reported at 1.8%, above the expected 1.7% and previous value of 2% [11]. Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US Economic Activity Index (WEI) showed an upward trend, with a value of 2.65% for the week ending February 21, compared to 2.89% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 2.6% [15]. - The German Economic Activity Index (WAI) remained stable at 0.05% for the week ending February 22, with a four-week moving average of 0.05% [15]. Demand - The US Redbook Commercial Retail Sales growth rate showed a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% for the week ending February 20, down from 7.2% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 6.78% [19]. - In the real estate sector, US mortgage rates decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 5.98% as of February 26, down from 6.01% the previous week. Mortgage application numbers showed a slight increase, with the MBA Market Composite Index at 340.2, reflecting a 0.4% week-on-week change [21]. Employment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims for unemployment benefits were better than expected. Initial claims rose to 212,000 for the week ending February 26, compared to an expected 215,000 and a previous value of 208,000. Continuing claims decreased from 1.864 million to 1.833 million, against an expected 1.858 million [26]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed Job Vacancy Index at 104.47 as of February 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [30]. Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index showing a week-on-week increase of 0.5% as of February 27. US gasoline prices continued to rise, reported at $2.80 per gallon for the week ending February 23, reflecting a week-on-week increase of approximately 0.2% [33]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed marginal deterioration. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was reported at 0.504 on February 27, down from 0.61 the previous day and 0.648 the week before. The Eurozone index also declined to 1.528 from 1.594 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal deterioration, with the euro to dollar three-month swap basis significantly declining to 0.38 basis points from 2.38 basis points the previous week [39]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar bonds surged to 284.0 basis points on February 27, widening from 271.8 basis points the previous day and 262.1 basis points the week before [40]. - The US-Japan yield spread narrowed to 185.2 basis points as of February 26, while the US-Europe spread remained stable at 127.3 basis points. The Italian-German yield spread continued to narrow, reported at 58.9 basis points [45]. Fiscal Data - As of February 26, cumulative federal spending in the US was approximately $1.3 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%. This compares to $1.2 trillion in the same period last year, which had a growth rate of 8.1% [50].

Group 1 - German government bonds remained stable, underperforming Italian bonds amid a narrowing overall yield spread, while Germany issued 12-year and 15-year bonds [1][4] - The stock market rebound has weakened demand for core fixed-income assets, although European government bonds still slightly outperform U.S. and U.K. government bonds [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that while officials have regained control over price levels, vigilance against risks is still necessary [1][5] Group 2 - A Bloomberg survey indicated that over half of the economists polled expect ECB President Christine Lagarde to leave before the end of her term [5] - U.K. government bonds experienced a steepening bear market amid a day of light data [6] - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene emphasized that the BoE does not need to "follow the Fed" and should focus on factors determining the U.K. inflation outlook [6] Group 3 - The yield on German government bonds changed little, standing at 2.71% [2][6] - Italian 10-year government bond yields decreased by 1 basis point to 3.31% [3][6] - The Italian-German bond yield spread narrowed by 1 basis point to 60 basis points [3][7] - French 10-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 3.26% [3][8] - The yield on 10-year U.K. government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 4.32% [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - UK government bond prices have slightly increased as a hawkish Bank of England official highlighted the sluggish economic growth, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut next month [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Catherine Mann, a rate-setting official at the Bank of England, stated that the UK economy is "sluggish" and "weak," with high inflation leaving consumers with "trauma," resulting in reduced spending [1][7]. - Traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut rates by a total of 48 basis points this year, slightly up from about 46 basis points over the weekend [2][8]. - Upcoming UK employment data, expected to show a slowdown, may reinforce rate cut speculation, while CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday [3][9]. Group 2: Market Performance - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds fell by 2 basis points to 4.39% [5][12]. - German 10-year government bond yields decreased by 1 basis point to 2.75%, with trading remaining light [4][11]. - Italian 10-year government bond yields also dropped by 1 basis point to 3.36%, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened by 1 basis point to 61 basis points [5][11]. - French 10-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 3.33% [5][11].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US and Japan, highlighting significant trends in housing sales, employment, and inflation [2][10] - It emphasizes the mixed signals in the US economy, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [2][4] Group 1: Important Data Review - US January existing home sales fell significantly, with an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-over-month, against an expectation of a 4.15 million unit decline [12] - The US non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year [12] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to implement tax cuts, including a proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food and beverages for two years, potentially reducing tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen annually [13] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) rose to 2.70% for the week ending February 7, up from 2.21% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [15] - Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) also increased to 0.10% for the week ending February 8, compared to 0.02% the prior week [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.5% year-over-year for the week ending February 6, down from 6.7% the previous week [18] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, down from 6.11% the previous week [23] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with 26,000 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 24, up from 20,000 the previous week [28] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from 232,000 the previous week [31] - The number of job vacancies fell, with the Indeed job vacancy index averaging 103.5, down from 104.2 in December [36] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 306.54, down 1.0% week-over-week and 4.2% over the past two weeks [6] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.77 per gallon, up 0.8% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.537, down from 0.755 the previous week [46] - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -20.1909 basis points, down from -17.9347 basis points the previous week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan [52]

Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's announcement to significantly increase its bond issuance this year has led to a surge in the 30-year government bond yield, reaching a 15-year high of 3.56% [1][8]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 4 basis points, marking the highest level since 2011 [1][8]. - The yield curve has steepened as longer-term German bonds underperform compared to shorter-term bonds, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year bond yields reaching the highest level in nearly seven years [1][8]. - The German government plans to raise €512 billion (approximately $604 billion) through bond issuance to fund infrastructure upgrades and military modernization [1][8]. Group 2: Other Government Bonds - The yield on German 7-year bonds is anticipated as investors await the upcoming issuance [9]. - The German bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.89% [10]. - German government bond futures fell by 28 points to 127.66 [11]. - The Italian 10-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.50% [12]. - The spread between Italian and German bonds narrowed by 1 basis point to 61 basis points [13]. - The French 10-year bond yield increased by 2 basis points to 3.47% [14]. - The UK 10-year bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.52% [15].

Group 1 - European government bonds declined, following the downward trend of U.S. Treasuries, as traders reduced bets on U.S. interest rate cuts [1][6] - Short-term German bond yields increased more than long-term yields [2][7] - German bonds faced pressure ahead of the issuance of debt maturing in 2035 [3][8] Group 2 - Market updates indicate that German bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.87% [5][10] - German bond futures fell by 24 points to 127.93 [5][10] - The yield on Italy's 10-year bonds increased by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the Italy-Germany bond spread remained stable at 62 basis points [5][10] - French 10-year bond yields rose by 3 basis points to 3.45% [5][10] - The yield on 10-year UK bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 4.50% [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current economic indicators in the US, Eurozone, and Japan, noting low unemployment claims in the US, rising commodity prices, and upcoming key economic data releases [2][4][10]. Group 1: Important Economic Data - For the week of January 26-30, US durable goods orders for November exceeded expectations, and December PPI also surpassed forecasts [4][17]. - Eurozone's Q4 GDP and December unemployment rate were better than expected [4][18]. - Japan's December industrial output was above expectations, while January Tokyo CPI fell short [4][20]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index rose to 2.49% for the week of January 24, up from 2.16% the previous week [5][22]. - The German WAI index remained low, at 0.04%, showing slight improvement from the previous week [5][22]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rate increased to 7.1%, up from 5.5% the previous week [6][26]. - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US was stable at 6.1%, with a slight decline in mortgage applications [6][29]. Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly below expectations at 209,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.827 million, better than anticipated [7][31][32]. - Job vacancy numbers showed stability, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 104.4, slightly lower than December's average [31][35]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices saw a significant increase but experienced a notable pullback on Friday. The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose by 2.5% week-on-week [8][36]. - US gasoline prices continued to rebound, reaching $2.75 per gallon, up 1.7% from the previous week [8][36]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened slightly, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.775, down from 0.812 [9][38]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with minor changes in swap basis for both yen and euro against the dollar [9][40]. Group 7: Fiscal - As of January 29, US federal funds cumulative expenditure was approximately $532.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% [10][49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].