意大利政府正以一笔双档期欧元国债发售开启其2026年融资计划，竭尽全力借助对其主权债务的愈发强劲投资者需求， 并在欧洲其他重要经济体面临政治环境不确定性之际重塑资金流向。相比处于"悬浮议会(hung parliament)+少数派政 府"状态的法国，以及联盟党(基民盟/基社盟)和社会民主党(社民党)组成的德国执政联盟并不团结且在议会中只拥有非常 微弱的多数席位，意大利政治局势以及经济增长趋势显得更加积极，吸引欧洲乃至全球资金流向意大利国债市场。 意大利国债(BTP)近一年多以来，可谓从"欧债外围风险代表"转向"资金更愿意配置的主权资产之一"，在法国、德国等 国政治与财政不确定性上升的背景下，相对成为欧洲固定收益以及低风险资金的"重要缓冲器或者避震器"，这一趋势最 直观的数据体现就是意大利与德国国债利差历史性收窄：意大利10年期BTP相对德国国债利差已降至仅仅约66bp，一举 创下2008年以来最低(该指标长期被视为意大利主权风险"温度计")。 据媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，该国计划出售一只全新的7年期基准主权债券，同时将其2026年4月30日到期的 绿色主权债券增发50亿欧元(大约58亿美元)。来自德国 ...

随着公共假期后欧洲市场恢复交易，欧洲债券上涨，意大利国债领涨。 本轮债券上涨推动德国10年期国债收益率跌至12月8日以来的最低水平。 德国国债的表现也优于同期限的利率互换，市场关注荷兰养老基金改革计划，预计将对这些基金规模庞 大的互换头寸产生影响。 市场： 德国国债收益率跌4个基点，至2.83%； 德国国债期货涨38点，至127.84； 意大利10年期国债收益率跌5个基点，至3.50%； 意大利-德国国债利差缩小2个基点，至67个基点； 法国10年期国债收益率跌4个基点，至3.52%； 随着公共假期后欧洲市场恢复交易，欧洲债券上涨，意大利国债领涨。 本轮债券上涨推动德国10年期国债收益率跌至12月8日以来的最低水平。 德国国债的表现也优于同期限的利率互换，市场关注荷兰养老基金改革计划，预计将对这些基金规模庞 大的互换头寸产生影响。 市场： 10年期英国国债收益率跌2个基点，至4.49%。 责任编辑：李桐 德国国债收益率跌4个基点，至2.83%； 德国国债期货涨38点，至127.84； 意大利10年期国债收益率跌5个基点，至3.50%； 意大利-德国国债利差缩小2个基点，至67个基点； 法国10年期国债收益率跌 ...

固收-年度展望专题汇报 20251208 摘要 近期债市调整受交易情绪和机构行为影响，非基本面或流动性压力。公 募基金避险，银行自营配置，大型银行重购超长端债券，认可配置价值。 未来银行和保险公司对 30 年期国债的介入预计增加。 当前 30 年期国债具备配置价值，绝对位置和利差位置均相对到位，银 行自营已开始介入。30 年国债税后收益与房贷税后收益大致持平，显示 较高配置价值。 30-10 年期国债利差已从历史低位上行至约 40BP，但居民杠杆率和地 产周期未明显好转，利差上行空间有限，预计不会显著走陡，当前水平 较为合理。 超长期限国债供给将继续增加，但增量不会显著超前两年。需求端存在 不确定性，但机构仍能消化大量供应，整体压力可控，不会显著恶化。 预计 2026 年财政政策将继续发力，供给端有超常规增量，但需求端不 确定性较大。长期来看，10 年以上国债和地方债存量占比提升，需求端 仍需观察，预计货币政策将保持宽松。 Q&A 近期市场表现及其背后的主要因素是什么？ 近期市场，尤其是上周的市场，最突出的变化是超长端利率债的调整幅度超出 预期。主要原因在于市场情绪的集中冲击和机构行为层面的互动。尽管消息面 ...

美国多维度就业高频指标低位趋稳 。 ①新增就业： ADP 周度新增就业低位企稳。 ②失业 ： 初请失业金人数回落（降幅好于预期），续请失业金人数回 升（升幅超预期）。 ③职位空缺 ：职位空缺数低位趋稳。 截至 12 月 12 日， INDEED 职位空缺指数为 104.66 ，较前一周环比 -0.2% 。 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 报告摘要 （一）过去一周重要经济和数据及事件 美国： 多项经济数据超预期，包括 3 季度实际 GDP 环比折年率以及个人消费环比、 11 月工业产出增速、 12 月里士满联储制造业指数。但消费信心以 及耐用品订单增速不及预期。 欧元区 ： 西班牙 11 月同业 PPI 环比低于前值，意大利 11 月 PPI 环比高于前值。 日本 ： 通胀和工业产值低于预期。 （二）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 重点关注 1 月 2 日下午 17:00 公布的 12 月欧元区制造业 PMI ，以及 22:45 公布的 12 月标普全球美国制造业 PMI 。 （三） 周度经济活动指数 美国 ...

德国国债收益率下跌1个基点，追随了美国国债走势，此前美国失业率升至四年来最高。 市场： 英国国债周二表现逊于欧美同类债券，此前12月PMI数据显示了英国经济前景更加光明。 英国债券盘中跌幅收窄，但最终收盘走低，收益率曲线全线上涨1-2个基点；交易员关注焦点转向周三 公布的英国通胀数据。 德国国债收益率变化不大，为2.85%； 德国国债期货跌3个点至127.55%； 意大利10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至3.55%； 意大利-德国国债利差扩大2个基点至70基点； 法国10年期国债收益率跌2个基点至3.55%； 英国债券盘中跌幅收窄，但最终收盘走低，收益率曲线全线上涨1-2个基点；交易员关注焦点转向周三 公布的英国通胀数据。 德国国债收益率下跌1个基点，追随了美国国债走势，此前美国失业率升至四年来最高。 市场： 德国国债收益率变化不大，为2.85%； 德国国债期货跌3个点至127.55%； 意大利10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至3.55%； 意大利-德国国债利差扩大2个基点至70基点； 10年期英国国债收益率上涨2个基点至4.52%。 责任编辑：丁文武 英国国债周二表现逊于欧美同类债券，此前12月PMI数据显示了 ...

每经AI快讯，12月3日，意大利与德国10年期国债利差降至70个基点，为2010年以来首次。 ...

Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the US and Europe, highlighting mixed signals in various economic indicators, with a tightening financial environment and stable consumer demand [2][4]. Economic Activity - The US WEI index shows a decrease, with the latest value at 2, down from 2.27 the previous week [5][15]. - The German WAI index has increased to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week [5][15]. Consumer Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has slightly rebounded to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45% [19]. - Mortgage rates in the US remain stable, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.24% [21]. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index is at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week [25]. - US gasoline prices have rebounded slightly to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week [25]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe are tightening, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.511, down from 0.514 the previous week [30]. - Offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8 basis points [33]. - Credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91 basis points [36]. Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan and US-Europe bond spreads have narrowed, with the US-Japan spread at 240.5 basis points [38]. - The Italian-German bond spread has also narrowed to 75.5 basis points [38].

Economic Indicators - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45%[5] - The WEI index for the US fell to 2, down from 2.27 the previous week, indicating a decrease in economic activity[4] - The German WAI index rose to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week, suggesting improved economic conditions[4] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US decreased to 0.511 from 0.514 a week earlier, indicating tighter financial conditions[7] - The offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8bp, worsening from -24.3bp a week prior[8] - The credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91bp, compared to 2.96bp a week earlier[9] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index stood at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week[6] - US gasoline prices rebounded to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week[6] Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan government bond spread narrowed to 240.5bp from 241.6bp the previous week[10] - The 10-year Italian-German bond spread decreased to 75.5bp from 76bp a week earlier, indicating reduced risk perception in the Eurozone[10]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, supported by government bond yield differentials and technical factors, leading to uncertainty in the currency's direction [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, maintains an accommodative stance to support recovery, while the new Prime Minister, Sanna Takagi, continues "Abenomics," reducing expectations for interest rate hikes by year-end [1] - The policy interest rate in Japan is 0.5%, with a differential of over 300 basis points compared to the US Federal Funds Rate, attracting funds for carry trades that support the exchange rate [1] - Despite weaker data in October raising the probability of a Fed rate cut to 60%, the resolution of the government shutdown has improved risk appetite, diminishing the safe-haven demand for the yen [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate is in a consolidation phase, with the 154 level being crucial for both bulls and bears; after hitting a low of 152.80 on November 7, the rate rebounded to 154.49 on the 14th, indicating solid support [2] - Technical indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI remaining above 50, and the 20-day moving average around 152.52 providing dual support; a pullback to this level may attract buyers [2] - Resistance levels are identified at 154.48 and 154.83; a breakthrough above 154.83 could target the 155 level, with some institutions predicting a potential rise to 160 by year-end [2]