宏观事件冲击
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宏观事件冲击加大 预计玻璃期货下行幅度将受限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-27 06:07
Market Review - The main contract for glass futures rose by 0.09% in the night session last Friday [1] Fundamental Summary - As of October 23, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide reached 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% month-on-month, marking three consecutive weeks of increase post-holiday and reaching a three-month high. Year-on-year, the inventory increased by 16.99%, with inventory days at 28.3 days, up by 1 day from the previous period [2] - As of October 24, the mainstream transaction price for 2.0mm coated glass was around 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream transaction price for 3.2mm coated glass was around 20 yuan per square meter, also stable, with some transactions having a negotiation space of about 0.5 yuan per square meter [2] - From October 17 to October 23, excluding long-stopped samples, the operating rate of Chinese LOW-E glass sample enterprises was 73.4%, remaining stable month-on-month. Including all samples, the operating rate was 43.7%, significantly lower than the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that the market is experiencing inventory accumulation, and recent macro events have increased market volatility. In a weak fundamental environment, attention should be paid to news that may stimulate demand again [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that weekend glass spot prices continued to decline, with negative feedback from the midstream sector leading to ongoing inventory accumulation. While petroleum coke and coal production lines remain profitable, natural gas operations are at a loss, with daily melting running at high levels. The situation regarding the centralized use of Zhengkang coal gas in Shahe is under continued observation. Processing orders are insufficient, with downstream purchases primarily driven by essential needs, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to complete orders by year-end. The weak reality persists, but the expected downside is limited under low valuation conditions, suggesting a focus on selling shallow out-of-the-money put options [3]