当地时间3月4日，美股开盘高开低走，道指一度转跌，随后回升。截至发稿，纳指涨1%，道指涨0.42%，标普500涨0.56%。 科技股普遍反弹走高，美光科技、闪迪涨超4%，特斯拉、亚马逊涨近3%，英伟达涨超1%。 消息面上，美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，美国将发布"一系列公告"，以支持波斯湾石油运输畅通。此前，美国总统特朗普周二称，如有必要，美国将为 穿越波斯湾的油轮提供保险，并派遣美国海军护送油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡。 德意志银行的吉姆·里德在报告中写道："当前市场处于'紧盯新闻标题'的阶段，昨日多种相互矛盾的消息每小时都在改变市场情绪。从市场角度看，关键 问题是双方都没有缓和局势的迹象，若有的话，紧张局势仍在升级。" （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中概股多数上涨，截至发稿纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.83%，再鼎医药、世纪互联涨超4%，小马智行涨逾3%，哔哩哔哩、晶科能源涨超2%。 国际金价涨超1%，纽约原油期货和布伦特原油期货双双下跌。 伦敦金(现货黄金) CFD 期 XAU 5142.28 +54.12 +1.06% 03-04 23:20:00 今开 5109.84 最高 5206.09 持仓量 5084.20 ...

Stock Performance - On February 23, 2026, Huabei Green Gold Co., Ltd. (02450.HK) experienced a stock price fluctuation, closing down 4.52% at HKD 3.80, with a volatility of 7.04% [1] - The stock reached a high of HKD 4.01 after opening but subsequently fell to a low of HKD 3.73 [1] - The MACD histogram turned negative at -0.016, and the KDJ indicator showed a J value of 90.096, indicating a technical correction after a short-term overbought condition [1] Capital Flow - Despite a total net inflow of HKD 29,800 on that day, there was no net inflow from major funds, with retail investors dominating the trading (average price of HKD 4.00) [2] - The Hong Kong construction materials sector rose by 1.81% during the same period, but the stock's performance diverged from the sector, likely due to low liquidity (turnover rate of 0.26%) and short-term profit-taking [2] Business Developments - In November 2025, the company signed a three-year strategic agreement with Shenzhen Phoenix Co., Ltd. to explore cooperation in property management and asset operation, though specific progress has not been announced [3] - In December 2025, the controlling shareholder completed a restructuring (Huabei Hongjian Construction Engineering was renamed to Xinghuai Holdings and transferred to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), but this did not directly affect the listed company's operations [3] Company Fundamentals - The mid-2025 report indicated that the company generated revenue of HKD 127 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, but still reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.8 million (a year-on-year reduction in loss of 63.7%) [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is negative at -53.56, reflecting ongoing profitability pressures [4] Summary - The stock price movement is primarily attributed to technical overbought corrections and market sentiment fluctuations, with a need to monitor future business cooperation developments and performance improvement [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market sentiment fluctuates, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. The news of Indonesia's coal RKAB production quota cut mainly affects market sentiment, with little impact on China's coking coal supply pattern. The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, and prices are mainly affected by market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuation - The rebound of coal and coke futures prices is due to the news of Indonesia's coal RKAB production quota cut, which boosts market sentiment. However, Indonesia mainly produces thermal coal, and the impact on coking coal and anthracite is small. From 2022 to 2025, thermal coal accounted for over 98% of Indonesia's coal exports to China, so the reduction in Indonesia's exports has little impact on China's coking coal supply pattern [2]. Supply Side - This week, domestic coal mines are gradually shutting down for the holiday. Mines in Yunnan and Jinzhong, Shanxi have shut down earlier, with a significant decline in production. Next week, around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month, private coal mines will enter the peak shutdown period, and production will drop sharply. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 192.5 million tons and 75.5 million tons respectively, down 5.3 million tons and 1.6 million tons from the previous week. Although the expected reduction in coal production supports coal prices, the production cut is in line with past years' patterns, and downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no continuous upward - driving force [2]. Demand Side - Steel mill production is relatively stable, with the average daily pig iron output maintained at around 2.28 million tons [2]. Other Influencing Factors - Indonesia's suspension of exports and the fact that the US and India regard coking coal as strategic minerals have led to the strengthening of coking coal futures prices, but the actual impact on China's supply is very limited [2].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 2 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：沃什被提名为联储新主席 引发金银市场风险释放 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅回撤后多空争夺剧烈 高波动行情谨慎参与 18 | | 铜：沃什提名美联储主席，铜价快速回撤 19 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 20 | | 电解铝：警惕资金离场风险 20 | | 铸造铝合金：市场流动性收紧 铝合金随板块回调 21 | | 锌：关注市场情绪变化 22 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：官方 PMI 不及预期 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应总体宽松 | 盘面仍有压力 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates during its meeting on December 9-10, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may also announce a rate cut in its meeting later in December [2] - The BOJ has been under pressure to raise rates due to inflation exceeding its 2% target for 44 consecutive months, with the BOJ Governor hinting at this possibility [2] - A divergence in policy paths between the Fed and BOJ could lead to market volatility, especially if the BOJ raises rates after the Fed cuts [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices opened higher but faced resistance around the $4270-$4280 range, with profit-taking occurring ahead of key U.S. employment and inflation data [5] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, largely dependent on U.S. interest rate cuts, with support levels identified at approximately $4066 and stronger support at $3990 [5] - Oil prices are difficult to predict due to ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, with current U.S. crude oil trading around $58.50 per barrel, above the support level of $57.90 but below the resistance level of $59.30 [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Economic data will play a crucial role in assessing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed, with upcoming reports on private sector employment, layoffs, and initial jobless claims being key indicators [8] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to be released on Friday, will be a focal point for measuring inflation and could impact rate cut expectations [8]

Market Review - The main contract for glass futures rose by 0.09% in the night session last Friday [1] Fundamental Summary - As of October 23, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide reached 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% month-on-month, marking three consecutive weeks of increase post-holiday and reaching a three-month high. Year-on-year, the inventory increased by 16.99%, with inventory days at 28.3 days, up by 1 day from the previous period [2] - As of October 24, the mainstream transaction price for 2.0mm coated glass was around 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream transaction price for 3.2mm coated glass was around 20 yuan per square meter, also stable, with some transactions having a negotiation space of about 0.5 yuan per square meter [2] - From October 17 to October 23, excluding long-stopped samples, the operating rate of Chinese LOW-E glass sample enterprises was 73.4%, remaining stable month-on-month. Including all samples, the operating rate was 43.7%, significantly lower than the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that the market is experiencing inventory accumulation, and recent macro events have increased market volatility. In a weak fundamental environment, attention should be paid to news that may stimulate demand again [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that weekend glass spot prices continued to decline, with negative feedback from the midstream sector leading to ongoing inventory accumulation. While petroleum coke and coal production lines remain profitable, natural gas operations are at a loss, with daily melting running at high levels. The situation regarding the centralized use of Zhengkang coal gas in Shahe is under continued observation. Processing orders are insufficient, with downstream purchases primarily driven by essential needs, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to complete orders by year-end. The weak reality persists, but the expected downside is limited under low valuation conditions, suggesting a focus on selling shallow out-of-the-money put options [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to a surge in gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of the bullish trend in gold [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Prices - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is closely linked to geopolitical risks. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, while tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continue to escalate. These factors are driving investor demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [3]. Favorable Factors for Gold Bullish Trend - **Global Economic Uncertainty**: Signs of slowing global economic growth are becoming more apparent, with major economies facing recession risks. Poor economic data from the U.S. has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **Expectations of Monetary Policy Easing**: The Federal Reserve has raised inflation expectations while lowering growth forecasts, hinting at potential interest rate cuts. This easing monetary policy could lead to currency depreciation, further supporting gold prices [5]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are increasing their gold reserves, which boosts physical demand and strengthens gold's position in the international monetary system [6]. Challenges Facing Gold Bulls - **Potential Easing of Geopolitical Risks**: If geopolitical tensions ease through negotiations, investor demand for gold may decline, leading to price corrections. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine talks illustrate this potential shift [7]. - **Uncertainty in Dollar Performance**: The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices is typically negative. A strengthening dollar, driven by positive U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed signals, could pressure gold prices [9]. - **Market Sentiment Volatility**: Investor sentiment significantly impacts gold prices. Changes in market dynamics or reduced concerns over geopolitical risks could weaken bullish sentiment in the gold market [10]. Technical Analysis Outlook - Recent price movements have seen gold break through key resistance levels, suggesting a strengthened bullish outlook. If gold can maintain levels above $3,435 or $3,500, the bullish trend may continue, potentially reaching new highs [11]. Timeframe for Gold Bullish Trend - The bullish trend in gold is expected to persist in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks. However, any signs of easing tensions could lead to a rapid market response. In the medium to long term, factors such as global economic uncertainty, easing monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases are likely to provide solid support for gold prices [12].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The net long position in gold decreased by 9,857 contracts to 115,865 contracts, indicating a cautious market sentiment towards gold prices, possibly due to a stronger dollar or reduced safe-haven demand [1] - The net long position in silver increased by 5,078 contracts to 31,252 contracts, reflecting optimistic expectations for silver prices, likely driven by improved industrial demand or differentiation in the precious metals market [1] - Copper's net long position rose by 3,424 contracts to 20,013 contracts, suggesting increased confidence in global economic recovery and industrial demand [1] Group 2: Energy Market - The net long position in WTI crude oil slightly increased by 2,716 contracts to 116,599 contracts, showing a moderate optimism among speculators regarding oil prices, though the increase is limited, indicating ongoing market uncertainty [1] - In contrast, the net long position in natural gas significantly decreased by 14,904 contracts to 185,432 contracts, reflecting concerns over weak demand or rising inventories [1] Group 3: Forex Futures Market - The euro maintained a high net long position of 75,797 contracts, indicating relative confidence in the eurozone economic outlook [2] - The net long position in the British pound was 23,959 contracts, reflecting moderate optimism regarding the UK economy or monetary policy [2] - The net long position in the Japanese yen reached 179,212 contracts, suggesting speculation on yen appreciation or its use as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Swiss franc showed a net short position of -24,314 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment among speculators [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Market - The overall net short position in U.S. Treasuries decreased by 22,131 contracts to 85,556 contracts, indicating a relief in expectations for bond price declines [2] - Specifically, the net short position in 2-year Treasuries significantly decreased by 91,618 contracts to 1,206,377 contracts, while the 5-year Treasuries saw an increase in net short position by 101,110 contracts to 2,292,544 contracts [2] - The net short position in 10-year Treasuries decreased by 34,569 contracts to 871,537 contracts, while the ultra-long Treasuries saw an increase in net short position by 3,792 contracts to 251,394 contracts [2] Group 5: Agricultural Market - In the agricultural market, the net short position in corn increased by 10,541 contracts to 53,357 contracts, and in wheat, it increased by 24,997 contracts to 116,587 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment towards these crops [3] - The net long position in soybeans slightly decreased by 59 contracts to 5,768 contracts, while cotton's net short position decreased by 11,387 contracts to 41,232 contracts [3] - Cocoa's net long position increased by 917 contracts to 6,375 contracts, and coffee's net long position rose by 3,952 contracts to 29,618 contracts, while sugar's net short position decreased by 1,467 contracts to 43,268 contracts [3] Group 6: Market Sentiment - The changes in these positions reflect a divergence in market sentiment, providing investors with important insights into market trends [4]