Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price broke through the oscillation range and is expected to rise mainly due to entering the interest - rate cut cycle, mine - end disturbances, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - demand season expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened and closed higher today. During the holiday, the Fed's shutdown due to a lack of funds increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and the copper price rose. After the holiday, copper prices increased significantly. The US September "small non - farm" ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the expected increase of 50,000 and the previous value of 54,000. Investors expect overseas liquidity to remain loose, and the Fed's independence is in doubt, supporting the copper price to enter an upward cycle. Mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama intensified supply concerns. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 50,500 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. It is expected that the subsequent production will continue to decline. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI strengthen downstream expectations during the peak - demand season [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, with the closing price at 86,750 yuan/ton. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On September 25, 2025, the LME official price was $10,771/ton, and the spot premium was - $33/ton [4] Supply - side Situation - As of September 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $40.3/ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.03 cents/pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 29,700 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons from the previous period; as of September 29, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; LME copper inventory was 139,500 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous period; COMEX copper inventory was 335,500 short tons, an increase of 1,947 short tons from the previous period [7][10]