铜：坚定看好铜板块投资机会及铜框架梳理 20250825 摘要 配置。从需求端来看，随着 8 月份淡季结束，从 9 月份开始将进入交易旺季， 到整个四季度需求预计会比三季度尤其是 7~8 月份更好。今年三季度由于抢出 口和光伏抢装等因素导致需求透支严重，加上高温天气使得 7~8 月成为传统淡 季，但实际数据表现优于预期。 铜价与权益市场之间存在何种关系？ 在降息周期中，尽管铜价上涨弹性不需要太高，但权益市场表现可能会更好。 例如，在 2019 年美元指数首次降息后，虽然当年下半年铜价涨幅不算太高， 但相关股票表现却远好于铜价。因此，我们认为在当前及未来一段时间内，即 使铜价上涨有限，其相关股票仍具有较大的投资价值。 四季度有色金属板块，尤其是铜，前景乐观。紫金矿业和洛阳钼业为标 配标的，重点关注同有色，因其明年铜矿增量最大且估值最低，并具潜 在分红提升逻辑。 国内电解铜月供应约 180-190 万吨，需求波动于 170-210 万吨间。 2025 年国内需求强劲，受益于下游冷库需求和电解铜出口，电力、汽 车和家电为主要用铜行业。 全球铜供给持续紧张，2025 年预计精炼铜产量增速约为 2%，新增供应 有限。铜 ...

随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反 响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去 九个月——这已经是一段不算短的政策空窗期了。那么，在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美 股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇 总： 如上图所示，自从1970年以来，美联储总共经历过11次在降息周期中暂停——"等待5至12个月"后再次 降息的案例。 在这些案例中，重启降息后1个月和3个月的美股表现，其实并不算优秀——标普500指数平均分别录得 了0.9%和1.3%的跌幅。 不过，如果把周期拉长到1年，则美股依然足以轻松取得不俗表现。Detrick在帖子中指出，在过去11次 美联储在重启降息前等待5至12个月的案例里，标普500指数在随后的1年中10次出现了上涨，平均涨幅 达到了12.9%。 尽管历次行情波动的具体原因不尽相同，但Detrick认为投资者心理可能是影响因素之一 ...

布莱克本市场分析师林·特兰在一篇评论中写道，比特币的近期前景将主要取决于即将公布的美国经济 数据，包括初步的国内生产总值数据和核心个人消费支出通胀数据。如果这些数据继续显示美国经济放 缓且通胀缓解，美联储就有更充分的理由开启降息周期。特兰表示："这种情况将营造出流动性充裕的 环境，有利于比特币的复苏。"不过，如果数据意外"火热"，投资者可能会保持防御姿态，延长短期的 回调。比特币最新上涨 0.2%，至 112，981 美元。 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

变化正在出现：站在指数新高看行情未来驱动 受制于低景气度的大部分权重资产仍在估值低位，因此，盈利改善预期的兑现显然是下个阶段市场的主 要驱动。而在经过今年以来的"反内卷"后，企业净利率的下限已经确认(2025年2月)，宏观层面上PPI- PPIRM所代表的企业利润空间也在修复，同时，截至7月份，二产用电量已经连续5个月修复，换言 之，"量"、"利"的修复已经持续了整个二季度，目前公布的中报能够一定程度上佐证盈利改善的扩散。 往后看，降息周期开启或将使上述改善加速，8月在降息预期大幅升温的背景下，欧美制造业PMI均超 预期，而金融条件的宽松从历史上来看将加强制造业强于服务业的特征，在这一特征下，单位GDP的实 物消耗会明显上升，实物资产需求迎来顺风；其次，欧美"供应链安全"诉求下的制造业投资或成为下一 个阶段的主线，替代已经持续2年高增且与科技巨头经营性现金流净额增速走势相背离的AI投资。全球 的定价分水岭出现：从巨头经营现金流驱动的AI投资走向利率下行带来的更广义的制造业投资。 下一站：制造业顺周期 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，在市场创10年新高之际，投资者不应该陷入"存款搬 家"的自我循环论 ...

2025年8月21日早盘A股三大指数涨跌不一，交通运输ETF（159666）上涨0.59%持续走强，近两个 交易日流入405万元，成分股广深铁路、春秋航空、连云港翻红。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 今年1至7月，全国农村公路完成固定资产投资2062.4亿元，新改建农村公路5.1万公里，已完成全年 目标任务的51%。"十四五"前4年，全国农村公路新改建71.6万公里，总里程达464.4万公里，较"十三 五"末增长6%。 东兴证券认为，长期看，降息周期中高速公路板块的得益于其业绩稳定，分红意愿高的特点，在较 长一段时间里有望维持强势。 交通运输ETF（159666）及其联接基金（019405/019404）是全市场唯一跟踪中证全指运输指数的 ETF基金，交通运输板块中的一些公司具备高股息、低估值和稳健业绩的特征，其涵盖了A股市场包括 物流、铁路公路、航 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the precious metals sector [8] Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.6%, with gold performing the worst at -3.9% and copper showing a better performance at -3.0% [4][17] - The report highlights a long-term bullish outlook for gold assets driven by central bank purchases, particularly from China and India, with a net purchase of 244 tons in Q1 2025 [7][49] - Short-term market expectations suggest a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, which may support gold prices [7][51] - Silver is transitioning from an "industrial sidekick" to a "value protagonist," driven by structural growth in industrial demand and awakening financial attributes [7][51] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review of Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a weekly performance drop of 3.6% [17] - Among individual metals, gold declined by 3.9%, while copper showed a decline of 3.0% [4][21] 2. Weekly Tracking of Precious Metal Indicators - Gold prices on the SHFE saw a weekly change of -0.5%, while silver prices changed by -0.1% [5][24] - The latest gold-silver ratio is at 87.6%, continuing to decline, indicating potential for silver to catch up [34][51] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for gold, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of lower real interest rates [7][49] - Silver's investment logic is driven by increasing industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, alongside a potential recovery in the gold-silver ratio [51][49] 4. Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for leading companies in the sector, indicating varied performance across different firms [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The overseas market is facing a weak US economic fundamental. The Sino - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12, and the US CPI in July met expectations. In the future, with tariffs taking effect in August, the marginal inflection point of the previous concentrated overseas demand release is approaching, and the economic fundamental will test the sustainability of market sentiment. Personnel changes within the Fed and next week's US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest - rate cuts and risk appetite [7]. - Domestic macro: At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan; RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.66 trillion yuan. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - Asset views: Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit - repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities but focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds; slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest - rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the inflection points of policies and data in the second half of August [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4163.8, down 0.17% daily, up 1.97% weekly, 2.63% monthly, 11.36% quarterly, and 6.19% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures closed at 2829.6, up 0.38% daily, up 1.59% weekly, 1.89% monthly, 7.67% quarterly, and 5.66% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures closed at 6380.2, down 1.11% daily, up 2.46% weekly, 4.18% monthly, 16.03% quarterly, and 12.07% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures closed at 6929.2, down 1.04% daily, up 2.88% weekly, 5.98% monthly, 19.75% quarterly, and 18.48% year - to - date [3]. - Treasury futures: 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102.348, down 0.02% daily, down 0.04% weekly, flat monthly, down 0.20% quarterly, and down 0.61% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.665, down 0.08% daily, down 0.17% weekly, down 0.06% monthly, down 0.53% quarterly, and down 0.82% year - to - date; 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.325, down 0.10% daily, down 0.29% weekly, down 0.15% monthly, down 0.55% quarterly, and down 0.55% year - to - date; 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 117.88, down 0.33% daily, down 1.21% weekly, down 1.04% monthly, down 1.73% quarterly, and down 0.80% year - to - date [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.7884, unchanged daily, down 0.49% weekly, down 2.26% monthly, down 1.80% quarterly, and down 9.86% year - to - date; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.1337 [3]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.51; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.73, up 0.8 bp daily, up 3.4 bp weekly, up 3 bp monthly, up 7.3 bp quarterly, and up 0.1 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.29, up 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 9 bp monthly, unchanged quarterly, and down 26 bp year - to - date; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.57, up 6 bp daily, unchanged weekly, up 13 bp monthly, up 2 bp quarterly, and up 24 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year breakeven inflation rate was 2.38, down 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 4 bp monthly, up 11 bp quarterly, and up 7 bp year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Commodity Market Fluctuations - Metals: Gold closed at 778.7, up 0.13% daily, down 1.16% weekly, up 1.09% monthly, down 1.49% quarterly, and up 26.08% year - to - date; silver closed at 9286, down 0.15% daily, up 0.09% weekly, up 3.09% monthly, up 11.56% quarterly, and up 24.31% year - to - date; copper closed at 78950, down 0.54% daily, up 0.59% weekly, up 1.17% monthly, up 2.73% quarterly, and up 7.02% year - to - date; aluminum closed at 20715, down 0.36% daily, up 0.15% weekly, up 1.00% monthly, up 4.12% quarterly, and up 4.73% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 62.74, down 0.54% daily, down 0.96% weekly, down 9.54% monthly, down 0.68% quarterly, and down 12.70% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil closed at 65.74, down 0.56% daily, down 0.87% weekly, down 8.41% monthly, down 0.14% quarterly, and down 12.15% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas closed at 2.819, up 1.33% daily, down 5.91% weekly, down 9.06% monthly, down 10.73% quarterly, and down 22.41% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Agriculture: CBOT soybeans closed at 1042, up 0.94% daily, up 5.63% weekly, up 5.23% monthly, down 1.63% quarterly, and up 3.17% year - to - date; CBOT corn closed at 396.75, up 0.57% daily, down 2.28% weekly, down 4.11% monthly, down 18.03% quarterly, and down 13.51% year - to - date; CBOT wheat closed at 507, up 0.45% daily, down 1.65% weekly, down 3.24% monthly, down 6.93% quarterly, and down 7.99% year - to - date; etc. [3]. 3.3 Asset Views and Short - Term Judgments - Financial: For stock index futures, growth opportunities are spreading, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for stock index options, offensive strategies are being laid out, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for Treasury futures, the bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are oscillating strongly, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward [8]. - Shipping: For container shipping to Europe, focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Black building materials: Steel prices are fluctuating due to cost changes, with a short - term judgment of volatile; iron ore prices are oscillating with a slight decline in hot - metal production, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension, with a short - term judgment of volatile; aluminum prices are continuing to recover with fluctuating sentiment, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil prices are facing supply pressure with eased geopolitical concerns, with a short - term judgment of volatile downward; LPG prices are stable in cracking spreads supported by chemical demand, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10]. - Agriculture: For oils and fats, the short - term market sentiment is cooling, but there is a high probability of continued strength in the medium term, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for protein meals, the bullish sentiment is being released, and the market may oscillate and adjust, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10].

Core Insights - The recent unemployment claims data presents a complex signal regarding the labor market's adjustment under policy pressures, with initial claims decreasing to 224,000, below market expectations of 228,000, indicating a continuation of low volatility trends [1] - Despite a cooling hiring sentiment due to economic uncertainties from tariff policies, employers have not initiated large-scale layoffs, as evidenced by the average monthly job additions of only 35,000 over the past three months [1] - The continuing high level of continuing claims at 1.95 million suggests that some unemployed individuals are facing prolonged job search periods, aligning with predictions of a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Policy and Market Reactions - Recent data has prompted policy changes, including the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director following significant downward revisions of employment data for May and June, with a controversial nominee, EJ. Anthony, proposed for the position [1] - Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although rising service sector inflation and tariff-induced price pressures may influence the pace of policy adjustments [1] Regional Employment Trends - The four-week moving average of initial claims remains stable at 221,800, while actual claims in regions like Massachusetts have shown an uptick, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets [2]

Core Points - US stock futures fell by approximately 0.1%, while major European indices opened mostly higher [1][11] - The Japanese stock market declined, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 1.4% and the Topix index down by 1.1% [3] - The US Treasury yields mostly decreased, with both 2-year and 10-year yields down by over 1 basis point [4] - The British GDP for Q2 exceeded expectations with a growth of 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts [5] - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude rising over 0.4% to above $62.20 [8][18] - Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant gains, with Bitcoin rising over 2% to above $121,800 and Ethereum rising over 3% to above $47,700 [9][10] Market Reactions - The US dollar index initially fell by nearly 0.2% but later turned to an increase [4][12] - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.7%, marking its largest gain in nearly two weeks [1] - Gold prices remained stable, with spot gold slightly up by over 0.2% [6][15] - Silver prices showed minimal movement, with spot silver remaining flat [7]