点击上图▲立即报名 你的企业现在处于哪个发展阶段？该激进扩张还是收缩聚焦？是存量升级还是增量开拓？答案全在周期里。 9 月 19 日— 21 日，" 2025 ·吴晓波激荡讲堂"秋季课之《周期与中国企业战 略范式》在辽宁大连精彩开讲。 伴随着潮 汐的起伏，吴老师以诸多新鲜企业经营案例为引，推演中国企业发展战略范式，通过对三大周期的逐一拆解，探讨行之 有效的应对法门。 我们特别邀请到张伟俊老师，他是中国大陆首位把提升企业一把手领导力作为全职工作的"总裁教练"。 他以沉浸式案例 演练的方式，带领同学们解析经济底层逻辑和规律，共同探寻企业的发展之路。 这次课程 是 激荡讲堂开办 三年 以 来 听讲同学 人数最多的一 次。除了有连续三年打卡的 "资深同学"，邀请亲友、伴 侣共同进步的"团体型同学"，我们还迎来了多位热情向学的 95 后，更有同学专程从澳大利亚飞到大连上课。 跨越年龄、跨越地域，同学们在这次美好的相遇中邂逅同频、同价值的同行人，激发出诸多感悟： "我跟着吴老师去了很多地方，他是能让我牢牢坐在位置上耐心听课的老师。这次来到大连，我又收获良多，两个字总 结：真香！" "这次我是从澳洲专程回国来参加激荡讲堂， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing sensitivity to the "macro environment" and the importance of understanding economic cycles and uncertainties in the context of China's economic landscape [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Uncertainty - Experts have been exploring the concept of "cycles" and "uncertainty," particularly in light of China's rapid economic growth and the recent slowdown [4]. - The current economic phase in China is characterized as a "triple overlap" period, involving a shift in growth speed, structural adjustments, and the digestion of previous stimulus policies [4]. - The historical context shows that China's economy has experienced unprecedented growth, but the cyclical nature of economies means that downturns are inevitable [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Patterns and Lessons - Historical economic patterns indicate that crises and downturns have occurred repeatedly, suggesting that current challenges are not unique but part of a larger cycle [8][10]. - The article references Howard Marks and Ray Dalio, emphasizing that understanding historical cycles can help navigate current uncertainties [8][10]. - The global economic landscape today mirrors past crises, with issues such as debt, low interest rates, and geopolitical tensions [10]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Businesses - Companies must navigate three overlapping cycles: macroeconomic cycles, industry life cycles, and corporate life cycles [13][15]. - Understanding these cycles is crucial for businesses to adapt their strategies and avoid being marginalized in changing industries [15]. - The current environment is marked by low growth and intense competition, necessitating a strategic focus on leveraging cycles for competitive advantage [15][16]. Group 4: Educational Initiatives - The article promotes a course titled "Cycles and Chinese Enterprise Strategic Paradigms," aimed at helping business leaders understand and apply cycle thinking to their strategies [10][19]. - The course will cover macroeconomic cycles, industry life cycles, and the pitfalls within corporate life cycles, providing actionable insights for navigating the current economic landscape [19][28].