以黄金、白银、铜为代表的有色金属板块近期迎来一轮行情，其涨幅让"周期"字眼成为市场瞩目的焦 点。然而，在汇丰晋信基金的基金经理郑小兵看来，市场的喧嚣往往伴随着风险。他认为，当前部分热 门有色品种的行情可能已行至中后期，自己会保持谨慎。但这并不意味着他看淡周期，恰恰相反，在他 看来，"万物皆可周期"，以周期的视角审视，中国市场正涌现出越来越多的投资机遇。 近期，拟由郑小兵管理的汇丰晋信周期优选基金正在发行。这位身上带有鲜明"左侧"与"深度研究"标签 的基金经理，希望将自己淬炼的系统性框架应用于更广阔的"泛周期"领域。他不再局限于传统的有色、 化工等狭义周期，而是旨在通过一套四维度投资框架——宏观定方向、产业趋势定行业、个股权衡安全 与弹性、市场情绪定买卖点——去主动优选那些处于周期底部、具备高性价比的机会，在市场的认知分 歧中，安静地做一名价值的"摆渡人"。 四维框架下的坚守 郑小兵的投资世界，有一套严密且经过市场验证的四层架构支撑。 首先是宏观定方向。这在于判断全球经济所处的"水位"，为其投资提供大的背景板。在他的分析中，对 2026年的展望细致拆解了美国、欧洲、中国的经济现状。例如，他认为美国经济短期面临下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].

科创创业ETF国泰（588360）跟踪的是科创创业50指数（931643），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从 科创板与创业板中选取市值较大的50只新兴产业上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映代表性新兴产业的 整体表现。指数聚焦于电子、电力设备、通信、医药生物等行业，强调科技属性和创新成长性，行业配 置相对均衡。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2月24日，科技行情节后启动，科创创业ETF国泰（588360）收涨超1.1%。 华创证券指出，科技+顺周期仍是市场主线，节奏上科技有望率先启动。春节期间国内科技产业催化不 断：国产大模型的普及和应用显示居民对AI的接受度持续提升，中国AI大模型有望实现弯道超车；同 时，四家机器人企业登上春晚展示，显示出中国人形机器人产业在集群控制、硬件制造和量产能力上的 优势。从配置看，康波周期下的科技博弈有望继续打开估值上限，短期受益于产业催化，机器人、AI 相关产业链有望率先反应。结构上应关注算力硬件、AI应用、机器人、智能驾驶、储能等领域。 ...

地缘风险持续升温，美伊第二轮间接谈判刚结束，美国即向中东增派第二支航母打击群，威胁加码。与此同时，俄军对基辅发动大规模导弹袭击。地缘冲突 升温直接推升油价避险溢价，国际油价再度突破70美元大关。石油板块持续吸金，聚焦全产业链工具石油ETF近20日净流入超21亿元。 事件聚焦：美伊博弈成油价核心变量 本周石油市场的事件驱动特征极为鲜明，核心焦点仍是美伊博弈的反复与升级。 据新华社消息，美国和伊朗第二轮间接谈判于2月17日在瑞士日内瓦举行。会后伊朗外长表示"双方仍需要进一步沟通"——这一表态本身即暗示分歧犹存。 更关键的是，谈判尚未降温，美国便从加勒比海向中东地区调遣第二支航母打击群，威胁同步加码。与此同时，俄军22日凌晨对基辅州展开大规模导弹与无 人机袭击，已造成人员伤亡。两大地缘热点同时升温，市场对供应中断的担忧迅速转化为风险溢价。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2026/1/1-2026/2/23 银河证券表示，地缘冲突对油价的影响取决于两大要素——一是冲突是否涉及全球主要产油国，二是是否对关键原油运输通道构成实质性威胁。伊朗恰恰兼 具产油国与霍尔木兹海峡控制者的双重战略身份，这使得任何围绕伊朗的局势动荡， ...

Group 1 - The article outlines seven major events expected to occur by 2026, including significant interest rate cuts in the US and China, the explosive growth of AI applications, and increased geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The AI revolution is in its early stages, with large-scale deployment of GPUs and computing centers leading to a significant drop in costs, resulting in the commercialization of super applications by 2026 [3][5] - The article emphasizes that AI is not just a trend but a transformative force, likening its impact to a tsunami rather than a mere windfall, marking the beginning of a fourth technological revolution [3][5] Group 2 - The upcoming bull market is driven by three strong forces: continuous monetary easing, a new wave of technological revolution, and ample liquidity, characterized as a confidence bull market [5][6] - The capital market is tasked with three historical missions: developing new productive forces, aiding in major power technological competition, and repairing household balance sheets [5] - The article encourages a long-term perspective, focusing on essential trends and making decisive actions rather than relying solely on hard work [7]

Core Viewpoint - The oil sector and oil prices have garnered significant market attention, with Brent crude oil prices rising over 10% since the beginning of the year, driven by rapid fluctuations and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Oil Price Review and Outlook - Oil is considered the lifeblood of industry and a primary source of fuel and chemical raw materials in modern society, with its price fluctuations significantly impacting global geopolitics [1] - Historical oil price surges have often been triggered by supply disruptions and geopolitical conflicts, such as the oil crises in the 1970s, which were marked by military actions and subsequent price hikes [3] - Recent oil price increases have been primarily due to supply constraints, influenced by OPEC's misjudgments and a surge in demand from emerging economies [4] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The oil market has experienced years of volatility, with recent trends showing that geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics are increasingly influencing oil prices [4] - Recent strong performance in oil prices, particularly in late January, has been attributed to various geopolitical events and rising metal prices, which have positively affected overall commodity market sentiment [5] - The current market consensus suggests that the upward potential for oil prices outweighs the downside risk, with many investors viewing the $60 per barrel level as a solid support [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The oil sector is likened to a call option on oil prices, as rising oil prices typically boost the stock prices of companies involved in oil extraction, production, and processing [5] - Investors are increasingly considering the oil sector as a viable investment option due to its relative undervaluation compared to other commodities, as indicated by the historical high gold-to-oil and copper-to-oil ratios [10] - The oil sector is viewed as a potential investment opportunity within the broader commodity cycle, particularly during periods of economic recovery and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7]

从油价走势关联到油气产业，石油产业链主要分为上游的勘探、开采、生产，以及下游的炼化环节，若通过指数对油气产业进行布局，产业链的上中下 游其实都会涉及到。整体来看，当下布局石油板块的股票，相当于买入油价的看涨期权。原因在于，无论是上游的开采环节，还是炼化、油服设备、油 运等领域，都会受到油价上涨的整体情绪提振，市场对各环节的未来表现也会形成向好预期。从康波周期来看，正如刚才所说，在这一商品大周期中， 原油价格相对滞涨，整个油气产业都在紧盯油价的上行趋势，筹备进一步的产业投资，同时对后续盈利改善抱有期待。此外，无论是投资者还是产业 端，都对原油供给过剩的叙事真实性存有一定怀疑，这也让石油产业链的上中下游都显现出一定的投资机会。 再看中证油气产业指数的历史表现，该指数自基日以来，业绩表现跑赢市场主流同类指数，尤其在行业景气上行周期，具备较强的上涨弹性。2008年、 2014年的行业周期中，该指数的上行弹性均优于其他同类指数，能为投资者带来更好的投资体验。需要注意的是，指数的过往业绩不代表未来表现，投 资者需谨慎选择投资标的。 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 近五年 | 近三年 | 近一年 | | --- | --- ...

近期，国际油价在美伊紧张局势反复等多重因素交织下呈现波动，油价短期逻辑已进入地缘溢价主导。油价震动中，资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链 工具石油ETF（561360）涨超2%，近20日吸金超20亿元。 短期逻辑：地缘溢价主导，油价易涨难跌 短期油价已脱离单纯的基本面定价，进入"地缘消息驱动"模式。市场交易的不是当下的库存，而是未来供应中断的概率。任何风吹草动都可能引发油价脉冲 式上行。 当前油价的定价权，已阶段性让渡给地缘政治。申银万国将其概括为"地缘主导、基本面托底"。这意味着两重含义： 第一，上行风险远大于下行风险。如果美伊发生任何形式的摩擦，或霍尔木兹海峡运输受到实质性干扰，油价将迅速突破当前区间。即使事件不落地，仅仅 是"谈判可能破裂"的消息，就足以驱动油价单日暴涨。 综上，原油市场的供需天平正在从"弱平衡"向"紧平衡"倾斜。过剩叙事正在被库存数据证伪，市场定价权正从看空者向看多者转移。 中长期逻辑：从"周期品"向"战略资产"的价值重估 第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复了几成，而是"伊朗的铀浓缩进度""美军在波斯湾的 部署密度""委内瑞拉总 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

3.1 美国股市：盈利驱动的延续与扩散 主流投行对2026年美股走势形成较强共识，目标点位集中于7500-8000区间（标普500），较当前水平具备9%-17%的上涨空间，为近十年来 预期最集中的水平之一。 证券时报网消息，美伊局势依然紧张。 中国新闻网报道，据最新消息，美国五角大楼周边披萨店活动量激增。目前"披萨指数"（Doughcon）警戒等级为3级。有分析认为，华盛 顿五角大楼附近披萨店的生意兴隆，似乎与世界各地发生的各种军事和地缘政治事件有关。 在新年中展望2026年，全球金融市场也正处于一个关键的康波转折点。所以临近春节，就先聊一些更宏观、大类资产的一些想法和布局。 本期内容篇幅较长，共分三期、本文为第三期，各位读者朋友可收藏保存。 【下篇】 2026年大类资产的判断： 重点关注十大主流方向 2026年权益资产配置策略可概括为：把握美国盈利韧性、着重关注日本结构性机会、精选新兴市场成长标的。在整体估值偏高的背景下， 贝塔收益空间受限，超额回报将更多依赖于对核心主题与区域的精准识别与布局。 企业盈利增长是核心支撑。花旗预测2026年标普500每股收益（EPS）增速达16.3%，高于市场平均预期的13. ...