文｜谢忠涛 国内某战略咨询机构酒水营销策略顾问 周期永不眠，而理解它、顺应它，或许正是白酒行业在这个时代转换关口，所能获得的最高维度的"战略红利"。 当我们看清周期更迭的轨迹，便会明白：所有的蛰伏与等待，都是为了在恰当的时机，为值得的人举杯。 《快消品渠道竞争》一书作者 什么是"康波周期" 世界经济的50年潮汐 一个俄罗斯经济学家的远见 在谈论技术革命、经济浪潮甚至人生财富时，很少有人会想到一位名叫尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫（Nikolai Kondratiev）的俄罗斯经济学家。 然而，正是他在将近一百年前，透过动荡时代的迷雾，洞察到了世界经济运行中一个惊人而深远的规律——长周期波动。 20世纪20年代，康德拉季耶夫系统分析了西方资本主义国家长达百多年的经济数据，包括价格、利率、生产和消费等系列指标。 寒冬已至，酒业亦难独善其身。库存压力、价格波动、消费疲软……这些话题已被反复咀嚼，市场的情绪也在一遍遍的重复中渐趋麻木。但或许，我们焦 虑的根源并非行业本身，而是我们仍在用旧尺子：库存、房价、短期动销丈量一个正在剧变的未来。 是时候换一把刻度更大的尺子了。这把尺子，叫做康德拉季耶夫周期，即康波周期。 它告诉我们，经 ...

下一步，谁会先突破4000？ 嗯？你说谁？ A股，又或者，黄金。 在经历了此前接近五个月的震荡波折之后，黄金价格在九月底再次迎来历史新高。距离突破 4000 的整数关口，和A股一样，看起来似乎只是想不想，而 不是能不能的问题了。 这个曾经在 2022 年初还被调侃为不会生息的老古董资产，如今却又俨然成为全球资本市场的硬通货宝藏。A股靠三根阳线就能改变大众的情绪，更别说 黄金已经连续上涨三年多，足以彻底颠覆群众的认知。 在亢奋的情绪之下，更值得我们普通投资者做的，依然是尝试再次复盘，过去三年，世界和黄金究竟发生了什么？ 我们不是一睁眼就从 2022 年穿越到了现在，而是亲自一步一步走到了此刻。 一、2022 年：埋下所有的伏笔 2022 年初，黄金价格，1820 美元。在当年 3 月，黄金最高突破 2000 美元。 而在 10 月，黄金最低接近跌破 1600 美元。仅仅从价格变化来看，黄金似乎无事发生，但回到当时，却可能是这个世界，巨大裂缝终于被撕开的肇始。 2022 年 2 月，俄乌冲突爆发。美国尝试冻结俄罗斯外汇储备，至此埋下了全球央行和投资者对于美元信用产生怀疑的关键伏笔。这个事件，对于主要国 家来说，无 ...

贵金属专题 20251008 摘要 铜价上涨受新能源和 AI 需求驱动，摆脱了对中国地产和基建的传统依赖， 供应端因矿山建设周期长和突发事件频发而面临紧张局面。 预计未来几年铜价将维持紧平衡状态，资源民族主义和战略储备可能加 剧供应紧张，多数有色金属品种价格上涨，预示长期高位运行。 全球制造业轮动和科技能源革命显著提升有色金属需求，铜、铝等金属 受益于 AI、电动车和电网建设，市场呈现强劲增长态势。 黄金价格受多种因素影响，包括美联储政策、政府行为和负利率环境， 目前兼具抗通胀和债券属性，需综合分析多重因素。 康波萧条期地缘风险频发，大国对抗加剧，黄金作为避险资产受益，但 当前科技领域泡沫化和高债务背景使传统框架难以解释黄金走势。 央行持续增持黄金为金价提供坚实支撑，即使金价达到 4,000 美元/盎司 仍值得持有，中国从英国进口黄金数据远超官方披露，暗示增持力度。 预计 2025 年黄金均价维持高位，港股相关个股估值较低，黄金企业利 润增速可观，合理估值可达 25-30 倍，推荐灵宝、潼关等港股和盛达资 源等白银标的。 Q&A 有色金属市场近期表现强劲的主要驱动力是什么？ 有色金属市场近期表现强劲的主要驱动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The financial attributes of metals continue to drive prices, with the CITIC Steel Index rising by 3.18% [1][86]. - The manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement, with the PMI for September at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side policies and the potential for a recovery in the steel industry, particularly in the context of energy investments and infrastructure upgrades [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.6 million tons to 241.8 million tons, while the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils has slightly increased [11][16]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 90.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week but up 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [16][23]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory declining more than factory inventory [23][25]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 10.589 million tons, down 2.8% week-on-week and up 16.1% year-on-year [25][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products improved by 3.5% week-on-week, with rebar demand showing significant recovery [37][47]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 103,000 tons, down 1.4% from the previous week [38][47]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices remained stable, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.9 per ton, unchanged from the previous week [54][66]. - The report notes an increase in Australian iron ore shipments by 8.1% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 13.7% [54][66]. Price and Profit Analysis - The Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in steel prices [66][67]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,422 yuan per ton, with a loss of 188 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil costs 3,648 yuan per ton, with a loss of 299 yuan per ton [67][68].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying wealth opportunities for ordinary individuals in the current economic climate, focusing on both entrepreneurial ventures and investment strategies [2][32]. Group 1: Online Workshops - The online workshops are designed to explore two main paths for personal wealth growth: earning through work and earning through investments [5][6]. - The first workshop, led by investor Wang Cen, discusses low-cost business opportunities suitable for ordinary people, particularly in a slowing economy [6][12]. - Key insights include the CHEES model for market scanning, which focuses on five consumer needs: affordability, health, emotional connection, entertainment, and lifestyle [7][11]. - Three high-potential business sectors are highlighted: - The "无人经济" (无人自助娱乐,无人情趣用品, and 无人自助健身房) which leverages technology for cost efficiency and convenience [9]. - The second-hand market, particularly in restaurant equipment and luxury goods, which addresses information asymmetry in high-value asset transactions [9]. - The light model for small shops, emphasizing "single product hits" and operational efficiency with investment thresholds between 150,000 to 500,000 yuan [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The second workshop, led by economist Zhu Zhenxin, focuses on core investment logic and market valuation principles for the A-share market [12][17]. - Five core principles for understanding market valuation are presented: - Profitability is prioritized over asset value, with a focus on cash flow generation [13]. - Long-term stability is favored over short-term performance [14]. - Growth potential is more valuable than current performance [15]. - Macro factors should be considered over micro factors in investment decisions [16]. - Focus on leading companies with competitive advantages in a differentiated market [17]. Group 3: Offline Practical Course - An offline course held on September 20 in Hangzhou aimed to bridge theory and practice, featuring real-world case studies from successful entrepreneurs [19][21]. - Key highlights include: - Wang Cen's analysis of three high-potential sectors using the CHEES model, including the "银发经济" (silver economy) and its opportunities in senior care and health products [22]. - The "宠物经济" (pet economy) focusing on high-margin services like pet funerals, showcasing a successful case with annual revenue of 230 million yuan [22]. - The community dining model exemplified by "元气考拉," which operates as a second kitchen with a focus on efficiency and low investment [25]. Group 4: Membership Value - The membership program offers a comprehensive growth support system, combining online learning, offline engagement, and community networking [27][32]. - Members have access to over 180 courses, including ongoing updates on business insights and investment trends [28][31]. - The program aims to provide a systematic understanding of wealth generation and practical methodologies for implementation [33].

汇丰晋信基金郑小兵： 筑牢"安全防线" 底部布局静待宏观共振 四维框架筑牢安全防线 为提供更好的投资体验，投资的"安全边际"被不少基金经理放在了更重要的位置。郑小兵也以"安全"为 投资核心，观察宏观、行业、个股、买卖点四大维度，并最终指向"适配长期资金，追求回撤可控的长 期弹性"，力求规避高估值风险。 他认为，宏观研判是投资决策的基石。他会结合康波周期等理论，判断国内外经济情况，比如当前处于 国内经济企稳回升、海外经济风险加剧的阶段，这直接决定了他的布局偏"左侧"与"风险控制"，而非追 逐短期热门赛道，为长期资金的安全配置打下基础。 在行业选择上，他会通过"行业比较"筛选标的，聚焦估值底部、与国内经济相关性强、有长期潜力的行 业，明确表示不会参与拥有"梦想估值"的板块，避免因短期概念炒作导致长期资金承受风险。 ◎记者 朱妍 在结构性行情下，投资如何做到"稳健长盈"？对此，汇丰晋信基金经理郑小兵在接受上海证券报记者专 访时表示，应秉持"先防亏，再盈利"的理念，在有"安全边际"的前提下投资。展望后市，期待国内外宏 观共振拐点出现，因为其中蕴含全面上涨机遇。 在买卖点把控上，他则关注"情绪周期"。"我会通过分析市场 ...

点击上图▲立即报名 你的企业现在处于哪个发展阶段？该激进扩张还是收缩聚焦？是存量升级还是增量开拓？答案全在周期里。 9 月 19 日— 21 日，" 2025 ·吴晓波激荡讲堂"秋季课之《周期与中国企业战 略范式》在辽宁大连精彩开讲。 伴随着潮 汐的起伏，吴老师以诸多新鲜企业经营案例为引，推演中国企业发展战略范式，通过对三大周期的逐一拆解，探讨行之 有效的应对法门。 我们特别邀请到张伟俊老师，他是中国大陆首位把提升企业一把手领导力作为全职工作的"总裁教练"。 他以沉浸式案例 演练的方式，带领同学们解析经济底层逻辑和规律，共同探寻企业的发展之路。 这次课程 是 激荡讲堂开办 三年 以 来 听讲同学 人数最多的一 次。除了有连续三年打卡的 "资深同学"，邀请亲友、伴 侣共同进步的"团体型同学"，我们还迎来了多位热情向学的 95 后，更有同学专程从澳大利亚飞到大连上课。 跨越年龄、跨越地域，同学们在这次美好的相遇中邂逅同频、同价值的同行人，激发出诸多感悟： "我跟着吴老师去了很多地方，他是能让我牢牢坐在位置上耐心听课的老师。这次来到大连，我又收获良多，两个字总 结：真香！" "这次我是从澳洲专程回国来参加激荡讲堂， ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments have released a work plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years [1] - The plan focuses on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," proposing measures such as precise control of capacity and output, graded management of steel enterprises, and a ban on new capacity [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the demand side is a decisive factor for commodity prices during the recovery and prosperity phases of the K-wave cycle, while in the downturn phase, the main driver shifts to supply [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities projects that the industry capacity will remain at 1.24 billion tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 8 million tons, and an expected capacity utilization rate of 85.0%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The concentration of state-owned steel manufacturers has rapidly increased in recent years, and the effectiveness of supply constraints from policies has improved [1] - If the industry output needs to comply with policy constraints next year, the enhanced execution efficiency of state-owned enterprises could significantly boost industry profitability, representing a potential benefit for the sector [1] Group 3 - As most production capacities reach the end of their depreciation period, profits are expected to further optimize [3] - After a decline in capital expenditures, the cash flow performance of long-cycle enterprises is expected to outperform profit performance, indicating that the value of the steel industry is beginning to emerge [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has shown good performance since Q3 2025, with notable sector differentiation [3][4] - Key sectors performing well include technology, pharmaceuticals, new energy, and certain cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, attributed to their strong fundamentals [4][6] - High dividend sectors like finance and banking have underperformed due to declining dividend yields impacting stock momentum, although they remain good absolute return options [5] Group 2: A-Share Outlook - The outlook for A-shares remains positive for Q4 2025 and 2026, as the Chinese economy is gradually recovering from previous pressures [6][8] - Sectors such as AI-driven technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are showing significant market movements, indicating improving fundamentals [6][8] - Cyclical and consumer sectors, while currently lagging, are expected to recover as the economy improves, making them attractive for future investment [7][8] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Drivers - The Hong Kong market has benefited from three main factors: valuation recovery, confidence restoration, and a shift in global monetary policy [11][12] - Valuation recovery is driven by improved earnings from major internet companies, while confidence has been bolstered by technological advancements and successful innovations [12] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to favor emerging markets, including Hong Kong [12][20] Group 4: Sector Focus in Hong Kong - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong will focus on technology, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [14] - The internet sector is expected to see improved profitability and attractiveness due to reduced policy uncertainties and increased foreign investment [14] - Emerging consumer trends in areas like trendy products, new tea drinks, and beauty care are projected to maintain high growth rates, making them appealing investment targets [14] Group 5: Economic and Policy Considerations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates further, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.5% [20] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields may have room to decline, while long-term yields face upward pressure due to uncertainties and fiscal deficits [21] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to show strong growth, driven by local demand and improved fiscal conditions, making them attractive for investment [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a comprehensive product of economic, technological, and social systems, rather than merely focusing on macroeconomic indicators [2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - Following the pandemic, global fiscal stimulus, geopolitical tensions, and a surge in AI capital expenditures have led to a bullish trend in metals and various commodities [3]. - The article questions whether the current commodity bull market can sustain itself and what underlying bullish drivers remain unrecognized by investment banks and media [3]. - The series aims to provide insights and materials for readers to make informed judgments and decisions regarding the commodity market [3]. Group 2: Market Participation and Trading Behavior - The article discusses the role of top traders and their actions in influencing market prices, suggesting that asset price changes are a result of complex interactions within economic and social systems [4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding market rhythms and the process of trading rather than relying solely on predictive models [4][5]. - Historical cycles of economic prosperity and recession (Kondratiev waves) are presented, indicating that the current phase may be entering a recovery period with increased investment demand [6]. Group 3: Strategic Role of Commodities - Recent political developments have led investment banks to believe that commodities will play a more strategic role in investment portfolios, with even a small allocation being considered beneficial [7]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a four-step "control cycle" for commodities, emphasizing the need for supply chain security, market share expansion, concentration of supply, and leveraging geopolitical tools [8][9][10]. - The article suggests that as commodities become a necessary part of investment strategies, their market dynamics will change, potentially leading to increased price volatility and inflation risks [10]. Group 4: Gold as a Safe Haven - The World Gold Council is planning to introduce "digital gold" to innovate the gold trading and settlement process, which could significantly alter the existing gold market ecosystem [15]. - The rising price of gold, particularly since the election of Trump, signals a shift in the global macro environment, indicating a potential bull market for commodities [17]. - The influx of capital into gold futures is expected to have a spillover effect on other commodities, leading to a broad-based bull market [17].