Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the given content - Aluminum: Not clearly defined in the given content - Zinc: Not clearly defined in the given content - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined in the given content - Tin: Not clearly defined in the given content - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/ bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in the given content - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the given content Core Views - The market is assessing the risks of the war situation and reflecting the liquidity constraints under the potential inflation trend. The domestic spot copper buying interest provides some support, and it is expected that the domestic visible inventory will continue to decline [1]. - The high - oil price causes changes in economic outlook and interest rate path expectations, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has complex factors such as high domestic inventory and overseas shortage concerns, and the price is in a state of violent fluctuation [2]. - The zinc market is expected to continue to reduce prices to destock before price stabilization. The annual surplus expectation remains unchanged, and the general direction is to short on rebounds [2]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The upstream price rebound supports the mid - stream price, and it is in a weak and volatile state [4]. - The tin market is centered around the risk of the intensification of the Middle East war situation. Price declines attract spot buyers, and it is expected that the social inventory will decline this week [4]. - The lithium carbonate market has a decline in trading volume. The downstream production is improving, but the overall inventory decline rate slows down, and the futures price is weakening [5]. - The polysilicon market is affected by weak macro - sentiment and fundamentals. After the export tax - rebate policy is cancelled, the export growth is under pressure, and the market is expected to remain weak [5]. - The industrial silicon market is in a weak and volatile pattern, with supply - side开工率 changes and high inventory in the demand side [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Friday, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing yang - line oscillation, and the price fell back below 95,000 at the end of the session. The market is evaluating the war - situation risks and reflecting the liquidity constraints under potential inflation. The domestic spot copper buying interest provides support, and it is expected that the domestic visible inventory will continue to decline [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price opened low and fluctuated sharply. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventory reached a new high in recent years. There are shortage concerns overseas, and enterprises are trying to carry out aluminum product logistics through ports in Oman and Saudi Arabia. The high - oil price puts pressure on non - ferrous metals. The Shanghai aluminum price found support at the February low of 23,000 yuan, and the violent fluctuation is hard to end. The casting aluminum alloy price follows the aluminum price, and the price difference between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan under geopolitical risks. The domestic alumina operating capacity has stabilized at around 94 million tons, and the oversupply situation has improved [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, the import window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The Shanghai aluminum price rebounds, and the SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The low - cost advantage of primary aluminum suppresses the price. With the inclusion of recycled aluminum in delivery, the Shanghai aluminum price is moving towards a dual - pricing system for primary and recycled aluminum, and the price center is under pressure. The price fluctuation may increase, and attention should be paid to the options expiration opportunities [4]. Zinc - The SMM 0 zinc is quoted at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The zinc price breaks through the support level and is expected to continue to reduce prices to destock before stabilizing. The zinc concentrate inventory of smelters has increased, and the domestic ore TC has rebounded first. Due to concerns about the tightening of macro - liquidity, the lower support for Shanghai zinc is the smelter cost. The annual surplus expectation remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to short on rebounds [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price is weak, and the market trading is active. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar puts pressure on the market. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% increases by 3 yuan per nickel point, reaching 1,095 yuan per nickel point. The upstream price rebound supports the mid - stream price. The short - term is dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreases by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend is weak and volatile [4]. Tin - The Shanghai tin price has a position - reducing intraday oscillation, and the price trades between 310,000 and 350,000 yuan on the weekly average line. The market sentiment is centered around the risk of the intensification of the Middle East war situation. Price declines attract spot buyers, and it is expected that the social inventory will decline this week. In the medium - term, the strength of demand and supply needs to be measured [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates and declines, and the market trading volume decreases. The macro - environment is trading on the decline of interest - rate cut expectations and risk appetite. The downstream production is improving, and iron - lithium enterprises are still actively producing. The total market inventory decreases by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, and the overall inventory decline rate slows down. The inventory structure change is worthy of attention, as the inventory decline of smelters slows down and traders' confidence in hoarding weakens and they start to sell to downstream. In terms of production, the lithium carbonate production in early March has returned to a high level, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium carbonate futures price is weakening [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price continues to be weak after breaking through the key support level, mainly dragged down by weak macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The export tax - rebate policy is cancelled from April 1st, and the export growth is under pressure, and the demand expectation for polysilicon raw materials is weakening. According to SMM, the weekly polysilicon inventory decreases slightly to 347,000 tons, but the inventory inflection point is not clear. The downstream enterprise operating rate remains low, the market is pessimistic about the future, and there is no obvious intention to stock up. The average price of N - type dense material is 42,000 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with yesterday, and the futures price is expected to remain weak [5]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price rebounds slightly, and the spot silicon price remains stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is flat, the operating rate in Yunnan continues to decline, and the operating rates in other north - western production areas also decline slightly. On the demand side, the inventory of polysilicon factories is at a historical high, the spot price drops significantly, the weekly production is flat, and the demand for industrial silicon procurement is weak. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory is reported at 553,000 tons, increasing by 1,000 tons week - on - week, and the factory inventory in Xinjiang also accumulates slightly. Overall, the market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [6].