Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant geopolitical shift in the agricultural market, particularly regarding China's large-scale soybean purchases from Argentina, which has caught the U.S. off guard [1][3][20] - Argentina's government announced the cancellation of soybean export tariffs on September 22, leading to a decrease in export costs and making it more attractive for buyers like China [3][5] - This shift allows Argentina to capture market share that was previously dominated by the U.S., indicating a change in the dynamics of international agricultural trade [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. has historically been a major supplier in the global soybean market, relying on a stable trade relationship with China, which is now under threat due to political factors [3][9] - Following the tariff cancellation, U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing pressure from inventory buildup, price drops, and reduced export orders, prompting the government to seek alternative buyers globally [9][11] - The U.S. government is attempting to mitigate the situation through financial subsidies for farmers, but this is only a temporary solution and does not address the underlying issues [11][18] Group 3 - India has emerged as a potential market for U.S. soybeans, but its unique agricultural landscape and strong domestic production create challenges for large-scale imports [14][16] - The Indian government is cautious about importing U.S. soybeans due to potential negative impacts on local farmers and the economy, as well as previous experiences with agricultural market reforms that faced significant backlash [16][18] - The article emphasizes that political interventions in trade can lead to unintended consequences, as seen in the current soybean market dynamics, where the U.S. attempts to pressure China have backfired [20][26][28]

美印能源博弈：一场教科书式的反制艺术 2025年盛夏，华盛顿突然对印度举起关税大棒，要求其立即停止进口俄罗斯原油。然而莫迪政府并未如预期般退让，反而抛出一个令人拍案叫绝的能源置换 方案——印度可以配合美国要求，前提是解除对伊朗和委内瑞拉的石油禁运。这场看似寻常的贸易摩擦，瞬间演变成国际战略博弈的精彩案例。 印度外长苏杰生的表态堪称经典：我们与各国的友谊不需要第三方批准。这番表态背后，是印度坚持七十年的战略自主外交哲学。当美国要求印度选边站 时，新德里巧妙地将选择题抛回华盛顿：要么开放伊朗和委内瑞拉市场，要么继续默许印度购买俄油。这种以子之矛攻子之盾的策略，直指美国制裁体系的 逻辑漏洞。 印度的反击恰好揭露了西方的矛盾之处：2024年美欧与俄罗斯的双边贸易额仍高达600亿欧元，美国企业仍在进口俄罗斯的核燃料与稀有金属。更讽刺的 是，印度大量采购俄油最初正是应美国所请——为缓解西方制裁造成的全球能源危机。这种昨是今非的态度，让美国的道德说教显得苍白无力。 【能源命脉的攻防战】 作为全球第三大原油进口国，印度83%的石油需求依赖海外供应。俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯提供的每桶低于市场价30%的友情价原油，成为印度经济的稳 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earth materials, with a dependency rate of 98% for its renewable energy industry, which includes critical components for electric vehicles and wind turbines [3][5] - In August 2023, China exported 2,582 tons of rare earth magnets to Europe, marking a 21% month-on-month increase, highlighting the growing importance of these materials in the global supply chain [3][5] - The EU has invested €12 billion to create a "European Rare Earth Alliance" aiming to reduce its external dependency to 65% by 2030, but faces significant challenges due to high production costs and lack of refining technology [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's recent sanctions against 12 Chinese companies, accused of aiding Russia in evading oil sanctions, could disrupt trade worth over €8 billion annually, threatening jobs in the European automotive and renewable energy sectors [5][7] - If rare earth supplies from China are interrupted, the EU could face a shortage lasting 18-24 months, with costs potentially rising by 25%-40% [5][7] - The political maneuvering by the EU, while simultaneously relying on Chinese rare earths, creates a paradox that could lead to a trust crisis in the global supply chain [7][9] Group 3 - China has previously responded to geopolitical tensions by restricting rare earth exports, as seen with Lithuania, which experienced a 40% drop in imports and a 15% increase in domestic costs [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions could lead to a re-evaluation of the relationship between the EU and China, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, 5G, and AI, where both parties have mutual interests [7][9] - The current situation reflects deeper contradictions in global supply chain dynamics, where political calculations may undermine long-term market stability and cooperation [9]

原油 女女女 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | T | | | 了 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 777 | 李海群 | | T | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 大 | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】隔夜国际油价大幅反弹,SC11合约日内涨1.72%。继6月伊以冲突之后，十一前后或再次迎来地缘博弈 的关键窗口期,具体在俄乌、伊核两条主线均有反应。而在无直接军事冲突的前提下,伊核制裁恢复、委内出 口受限对两国的实际出口总量难有持续性影响,更多体现在短期犹动及出口流向的变化;而东欧紧张局势若进 一步发酵,俄罗斯原油及成品油出口或因能源基础设施的受损而进一步减量,油价短期上行风险仍存,原油系 期货保值空单应与看涨期权结合操作。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】燃料油市场延续上涨，一方面受地缘因素推动原油走强，成本端带动整体原油系品种 情。另一方面就自身供需而言,她缘局势出现升级迹象,乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设 ...

摘要周三，美元指数日内持续上涨，并一度逼近98美元关口，但未能上破此处，最终收涨0.66%，报 97.86。因美元走强，现货黄金从历史高位回落，盘中一度跌至3717.52美元的低点，较日高大跌60美 元，但随后收复部分失地，最终收跌0.75%，收报3735.89美元/盎司；现货白银收跌0.3%，报43.89美元/ 盎司。 【行情回顾】 周三，美元指数日内持续上涨，并一度逼近98美元关口，但未能上破此处，最终收涨0.66%，报97.86。 因美元走强，现货黄金从历史高位回落，盘中一度跌至3717.52美元的低点，较日高大跌60美元，但随 后收复部分失地，最终收跌0.75%，收报3735.89美元/盎司；现货白银收跌0.3%，报43.89美元/盎司。 周三晚间，美元指数反弹。美国财长贝森特表态支持大幅降息，认为美联储利率过高过久，应释放100 至150个基点的降息信号，强化了市场对宽松周期的预期；而美联储内部意见出现分化，古尔斯比警告 勿过度降息，戴利则认为经济增长放缓与低通胀支持进一步宽松，政策不确定性仍存。 美国与欧盟达成汽车关税协议，但对医疗器械等发起232调查，贸易摩擦风险延续；克里姆林宫批评特 朗普试图 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].

| Mile | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月24日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据教据和经济前景灵活调 整。地缘博弈局面难解,美国总统特朗普称如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议,已准备好加征关税。后续关注美国政 府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎,贵金属偏强趋势未改但短期波动可能加剧。 ★美联储主席鲍威尔:政策利率仍然略带限制性,但使美联储能够更好地应对潜在的经济进展;预计关税将 是一次性传导效应；决策"绝不会基于政治因素"。"美联储传声简"指出，鲍威尔比番言论表明其认为利 率仍偏紧缩，或为进一步降息打开空间。美联储古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息50个基点。最终美联储利率可 能会稳定 ...

美国的处境因此变得相当尴尬。若对印度施压过甚，可能将其彻底推向俄罗斯阵营；若让步太多，又会 在盟友面前显得软弱。印度正是看准美国这种两难心理，才设计出这套软硬兼施的组合拳。 这场博弈背后是印度精明的利益计算。美国近期频频向印度示好，从先进武器销售到贸易优惠承诺，希 望将其纳入印太战略的棋局。但印度显然不甘心做任人摆布的棋子，而是通过这手双线操作向美国传递 明确信息：想要我的战略配合，就得拿出真金白银的实惠。 在能源安全方面，印度22%的石油进口来 自俄罗斯，这些原油价格比国际市场低30%，是平抑国内通胀的重要保障。军备合作上，俄制武器仍是 印军现代化的重要支撑。这些实实在在的利益，让印度必须谨慎维持与俄罗斯的关系。 印度近期在外交和贸易领域的连环动作，正在国际舞台上掀起一场精妙的地缘博弈。这个南亚大国一边 以象征性兵力参与俄罗斯军演，一边对美国挥舞关税大棒，将大国博弈的戏剧性推向高潮。 在军事层 面，印度仅派出65名士兵参加俄白西方-2025联合军演，这个数字可谓耐人寻味。俄罗斯此次军演剑指 北约东扩，而印度这支不足百人的迷你参演队伍，既不会过度刺激美国，又明确传递出我有其他选择的 战略信号。就像在下一盘精妙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the average price of Brent and SC is expected to decline. It is advisable to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [2]. - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and black series, as well as energy and chemical products and agricultural products, different trends and investment suggestions are presented according to their respective supply - demand situations, policies, and geopolitical factors [4][5][6] and so on. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The overnight international oil price rebounded. The mid - term bearish trend persists, with the estimated average price of Brent dropping from $68/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel, and SC from 500 yuan/barrel to around 465 yuan/barrel. Hold the combined strategy of high - level short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU mainly follow the crude oil trend. Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Crude oil leads the decline in oil futures, and LPG slightly follows. Supply - demand shows marginal improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [22]. - **Asphalt**: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The overall inventory decreased. The futures price oscillates with support below [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. The upward trend remains, but short - term fluctuations may increase [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated. Domestic spot copper prices were reported, and it is advisable to wait and see due to concerns about consumption indicators and inventory [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Downstream start - up increased seasonally, but inventory has not yet shown a turning point. Observe whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity reached a record high, and the inventory continued to rise. The price is expected to run weakly, with support at around 2800 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: The export expectation strengthened, and the import loss narrowed. Consumption was weak in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased. The lower support is at 21,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The profit of recycled lead repaired, and the supply - demand was weak. The price is expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly and is about to start a downward trend. Stainless steel has cost support due to pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, London tin rose at the key support level. The price is difficult to show a trend in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply decreased from the high level, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was partially implemented. The price is relatively firm, and it is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated. With pre - holiday stocking sentiment and sufficient carbon supply, the price is relatively firm, and the futures price shows a premium. It is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. With increasing demand and production, it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The demand was okay, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [18]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillated weakly at night. The demand for rebar improved slightly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Chemical Products - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price oscillated. The policy - driven capacity clearance is in progress. The short - term price may correct, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity of low - level repair after the correction [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [13]. - **Urea**: The main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The supply exceeded demand, and the price may continue to run at a low level in the short term [23]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price stabilized and rebounded. The port demand strengthened, but high inventory and accumulation expectations restricted the upward space. Pay attention to overseas gas - limiting situations [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price stopped falling and rebounded. The actual fundamentals were okay, but the import expectation and poor downstream profits dragged down the market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase. The supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the price trend is weak [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly due to high supply and inventory pressure. Caustic soda futures price dropped sharply, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakened, and the PTA processing margin and basis improved slightly. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory relief [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to fall. The actual supply pressure was not large, but the expectation was weak. Pay attention to inventory and new - device variables [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted, and the processing margin continued to repair. The bottle - grade chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [31]. - **Glass**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price fell from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see before the festival and look for low - long opportunities near the cost [32]. - **20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The demand was stable. The supply of natural rubber increased while the inventory decreased, and that of synthetic rubber decreased with inventory decline. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The price fell. Look for high - short opportunities and be cautious near the cost [34]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The short - term market is bearish due to Argentina's export policy. Wait and see in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The supply of domestic soybeans in Q1 2026 is expected to be sufficient. Domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The US soybean market may be under pressure [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil is expected to be stronger than other oils. Rapeseed meal demand is expected to be average [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean price reached a new low. The supply is expected to be good. The price of US soybeans may face downward pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated weakly at night. The new - season output is expected to be good, but the price may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [39]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs reached a new low. The supply pressure is large, and the price is bearish [40]. - **Egg**: The near - term contract should focus on short - position exit, and the far - term contract in H1 2026 can be considered for long - position layout [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded and oscillated. The domestic new - cotton acquisition is about to start. The Xinjiang cotton output is likely to be high. Wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillated. The domestic market focuses on the next - season output estimate, and the Guangxi output expectation is relatively good [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillated. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Wait and see for now [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price oscillated at a low level. The inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Wait and see or trade in the range [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and moderately allocate to cyclical sectors. Also, seize the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds fell across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

| Mi | > 國授期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。上周美联储风险管理式降息，鲍威尔表态谨慎显示通胀压力仍存,地缘博弈局面难 解。此外需关注美国政府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎。黄金ETF需求快速增长，贵金属中期偏强趋势 未改但短期保持谨慎。今晚关注美国9月SPGI制造业PMI初值和鲍威尔针对经济前景的讲话。 ★美联储博斯蒂克：当前没有太多理由进一步降息，预期今年只降息一次；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息的空间有 限。如果通胀风险增加，将不会支持进一步降息；哈玛克：在解除政策限制时应非常谨慎，我对中性利率的 估计属于较高的那一批；米兰：认为适当的利率处于2%的中间区域。目前不支持对2%的通胀目标进行调 ...