基本面上，国内外多重利空消息及数据打击。 国内方面，上周披露的一系列10月经济数据继续 指向经济弱势，货币供应方面增速全面回落、经济生产方面的生产、消费、地产销售也是全面回落， 结合事件方面的荷兰安世事件的持续僵持搁置等， 整体凸显了最近几个月中国实体经济的基本状态 ——全社会需求还在下行只有物价涨了，再对比全球商品价格过去3个月的整体下行趋势，显然本次 国内物价反弹有较多"反内卷"成分，我们也早在2个月前就开始提示这一轮中国物价的独立行情，但 对其持续性目前仍抱谨慎态度不变，对应板块的中期投资逻辑需慎重对待 ；海外方面，美国政府经 历史上最长关门后于上周四在美国总统签署相关临时草案文件后正式结束，但同日美联储再度传达12 月降息概率下降，导致美股短期利多变利空，美国AI主题叙事也开始面临各方多空争论，我们建议淡 化美联储降息节奏的事件影响，毕竟22-23年的持续高利率下美股也没有少涨一点， 目前美国短期最 大风险依旧是银行资金面紧张与美债发行可持续性的问题 ，这对包括国际金价在内的全部美元资产 都将形成长期利空，建议维持美股回避不变。 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

Group 1: Market Overview - In March, the bond market faced significant challenges, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.70% and closing at 1.80%, peaking at 1.90% during the month[1] - The bond market experienced a "dramatic adjustment" followed by a "gradual recovery" after March 17, when the central bank's attitude softened, leading to a recovery in long-term interest rates[1] - The seasonal easing of liquidity in April is expected to be a key driver for the bond market, with historical data showing a decrease in funding rates in April compared to March[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The central bank has a history of implementing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in April, with reductions of 0.25 percentage points in April 2022 and March 2023, and a potential cut of 0.50 percentage points in February 2024[2] - April typically sees a significant tax payment period, with monthly tax payments exceeding CNY 1.5 trillion, which could create liquidity fluctuations[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in April is historically low, averaging CNY 639 billion for national bonds and CNY 2.13 trillion for local bonds, indicating minimal disruption to liquidity[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on April 2 may increase global market risk aversion, potentially pushing bond yields down and impacting equity markets[3] - High-frequency data suggests that March exports did not show significant improvement, with container shipping rates declining by 11.1% compared to February, indicating weakening export demand[3] - If export data shows a significant slowdown, it may trigger policy responses, including potential RRR cuts and accelerated government bond issuance[3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Non-bank institutions are expected to regain pricing power in the bond market as the market stabilizes in Q2, with funds likely to increase their bond allocations[4] - The insurance sector is anticipated to enhance its bond allocation in April, particularly favoring long-term local bonds, which may see a return to average spreads with government bonds[4] - The strategy for April should focus on higher spread protection durations to mitigate market volatility during uncertain periods[4]