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花旗预警:关税冲击Q1北美互联网 绩前下调预期及目标价
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 10:59
Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has adjusted earnings expectations and target prices for most companies in the North American internet sector due to anticipated tariff impacts and a weakening macro environment [1] Online Advertising - Citigroup has lowered online advertising revenue forecasts due to macroeconomic uncertainties and expected spending cuts by advertisers, particularly in the second half of the year [2] - The Trade Desk is expected to be most directly affected by tariffs, with revenue projections for FY2025 reduced from $2.879 billion to $2.755 billion and target price cut from $70 to $63 [2] - Criteo's revenue forecast for FY2025 has been adjusted from $1.168 billion to $1.147 billion, with target price decreased from $60 to $47 [2] - IAC's target price has been lowered from $47.55 to $45, ZiffDavis from $52 to $35, and Outbrain from $5.9 to $4 [3] E-commerce - Consumer confidence is near historical lows, prompting a reduction in forecasts for discretionary e-commerce companies due to potential tariff impacts [4] - eBay is considered to have the strongest defense against tariffs, with FY2025 GMV expectations adjusted from $75.923 billion to $75.436 billion and target price from $80 to $79 [4] - Etsy's FY2025 GMS forecast has been lowered from $12.115 billion to $11.749 billion, with target price cut from $53 to $48 [4] - Wayfair's FY2025 revenue expectation has been reduced from $11.830 billion to $11.464 billion, with target price slightly increased from $28 to $30 [4] Website Builders - Website builders like GoDaddy and Wix.com are seen as having strong fundamentals despite potential pressures on small businesses from tariffs and economic slowdown [5] - GoDaddy's FY2025 revenue forecast has been adjusted from $4.934 billion to $4.888 billion, with target price cut from $260 to $234 [6] - Wix.com's FY2025 revenue expectation has been lowered from $1.989 billion to $1.963 billion, with target price reduced from $280 to $238 [6]