宏观面强预期与弱现实
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建信期货铜期货日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:15
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Price Movement: Copper prices rose and then fell. Spot prices dropped by 40 to 79,435, while the spot premium increased by 10 to 210. The spot Shanghai-London ratio rose to 8.1, and imports turned profitable by 45. The 0 - 3C structure narrowed slightly to 79.2. [11] - Market Analysis: China's July financial data was weak, with both household and corporate deposits and loans declining. The economic outlook remains sluggish, leading to strong selling sentiment in industrial products. The spot market is strong domestically and weak overseas. The macro - environment has a coexistence of strong expectations and weak reality. [11] - Operation Suggestion: It is expected that the spot premium will remain high. The overall judgment is that the downside space for copper prices is limited. Pay attention to the support around 78,500 for the main Shanghai copper contract. [11] Group 3: Industry News - Demand in North China: Due to the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin at the end of August, local copper processing enterprises are stocking up in anticipation of production control, leading to good demand for electrolytic copper in the North China market, but actual terminal consumption is average. [12] - Investment in Copper by Australian Gold Miner: Australia's second - largest gold miner plans to increase its investment in copper. The company's copper business revenue could account for up to 40%, currently about 25%. [12] - Copper Smelting in Chile: Codelco will start copper smelting work at the El Teniente mine on August 14. An accident in late July caused the mine to shut down for several days, resulting in a loss of 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper, equivalent to $300 million. [12]