| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：近期金价震荡偏强运行，降息预期升温，美元指数走弱，给予金价上行动能， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: In a range - bound adjustment [2]. - Copper: High expectations for long - term contract premiums support prices [2]. - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range [2]. - Alumina: Rebounding from a low level [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed, with short - term macro and news - based disturbances [2]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, Comex gold 2512 had a 0.74% daily increase, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5 to 1045.43. For silver, Comex silver 2512 rose 3.88%, and SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15582.33. The inventories of both decreased [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC+ will maintain the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, and Putin will discuss the peace plan with the US [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.46%, and LME copper 3M electronic trading decreased 0.21%. The global refined copper market had a 5.1 - million - ton deficit in September, and the market is expected to face a 15 - million - ton shortage in 2026 [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year, and the cost - determination meeting for price competition was held [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.27%, and LME zinc 3M electronic trading increased 1.85%. The inventory situation was mixed [11]. - **News**: The ECB official warned that it's too early to discuss interest rate cuts, and the cryptocurrency winter may threaten the financial market [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai lead main contract decreased 0.64%, and LME lead 3M electronic trading decreased 0.40%. The inventories of both decreased [15]. - **News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year, and relevant regulatory meetings were held [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.20%, and LME tin 3M electronic trading increased 1.05%. Spot prices increased [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US consumer spending decreased, and China promoted the development of new business forms [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 45, alumina rebounded from a low level, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. Various indicators such as inventory and price differentials changed [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The price - competition cost - determination meeting was held, and China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai nickel main contract decreased 360, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased 45. The pace of nickel inventory accumulation slowed [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were issues with Indonesian nickel mines, and Fed officials made dovish remarks [24][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

20251128申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱： ...

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 28 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 沪铜小幅上涨，主力收盘报 86990，隔夜外盘继续交易美联储 12 月降息预期带动 铜价上涨，日内现货涨 430 至 87085，现货升水涨 25 至 105，销售情绪大幅下降 令现货升水走强，本周社库减少 0.7 万吨，较上周四减少 2.1 万吨，国内社库去 库加速。现货进口亏损近千元，主因比价下降以及 LME0-3 转 back 结构， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows into commodity futures, particularly in precious metals and certain industrial metals, indicating a bullish sentiment in these sectors [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in silver (1.461 billion), gold (1.088 billion), tin (0.324 billion), lithium carbonate (0.295 billion), and copper (0.268 billion) [1] - The non-ferrous metals and financial sectors showed a net inflow, with a focus on silver, gold, tin, lithium carbonate, and copper [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in rebar (0.291 billion), apples (0.269 billion), coking coal (0.178 billion), glass (0.166 billion), and vegetable oil (0.158 billion) [1] - The chemical, black, and agricultural products sectors experienced net outflows, particularly in rebar, apples, coking coal, glass, and vegetable oil [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The overall commodity futures market showed a substantial inflow, with a particular emphasis on the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - Attention is drawn to the outflow of alumina, which is contrary to the trend in other non-ferrous metals [1] - The financial sector is highlighted for its focus on the Shanghai 50 stock index futures and 10-year government bond futures [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2]. - Zinc: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend [2]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price is fluctuating [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend, while alumina continues to face pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, and there are short - term disturbances from macro and news factors. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Gold 2512 and Shanghai Gold 2512 were 4196.10 and 943.08 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74% and - 0.03%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 20,269 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 8,514. The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5 to 1,045.43 [4]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall consumer spending in the US has further declined in recent weeks. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000, the lowest since mid - April. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%, exceeding expectations [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Silver 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 were 53.760 and 12,220 respectively, with daily increases of 3.88% and 0.76%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 decreased by 17,011 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 10,273. The position of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15,582.33 [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 86,590, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 87,090, with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index increased by 19,199 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 6,653. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1,140 to 39,825 [8]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has changed little during the government shutdown period. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in October decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year. The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,355, with a daily decrease of 0.02%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 11,308 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 1,139. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 2,199 to 71,620 [11]. - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [13] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,065, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 309 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,433. The inventory of Shanghai Lead remained unchanged at 28,654 [14]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 295,880, with a daily increase of 0.20%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 18,922 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 58. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 22 to 5,884 [17]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, including global economic and industry - related news [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,455, with a daily decrease of 10. The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,720, with a daily decrease of 7. The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,695, with a daily decrease of 10 [21]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows economic conditions during the government shutdown. US - Russia peace talks are in progress [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum Alloy: 1 [23] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,260, with an increase of 1,100 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,455, with an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [24]. - **News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over an area of more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel products [24][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: - 1; Stainless Steel: 0 [28]

一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 9 月整体耐用品订单 | | | 环比初值增长 0.5%，与市场预期持平，但较 8 月的 2.9%明显放缓。美联储褐皮书显示， | | | 美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱、通胀压力犹存，货币政策面临挑 | | | 战。不过，美联储 12 月降息的 概率继续回升。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 75 吨至 | | 铜 | 156500 吨；Comex 库存增加 1620 吨至 378904 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1140 吨至 39825 | | | 吨，BC 铜维系 5802 吨。需求方面，铜价维系高位，下游接受度有所提升，整体需求呈 | | | 现缓慢回暖态势。内外股市回稳以及铜年度长单报价大幅走高推动铜价表现偏强，值得 | | | 注意的是市场看涨铜正趋于一致性，不过库存"堰塞湖"依然会对年内铜价高度形成制 | | | 约。关注铜价在高位的表现，暂时维系高位震荡观点，但一旦向上有效突破，则可能引 | | | 起新一轮的波动率抬升及看涨情绪。 | | | ...

20251127申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能区间波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量延 | | | 锌 | 续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车 产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，总 | 可能区间波 动 | | | 体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱：l ...

北京时间11月27日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格高位震荡，今日开盘报10965美元/吨，现报 10954.5美元/吨，跌幅0.19%，盘中最高触及10979美元/吨，最低下探10934.5美元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 11月26日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 11月26日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为7.97，进口盈亏：-760.69元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1026.92元/ 吨。 11月26日，上期所铜期货仓单39825吨，环比上个交易日减少1140吨。 11月26日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单150450吨。注销仓单6050吨，增加425吨。铜库存 156500吨，减少75吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10846.0 11025.0 10846.0 10953.0 1.11% 【铜市场消息速递】 ...