上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 | | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 17 | | 铅： | | 17 | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.07%报 110.870 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 107.765 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.03 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上 1000 元关口 ...

2026年01月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再探新高 | 3 | | 铜：需求预期增强，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：震荡走强 | 10 | | 铝：重心显著上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：资金风偏推动 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随铝价 | 11 | | 铂：ETF持仓持续流出，区间震荡 | 13 | | 钯：冲高后回落，关注关税相关价格传导 | 13 | | 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：关税调整利好近期需求，偏强震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注下游减产情况 | 19 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡 | 19 | | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩 | 22 | | 硅铁：市场情绪消退，盘面宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/05 -115 7082 111703 90282 -1655.63 -138.56 43.0 46.0 41.98 142550 32650 2026/01/06 -200 7942 111703 93271 -1275.62 53.90 39.0 44.0 2.98 146075 31875 2026/01/07 -320 7742 111703 96474 -1162.96 67.15 39.0 44.0 14.98 143225 29025 2026/01/08 -325 7168 111703 108685 -941.12 186.34 42.0 46.0 16.75 141075 25925 2026/01/09 -325 6063 180543 111216 -1676.26 202.43 42.0 46.0 41.94 138975 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，12月制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间；偏多。 2、基差：现货100570，基差-840，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月9日铜库存减2100至138975吨，上期所铜库存较上周增35201吨至180543吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，高位大幅 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-12 所长 早读 特朗普再次威胁伊朗 观点分享： 新华社华盛顿 1 月 10 日电 美国《纽约时报》10 日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，美国 总统特朗普近日已听取关于军事打击伊朗方案的汇报。报道称，特朗普尚未做出最终决定， 但他正在认真考虑授权美军发动军事打击。美军行动有一系列选项，包括对德黑兰的非军事 地点进行打击。当天早些时候，特朗普在社交媒体上发文，再次威胁干涉伊朗当前局势。之 前，据西班牙《阿贝赛报》网站 1 月 9 日报道，美国总统特朗普 1 月 8 日表示，针对墨西哥 境内贩毒集团的军事行动"很快"将启动。觊觎格陵兰岛，甚至想把面积比美国还大的加拿 大变成一个"州"，从抓捕委内瑞拉马杜罗来看，不仅只是口头威胁，真的不顾国际法，仗 着武力优势不说就干，由此来看，战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序寿终正寝的可能性越来越 大了。而从黄金等贵金属到铜等"大宗"有色金属，再到钨、稀土、铟等"小众"金属，战 略资源的争抢恐怕还会持续。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Re - testing new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Demand expectations are strengthening, leading to price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Operating in a relatively strong manner [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][14]. - Tin: Oscillating and strengthening [2][16]. - Aluminum: The price center has significantly moved up; Alumina is driven by capital risk preference; Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price [2][20]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, with range - bound oscillations [2][22]. - Palladium: After surging, it declined. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][22]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillations [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][27]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,006.48 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 1008.54 with a 0.80% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18757 with a 1.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 19438.00 with a 6.19% increase [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,653 kg (unchanged), and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3 to 1,064.56. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 17385 kg to 620,262 kg, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 93 to 16,308.48 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have listened to military strike plans [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,410 with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 102220 with a 0.80% increase. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading price increased by 2.07% to 12,966 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2,531 tons to 111,216 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 133 to - 977 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected output of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23970 with a - 0.02% change, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.57% to 3149 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 599 tons to 38874 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 107450 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread increased by 7.5 to - 36.5 [11]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and Canada was worried about US economic actions [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17395 with a 0.35% increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.49% to 2046.5 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Lead inventory increased by 2321 tons to 16188 tons, and the London Lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons to 222725 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 2.55 to - 44.05 [14]. - **News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high, and December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 352,540 with a 0.83% increase, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a 3.15% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 4.64% to 45,700 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 359 tons to 6,429 tons. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 5,300 to 349,750 [17]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and the UK considered deploying troops in Greenland [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24330, and the night - session closing price was 24465. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2843, and the night - session closing price was 2835 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons to 49.78 million tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 71.80 million tons [20]. - **News**: There was a debate about AI, and countries were hoarding strategic materials [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Platinum 2606 futures was 599.80 with a 4.31% increase, and the Palladium 2606 futures price increased by 8.32% to 499.05 [22]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 260 ounces to 624,755 ounces. The Platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,775 ounces to 3,284,543 ounces [22]. - **News**: There were various geopolitical events such as the situation in Thailand, Israel - Gaza, and the UK's consideration of Greenland deployment [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the Chinese government imposed export license management on some steel products [27][28].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/08 | -104.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/07 | -108.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/06 | -113.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/05 | -116.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2026/01/09 2026/01/08 2026/01/07 2026/01/06 2026/0 ...

2025年，全球经济金融棋局愈发复杂：地缘政治硝烟不散，特朗普关税大棒再起，美联储重回降息周 期，供需格局深度重构……多重变量叠加共振，大宗商品市场全年剧烈波动，各品种走势天差地 别，"冰火两重天"的极致分化成为最醒目的年度标签。 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，期货市场的发展脉络与大宗商品结构性机会备受瞩目。新的一年， 期货市场能否交出高分答卷？众多品种中，谁又将脱颖而出成为最亮眼的"TA"？ 黑色及能化板块偏弱 2025年大宗商品"冰""火"泾渭分明：黑色系、能化与部分农产品深陷"冰"区。受访人士直指病根——需 求疲弱、供应过剩、传统产业转型阵痛"三座大山"同步压顶。 "黑色产业链2025年整体价格明显承压。"南华期货商品分析师边舒扬指出，地产、基建需求坍塌，钢铁 消费量萎缩，铁矿石、焦煤等原料需求随之锐减；终端疲软向上游传导，钢厂利润受压，主动减产抑制 原料采购，叠加全球产能过剩，黑色系2025年上半年持续走弱。6月后"反内卷"政策托底，焦煤、焦炭 价格获支撑，全年跌幅得以收窄。 相比黑色产业链，边舒扬认为能源化工板块更显低迷。需求端全年疲软：房地产链拖累PVC、玻璃、纯 碱等多品种需求，库存积压 ...

【中山大洋电机股份有限公司(以下简称"大洋电机"或"公司")1月9日晚间发布公告称，为应对原材料价 格波动风险，公司及子公司计划在2028年度开展铜、铝商品期货套期保值业务，预计任一时点占用保证 金最高额度合计不超过2.08亿元人民币。】 套保规模与品种明确 公告显示，公司2028年度拟通过境内外期货交易所对不超过22,000吨铜期货与21,500吨铝期货进行套期 保值操作。具体资金安排如下： 公司表示，开展商品期货套期保值业务的主要目的是有效规避原材料价格波动对公司经营成本带来的影 响，保障供应链安全及成本可控性，提升抗风险能力，确保稳健经营。该业务不以投机、套利为目的。 套保策略与实施方式 公司此次套保业务将采取境内外联动的操作模式：在境内期货交易所开展套期保值业务的同时，通过境 外子公司在伦敦金属交易所(LME)设立期货账户，以应对国际化战略下境外有色金属价格剧烈波动风 险。 特别值得注意的是，LME期铜、期铝的最长交易周期可覆盖未来24个月，能够更好地满足公司中长期 生产经营需求。公司将以客户订单周期作为期货操作期，根据现货采购原材料需求量进行等值期货套 保。 风险控制与制度保障 铜期货套期保值预计任 ...