2025年第四季度，铁矿石产量总计9040万吨，同比增长510万吨，增幅为6%，这得益于布鲁库图 (Brucutu)矿区的强劲业绩，以及卡帕内玛(Capanema)项目和大瓦尔任1号工厂(VGR1)项目的持续达产。 球团产量总计830万吨，同比减少80万吨，减幅为9%，反映出市场状况。铁矿石销量达到8490万吨，同 比增长370万吨，增幅为5%，与产量增长保持一致。 2025年第四季度，铜产量总计10.81万吨，同比增长0.63万吨，增幅为6%，系2018年以来最高季度 产量，这一增长得益于萨洛博(Salobo)运营区创下历史最高产量，以及索塞古(Sossego)运营区和加拿大 多金属资产保持稳定运营业绩。 2025年第四季度，镍总计4.62万吨，同比增长0.07万吨，增幅为2%，这得益于昂萨布玛(Onça Puma)2号熔炉成功启用，以及沃伊斯湾(Voisey"s Bay)地下矿逐步达产。(完) 标签： (相关资料图) (记者 林春茵)当地时间1月27日，总部位于巴西里约热内卢的矿业巨头淡水河谷发布2025年第四季 度和2025年产销量报告。 报告指出，2025年，淡水河谷所有业务均实现强劲运营业绩，超出年 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-01-28 上游价格持续回升 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）2025年12月开始中国化工品价格筑底回升，当前化工品价格已出现趋势性反转。截至2026年1月26 日，中国化工品价格指数涨至4084，月环比上涨4.2%，12月化学原料及化学制品制造业、化学纤维制造业PPI同比 降幅均有所收窄，显示行业价格压力正持续缓解。 服务行业：1）新修订的《中华人民共和国药品管理法实施条例》27日公布，将于5月15日起施行。国家药监局表 示，这是条例实施二十多年来，首次全面修订。鼓励创新，是这次修订的一个突出特点。支持以临床价值为导向 研究和创制新药，提升仿制药质量和疗效，明确写进新修订条例的总则。2） 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）化工：PTA价格持续上行。2）能源：国际原油、液化天然气价格回升。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率持续高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位延续。3）基建：道路沥青开工低位 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的 ...

铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，美国政府在1月 底前发生新一轮停摆的概率走高，进一步影响市场对美国政经稳定的信心；有消息指出美国被曝向以色 列通报对伊朗行动准备进展，美军队在伊朗周边的布局令市场感到地缘政治或再起波澜；周四凌晨将公 布美联储新一轮利率决策，按兵不动概率较大。库存方面，LME库存增加1825吨至172350吨；Comex库 存增加2921吨至516070吨；SHFE铜仓单下降406吨144908吨，BC铜下降25吨至11141吨。近期地缘政治 搅局下，影响市场对全球经济稳定性的信心，另外高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年， 这加大了产业内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但无从资金对有色追捧力度来看，仍维系着铜价 易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价，更多的需从金融属性的角度去看， 整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜LME镍跌1.91%报18235 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 铜铝下游开工率有所回升，高价接受度提升 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 24.5 37.5 131.2 沪深 300 1.1 -0.2 23.3 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 3、《有色金属行业周报：LME 铜库 存注销，推动铜价走高》2025-12- 09 ▌贵金属：PCE 数据温和叠加年内仍将降息，支撑贵 金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4946.25 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 16 日+335.20 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-27 今 日 发 现 贵金属市场剧烈波动，交易所出手降温 观点分享： 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX 白银一度大涨超 16%，现货白银一度涨近 14%，双 双站上 117 美元/盎司关口，但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX 白银涨幅收窄 至 2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX 黄金现货黄金一度连续突破 5000 美元、5100 美元两道 关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX 黄金收涨 0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至 0.5%，双双徘 徊于 5000 美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨 7%，最终收跌逾 3%。交易所出手为商品期货市场 降温。上期所上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至 800 手 和 200 手，对 16 名客户限制锡、白银期货开仓 1 个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货 合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%和 11%。广期所 也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | ...

写在黄金5000美元、白银100美元的历史性时刻 我们生活在金属构筑的世界里，从手机中的电路板到街道上的新能源汽车，从照亮城市的电网到储存价值的黄金，这些现 代社会的基本组件，都离不开有色金属的身影。 有色金属，指的是铁、锰、铬以外的所有金属。我们熟悉的铜和铝，贵重的金、银，以及具有战略意义的稀土、钨等，共 同构成了这个庞大的家族。 如果说钢铁是工业的骨架，那么有色金属就好比现代经济的血脉与神经，它们赋予材料导电、导热、耐腐蚀等关键特性， 支撑着技术进步的每个细节。 有色金属价格的起伏，历来反映着经济的周期脉动。但今天，我们目睹的变化似乎有些不同寻常：黄金与铜双双刷新历史 新高，白银、钨等品种在过去一年也录得惊人涨幅。 当多种金属同步呈现强势，往往预示着周期的演进来到了特殊阶段。这一次，驱动周期的很可能是更深层的结构性力量。 全球能源转型、产业链重构与秩序演变，似乎正在共同谱写一段关于金属周期的全新叙事。 01 黄金—— 周期之上的价值锚重塑 黄金，从2022年9月的每盎司1614美元起步，历经三年多的波动与攀升，最终突破5000美元关口，创下百年新高，区间最大 涨幅超过200%。（来源：Wind） 市场的解 ...

文字早评 2026/01/27 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部表示，2026 年将深入实施提振消费专项行动，优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家电、 数码和智能产品等大宗耐用商品消费； 2、国星宇航执行副总裁王亚波披露，成功将通义千问 Qwen3 大模型部署至"星算"计划 01 组太空计算 中心，这是全球首次将通用大模型从地面上注至在轨运行的卫星，实现在轨部署； 3、央行：前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患 维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定； 4、紫金矿业：拟以 280 亿元收购联合黄金 100%股权 其拥有金资源量 533 吨。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.15%/0.26%/-0.11%/-1.14%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.25%/-0.43%/-1.60%/-2.90%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.46%/-0.91%/-2.68%/-4.61%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/0.28%/0.31%/-0.66%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， ...

报告导读： 在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势 的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。 贵金属：贵金属价格继续上行。 北美地缘政治事件发酵，投资者对美元、美债的担忧上升，受益于美元贬值和避险需求，贵金属继续上行并突破关键价格。 展望 2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金 ETF 持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄 金价格的重要因素。白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银 库存下降速度较快。 铜： "硬缺口"与"软胁迫"共振，铜价或偏强运行。 在全球铜矿短缺背景下，供给扰动再起，智利的工会人员阻塞两大铜矿 Escondida 及 Zald í var 的关键 道路， Mantoverde 铜矿罢工升级，该矿已停产， Lundin Mining 下调 2026 年铜和黄金产量指引。宏观方面，特朗普近期或宣布下任美联储主席人选，关 注 市场对美降息的预期 变化，铜价有望偏强运行。 铝：宏观面表现强劲，铝价维持高位震荡。 供应端，日均产量随国内及印尼新投电解铝项目继续爬产有 所提升； 需求端， 得益于中原地区环保管控在元旦后解除，铝板带箔开工明显回升， ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周五沪铜高开至短期均线上方，受贵金属交投情绪及美元疲软显著推动。供应瑞,市场关注智利小型铜矿罢 工与某承包运输公司频繁封路对大型铜矿经营影响。印尼Grasberg预计下半年 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].