Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Non-ferrous and new energy metals, specifically copper, tin, aluminum, zinc, lithium, and nickel markets Key Points and Arguments Copper and Tin Market Dynamics - **Market Shift**: The driving force behind copper and tin prices has shifted from fundamentals to market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased risk aversion [1][2] - **Price Fluctuations**: In Q1 2026, copper prices fluctuated between 88,000 and 91,000 CNY, while tin prices saw significant volatility, with a drop of 20% due to market sentiment [2][3] - **Supply Concerns**: The processing fee for copper concentrate (TC) has dropped to -70 USD/ton, impacting smelter profits and potentially slowing refined copper supply growth in Q2 due to maintenance [1][4] Aluminum Market Insights - **Supply Shortages**: The aluminum market is experiencing significant shortages, with a reduction of 550,000 tons in the Middle East. Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its peak at 45 million tons [1] - **Price Projections**: If geopolitical tensions escalate, aluminum prices may reach historical highs [1][15] Zinc Market Outlook - **Price Range**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 24,500 CNY, with a strong support level at 22,000 CNY due to tight supply conditions [1][26] - **Demand Weakness**: Domestic demand remains weak, particularly in the construction sector, which is affecting overall consumption [20][21] Lithium Market Trends - **Supply Surplus**: A surplus of over 100,000 tons of lithium is expected in 2026, driven by increased production from salt lakes and macroeconomic factors [1][31] - **Price Decline**: Prices may drop to around 120,000 CNY/ton due to increased supply and changing market dynamics [1][32] Nickel Market Analysis - **Inventory Levels**: Nickel inventories across the supply chain are at historically high levels, indicating a prolonged period of market clearing [1][33] - **Supply Disruptions**: Recent policy changes in Indonesia have reduced nickel mining quotas by 30%, impacting supply dynamics [1][34] Semiconductor and AI Impact - **Market Correlation**: The semiconductor market is experiencing structural issues, with strong growth in AI-related hardware but declining shipments in traditional sectors like laptops and smartphones [10] Investment Strategies - **Copper and Tin**: Investors are advised to monitor price corrections and consider options strategies for risk management, especially as prices may rebound after significant declines [7][11] - **Zinc**: The market is expected to experience a range-bound trading environment, with strategies leaning towards short positions during price spikes [26][27] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing market sentiment and commodity prices across various sectors [3][20] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The potential for changes in U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations are critical to future price movements in industrial metals [3][20][32] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of various metal markets and the implications for investors.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 206.68 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 2.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50.30% to 20.34 billion yuan [3] - The production output exceeded the midpoint of guidance by 75%, with significant improvements in cobalt business gross margin [4][6] - The KFM Phase II project is progressing smoothly, and gold is expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 206.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.0% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 20.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 50.3% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 0.95 yuan, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 1.61, 1.74, and 1.94 yuan respectively [11] Production and Pricing - The production of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate increased by 13.99%, 2.96%, -9.68%, -14.17%, 3.23%, and 2.8% respectively [6] - Average prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, ammonium paratungstate, niobium iron, and monoammonium phosphate increased by 8.73%, 42.81%, 5.63%, 57.41%, 4.78%, and 14.53% respectively [6] - The gross margins for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate increased by 4.90 percentage points, 29.31 percentage points, 4.58 percentage points, 1.26 percentage points, 6.98 percentage points, and decreased by 0.31 percentage points respectively [6] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its gold resources, having completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Ecuador's Odin Mining and is in the construction phase, expected to be operational by 2029 [7] - The KFM Phase II expansion project is expected to be completed by 2027, adding a processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year and an annual increase of 100,000 tons of copper metal [7] - The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 34.41 billion yuan and 37.29 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at 41.44 billion yuan [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Core View - As geopolitical risks cool down and market sentiment doesn't improve, industrial products mostly decline. However, with the reduction of geopolitical disturbances, copper prices are expected to return to fundamentals and rise in a volatile manner [6][10] Summary by Section I. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical risks cooled down, but market sentiment didn't improve, and most industrial products closed lower. Spot prices rose by 405 to 95600, and the discount remained flat at 55 [10] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 24,300 tons to 403,100 tons compared to last Thursday. After the holiday, domestic social inventory decreased by nearly 30% from the highest point, and the inventory reduction speed is the fastest in the past five years, indicating high - level downstream consumption [10] - **Scrap Copper Situation**: The refined - scrap copper price difference dropped to - 251. The scrap copper ticket points in Jiangxi and Guangdong exceeded 10%, and the processing fees for crude copper in the north and south decreased rapidly, showing a shortage of scrap copper supply and economy [10] II. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in the second quarter of 2026 [10] - **Co - operation of Mines**: Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco and Anglo American have obtained approval from the Chilean antitrust regulator to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The plan is expected to increase the annual output of copper concentrate by 120,000 tons from 2030 to 2051, with an additional cumulative output of 2.7 million tons of copper and an additional pre - tax value of at least $5 billion [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about copper prices rising in 2026 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - As of March 27, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 95,930 CNY/ton, up 1.26% from March 20, and LME copper closed at 12,141 USD/ton, up 2.59% [1][17]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in non-commercial short positions in COMEX copper, reaching a near six-year low [1]. Supply and Demand Summary Supply - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [3]. - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports increased by 12.2% to 575,000 tons as of March 27, 2026 [2][47]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 1,213 CNY/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][55]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight increase in operating rates to 70.77% [4]. - Air conditioning production is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2026, with year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +6.3%, and +10.5% for April, May, and June respectively [4][93]. - The report notes that the demand for copper in the power sector is significant, with copper wire consumption in this sector accounting for about 30.7% of total copper production [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global reductions in supply estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year [12][15]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to remain strong due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings [6][26]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by rising inflation expectations and a strong dollar, which are exerting downward pressure on metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [11][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [34]. - The gold-silver ratio fell by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34]. - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation [32]. Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8]. - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with LME copper inventories increasing significantly [10]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to keep copper prices supported in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [11]. Small Metals - The price of magnesium increased by 2.04% to 18,530 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand from downstream processing enterprises [19]. - Molybdenum prices are under pressure due to ongoing negotiations between supply and demand, with recent reductions in production impacting prices [20]. - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, with a projected increase of 125.6% in new installations by 2025 [23][24]. Market Review - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, which are affecting investment decisions across various metal sectors [11][12]. - The aluminum market is particularly sensitive to supply disruptions, with significant reductions in production expected from the Middle East and other high-cost regions [15][28]. - Despite concerns over economic weakness, the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains robust due to its essential role in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [14][15].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global production cuts estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year, representing a 3% to 5% reduction in global supply [12][15][28] - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to rise due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against de-dollarization [6][27][33] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a strong likelihood of continued high inflation, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, thereby supporting gold prices in the long term [6][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [35] - The gold-silver ratio decreased by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [35] - Central banks in various countries are expected to resume or increase their gold purchases, driven by geopolitical risks [33] Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8] - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with significant fluctuations in demand from downstream processing enterprises [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions, with production risks in the Middle East and high energy costs impacting the industry [12][15][28] Minor Metals - The magnesium market is experiencing price increases due to strong demand from downstream processing enterprises and stable production levels [19] - Molybdenum prices are under pressure from upstream and downstream market dynamics, with ongoing production cuts affecting market stability [20][21] - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, driven by energy storage needs [24][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the uncertainty in lithium supply is increasing, and lithium prices are expected to continue rising [3] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain under pressure due to stagflation risks, with short-term fluctuations expected [5] - Aluminum prices are projected to maintain high volatility due to overseas supply disruptions and stagflation trading [5] - The lithium market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with demand expected to grow, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, driven by downstream restocking [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown resilience, with the overall performance of the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.87 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.04, indicating a 2.08 increase, while the PB_LF is 3.59, reflecting a 0.26 increase [20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.11%, while Shanghai copper prices increased by 1.26% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant reduction, with a 12.64% decrease in Shanghai copper inventory [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices fell by 1.43%, while Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly by 0.08% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing pressure from increasing domestic inventory and potential supply expansions [5] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 6.04% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 8.41% to 2,230 USD/ton [69] - The lithium supply chain is experiencing disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which may impact future supply [5] Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.38% to 26.25 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 2.06% to 427,000 CNY/ton [84] - Cobalt supply is expected to improve as export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are set to be lifted [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. It is expected that copper prices this week will follow the gold trend to a greater extent and decouple from the negative correlation with crude oil prices. With the easing of market panic after the news of US - Iran peace talks, copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2605) was 95,150 yuan/ton, a 1.1% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main Shanghai copper contract (CU2606) closed at 95,100 yuan/ton at night, with a decline of 1.17%. As of 06:00 on March 27, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract (HGK26E) was 5.4705 US dollars/pound (converted to 83,265 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9), a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract (CA03ME) closed at 12,120 US dollars/ton (converted to 83,678 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9041), with a decline of 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 23, according to local media reports, Freeport - McMoRan in Indonesia will restart production at its Grasberg mine in the next two to three weeks, and Blocks 2 and 3 of the mine will start production [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative export of unwrought copper and copper products was 34.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.5% [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative import of copper ore concentrates was 4.93 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - According to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 23, Zijin Mining's (601899.SH) wholly - owned subsidiary, Zijin Gold, will hold 572 million shares of Chifeng Gold after the transaction with Chifeng Gold is completed, accounting for about 25.85% of the total number of shares after the additional issuance. The company will gain control of Chifeng Gold [1] - According to Wenhua Finance on March 19, KoBold Metals' Mingomba high - grade copper project in Zambia has officially moved from the exploration stage to the development stage, with an average copper grade of 3.64% - 5%. The project is expected to have a total investment of 2.3 - 2.5 billion US dollars, aiming to produce copper in the early 2030s, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 tons after completion [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The high price of crude oil has gradually spread to the middle and lower reaches in 20 days, and inflation has gradually become a fact and continuously strengthened future expectations. Since crude oil has accumulated a gain of about 65% after the war, the contribution of single - day price changes to the cumulative gain is getting smaller, and the impact of single - day crude oil fluctuations on inflation is less than in the early stage of the war. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are directly reflected in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay more attention to the CME FedWatch Tool and the price and term structure of the 30 - day US federal funds futures [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged in December this year is 54.4%, the probability of one interest - rate hike is 35.7%, the probability of two interest - rate hikes is 8.8%, and the probability of one interest - rate cut is 0%, which deviates from the institutional prediction of one interest - rate cut. After the news of US - Iran peace talks, the market panic has eased, so copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1]