Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving up oil prices and strengthening the energy and chemical sectors, while the market is adjusting to these developments [1]. Group 1: Oil Market - The Middle East situation remains tense, with the US military striking Iranian oil facilities, leading to increased oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums. However, the market has already priced in the current level of conflict, suggesting that oil prices may stabilize at high levels in the short term [2][13]. - As of March 5, domestic methanol production facilities operated at an average load of 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period but an increase of 5.72% year-on-year. Coastal methanol inventories stood at 1.4133 million tons, reflecting a 1.04% increase from February 26 and a 35.76% increase year-on-year [2][15]. Group 2: Shipping and Freight - The European shipping index (SCFI) reported a rise of $166 per TEU to $1618, indicating a potential increase in freight rates for the second half of March. However, the market is expected to return to seasonal pricing as geopolitical impacts on freight rates diminish [3][30]. - Maersk and MSC are adjusting their pricing strategies, with Maersk focusing on securing cargo amidst a traditional low season, while MSC has slightly increased rates [3][30]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with a total market turnover of 2.42 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 18.278 billion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [4][11]. - The market is expected to transition from a broad rally to a selective alpha phase, favoring industry leaders with strong earnings while weaker stocks may continue to struggle [4][11]. Group 4: International News - Japan plans to release 80 million barrels of oil from its reserves starting March 16 to mitigate rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. This is the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978 [7]. - The Japanese government aims to stabilize gasoline prices by providing subsidies to oil wholesalers, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports [7]. Group 5: Domestic News - The State Council's food safety office reported a 99.37% compliance rate for major food products in China, indicating a stable improvement in food safety standards over the past four years [8].

2026 年 3 月 15 日 行业研究 国内港口铜精矿库存创 2022 年 5 月以来新低 ——铜行业周报（20260309-20260313） 要点 本周小结：短期铜价震荡，仍看好 2026 年铜价上行。截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日， SHFE 铜收盘价 100310 元/吨，环比 3 月 6 日-0.73%；截至 3 月 13 日，LME 铜收盘价 12736 美元/吨，环比 3 月 6 日-1.04%。（1）宏观：中东地缘风险或 导致油价维持高位，美国降息预期延后；同时，美元因避险走强利空铜价。（2） 供需：TC 现货价再创新低，显示铜精矿现货采购依然紧张；线缆企业开工率本 周环比回升，但旺季效应或自下周开始逐步体现，3 月中下旬有望开始去库。展 望 2026 年，供需偏紧的矛盾依然未变，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内港口铜精矿库存-18%，国内铜社库-0.6%、LME 铜库存环比+6%。 （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 51.9 万吨，环比上周-18.0%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2026 年 3 月 13 日，全 球三大交易所库存合计 ...

原油： SC夜盘继续上涨。美国总统特朗普在佛罗里达州迈阿密市举行的一场新闻发布会上称，美国对 伊朗的军事行动会"很快"结束，但"不会"在本周结束。特朗普称，若伊朗影响到全球原油供应，将对其 予以更猛烈打击；特朗普还表示，若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。但是，伊朗伊斯兰革 命卫队10日凌晨回应特朗普有关伊朗局势的言论时说，战事的结束将由伊朗决定。G7集团能源部长们 周二并未就释放战略石油储备达成一致，而是要求国际能源署先评估形势再采取行动。美国石油学会数 据显示，上周美国原油库存下降，汽油库存和馏分油库存也减少。截止到2026年3月6日当周，美国商业 原油库存减少170万桶 。 欧线： EC上涨3.07%。马士基新开舱第13周，至鹿特丹沿用大柜2200美元，一定程度上传递出传统货 量淡季下，并未直接受到供应链冲击影响的欧线持续性挺价的难度，较为务实的马士基还是将揽货放在 首位，MSC在3月下半月则轻微推涨100美元至大柜2740美元。目前第12周船司的大柜均价在2600美元 左右，测算下来对应的指数为1730点，随着短期地缘情绪对市场的冲击趋于缓和，欧线预计回归自身的 季节性定价，关注后续OA和PA联 ...

研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 11 日 0 / 51 | 金银：风险情绪好转 金银市场有所修复 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：原油市场博弈未止 贵金属板块逆向运行 18 | | 铜：地缘政治风险扰动不断，铜价持续震荡 18 | | 氧化铝：价格随市场情绪回落 海运费维持上涨 19 | | 电解铝：地缘冲突波及铝供应 中东局势具有不确定性 20 | | 铸造铝合金：随铝价宽幅震荡运行 21 | | 锌：警惕资金面对锌价影响 21 | | 股指期货：科技股重新活跃 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏企稳，外需偏强 5 | | 蛋白粕：报告整体中性 | 盘面震荡运行 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价调整 | 国内糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：中东地缘反复，油脂或高位震荡 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡积极性下降 | 蛋价略有回升 11 | | 苹果：苹果 ...

报告导读： 在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势 的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 地缘扰动不改震荡上行；报告日期：2026.03.09 报告作者： 李鹏飞（分析师），登记编号：S0880519080003 魏雨迪（分析师），登记编号：S0880520010002 刘小华（分析师），登记编号：S0880523120003 王宏玉（分析师），登记编号：S0880523060005 梁琳（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070014 李阳（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040114 重要提醒 贵金属：地缘政治扰动持续，通胀 预期压制贵金属价格。 上周（ 3 月 6 日当周）由于中东地缘政治事件的冲击，原油价格涨幅较大，且后续不确定性仍 存。市场对通胀的担忧较高，压制贵金属价格表现。而美国就业数据偏弱，美国经济偏弱，预期地缘政治冲突结束后，美国降息将持续。此外，央行购金持 续，美元指数相对平稳，贵金属的长期逻辑不变。 铜：美非农爆冷提振降息预期，消费回暖支撑铜价。 宏观面，美国 2 ...

| ————————————————01 | 油品——————————————— 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【原油】 | | 2 | | 【燃料油】 | | 2 | | 【LPG】 | | 2 | | ———————————————02 | 芳烃-聚酯—————————————— 3 | | | 【PTA】 | | 3 | | ————————————————03 | 煤化工—————————————— 4 | | | 【尿素】 | | 4 | | 【甲醇】 | | 4 | | ———————————————04 | 盐化工——————————————— 5 | | | 【纯碱】 | | 5 | | 【玻璃】 | | 5 | | 【烧碱】 | | 6 | | ———————————————05 | 有色金属—————————————— 6 | | | 【铜】 | | 6 | | 【黄金】 | | 6 | | 【白银】 | | 7 | | 附录：各版块日度数据监测 | | 8 | ————————————————01 油品———————————————— 【原油】 逻辑：油价日内大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the aluminum industry due to supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are causing disturbances in aluminum supply, which is expected to lead to a continued rise in aluminum prices [6][11]. - The copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices [11]. - The report highlights that the gold industry is also rated as "Recommended" due to the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown a performance increase of 2.4% over the last month, 29.6% over the last three months, and 105.2% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. Price and Inventory Data - Aluminum prices in China are reported at 24,410 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 1,060 CNY/ton from the previous week [8]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8,675 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory increased by 38,512 tons [8]. - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper closing at 12,840 USD/ton, down 642 USD/ton from the previous week [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the operating rate for domestic copper rod production has increased significantly to 62.47%, up 44.09 percentage points [8]. - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation has led to supply disruptions, particularly affecting aluminum production in Qatar and Bahrain [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks across different sectors: - Gold: Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold International [12]. - Copper: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, Wukuang Resources [12]. - Aluminum: Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, China Hongqiao [12]. - Tin: Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous [12]. - Antimony: Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

中东扰动下，金属何去何从？20260308 摘要 钢铁行业进入上行周期：2025 年国内地产用钢占比降至 16%后拖累递 减，2026 年降至 13%以下，内需趋稳；海外 2024 年已转为短缺，全 球供需未来 5 年趋向平衡。 电解铝列入第一梯队：中东地缘扰动影响全球 9%供给，能源与原料双 重受限使供给扰动常态化；1970-80 年历史证明高能源成本是铝价上行 核心推手，价格看涨。 碳素作为高弹性衍生机会：电炉炼钢渗透率提升带动耗材需求，行业准 入门槛高且产能受限；碳素占下游成本不足 1%，对涨价不敏感，价格 弹性预计显著高于钢铁。 黄金配置价值凸显：当前全球金融机构黄金配置比例不足 3%，远低于 历史高点 8%；通胀环境下央行与机构增配逻辑明确，且具备内生并购 成长性，位列第一序列。 铜价短期观望中期乐观：短期受宏观通胀与加息预期压制，10 万-10.4 万元区间支撑强劲；中期受益于科技硬件、电网及脱碳需求增量，具备 有效对冲经济下滑潜力。 锂电与稀土维持中性偏强：碳酸锂 15 万价格中枢支撑明确，需求基本 盘刚性；稀土供给持续收紧，价格易涨难跌，需重点跟踪北方稀土挂牌 价作为阶段性拐点信号。 从行业利 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-09 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 哈梅内伊次子当选伊朗新任最高领袖 观点分享： 据央视报道，当地时间 9 日，伊朗专家会议确定新任伊朗最高领袖人选为穆杰塔巴·哈梅 内伊。公开资料显示，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊出生于 1969 年，是已故伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内 伊的次子。穆杰塔巴对美以的态度是强硬对抗、拒绝谈判，以"复仇"为首要目标；其地区 战略是全力支持真主党、胡塞、伊拉克民兵等抵抗阵线；穆杰塔巴与伊朗革命卫队关系密 切，得到后者的高度支持。可以预料，在能源领域特别是对霍尔木兹海峡管控升级，将大概 率成为新人伊朗最高领袖的反制核心王牌。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 原油 | ★★★★ | 原油：复航难，持续关注上行风险 随着伊拉克、科威特等越来越多海湾国家宣布原油减产，霍尔木兹海峡通行的停滞已经实质 性传导至原油供应端，带动中长期供应紧缺兑现。即便短期地缘降温，通航的恢复以及减产 油田的复产难度也极大。从通航上看，即便恢复，但贸易流也不太可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market by over 10% [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. - It notes a significant tightening in copper concentrate supply, with processing fees dropping sharply, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [4]. - The report also discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to fluctuations in non-farm employment data, suggesting a favorable outlook for precious metals [4]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a seasonal demand recovery, with supply chain issues in the Middle East continuing to impact prices [4]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from positive signals from government meetings, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report indicates a sharp decline in processing fees for copper concentrates, with the latest figures showing a processing cost of -56.0 USD per dry ton, down by 5.5 USD from the previous week [4]. - The LME copper price decreased by 4.7% to 12,808 USD per ton, while SHFE copper fell by 2.8% to 101,050 CNY per ton [4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline, with SHFE gold at 1,140.8 CNY per gram and London spot gold at 5,168.0 USD per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and 1.3% respectively [4]. - The report notes an increase in gold price volatility, which may indicate changing market sentiments [4]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 7.2% to 3,385 USD per ton, while SHFE aluminum increased by 3.7% to 24,715 CNY per ton [4]. - The report highlights a high operating rate of 98.93% for electrolytic aluminum in February, with downstream demand showing signs of recovery post-holiday [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices increased by 13.3% to 905,000 CNY per ton, with significant price adjustments noted for various tungsten products [4]. - The report mentions export controls on certain rare earth items, which may lead to increased demand for non-restricted products [4]. Steel - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar at 3,088 CNY per ton and hot-rolled coil at 3,230 CNY per ton, reflecting week-on-week increases of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [5]. - Total steel inventory rose to 19.52 million tons, with a weekly consumption of 6.335 million tons, indicating a potential recovery in demand [5].