有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 有色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | ♡ 위히 | \\ | | --- | --- | | | ウ咲酸缶 | | ப | 片 72 . | | | //\ www.unwu | 有色周报 铜 一、行情回顾与操作建议 本周沪铜主力运行区间在（90840、94500），总持仓为 63.19 万手，较上周 下降 2.3%，盘面价差结构近月价差为-180。现货市场，临近年末持货商抛售叠加， 国内铜现货升水重心下移，周五转为贴水 160。本周铜价高位震荡运行，宏观面 周五日央行如期加息 25BP，将基本利率上调至 0.75%，在此之前内外股 ...

资料显示，北方铜业股份有限公司位于山西省运城市垣曲县东峰山，成立日期1996年4月2日，上市日期 1997年4月28日，公司主营业务涉及铜矿开采、铜选矿、冶炼、加工制品、含金铜精矿、阳极泥、金 锭、银锭、硫酸、硒粉、铜及铜合金、高精度铜板带、高性能压延铜箔、覆铜板的生产销售。主营业务 收入构成为：阴极铜73.68%，贵金属19.74%，铜带及压延铜箔等4.93%，其他0.85%，硫酸0.80%。 北方铜业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：铜箔、稀缺资源、融资融券、 黄金股、小金属等。 北方铜业今年以来股价涨84.92%，近5个交易日跌2.87%，近20日涨6.04%，近60日跌1.59%。 今年以来北方铜业已经7次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月9日，当日龙虎榜净买入-4410.62万 元；买入总计3.13亿元 ，占总成交额比8.72%；卖出总计3.57亿元 ，占总成交额比9.94%。 12月19日，北方铜业盘中上涨2.01%，截至13:42，报14.22元/股，成交3.72亿元，换手率1.39%，总市值 270.85亿元。 截至12月10日，北方铜业股东户数18.61万，较上期 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/19 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 2025/12/16 -375 3947 115035 45784 -1413.46 -104.22 42.0 48.0 -9.52 166600 64400 2025/12/17 -330 4353 115035 44877 -1276.65 -196.60 44.0 50.0 -9.80 166925 64450 2025/12/18 -415 4343 115035 44650 - -188.76 44.0 50.0 - 164275 61550 变化 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月18日 【原油】 夜盘油价继续反弹。EIA数据显示尽管上周原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油超预期累库。特朗普不断 升级对马杜罗政府施压行为,宣布对进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮突施"全面彻底"封锁,但要 考虑使用受制裁船只来完成委内瑞拉原油出口的数量较为有限这一事实。美委局势可能带来阶段性 风险溢价,然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放 进一步增大供应压力。短期市场多空消息面博弈,油价波动加剧。 (责金属) 本周美国非农等数据验证经济降温轨迹。美联储理事沃勒称货币政策处于限制性区间,仍有降息空 间。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点，如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓震荡,测试短期均线支撑强度。私鲁延长一年现有非法采矿政策。铜市整体持仓高, 昨日上海贴水150元，广东升水75元。2026年供应环境前紧后松，跨年多配冲高潜力仍在。 隔夜沪铝再次站上22000元。迈期铝社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势未改, 短期多头背靠40日线位置持有,跌破则考虑离场观望。 【铸造 ...

资料显示，铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司位于安徽省铜陵市长江西路有色大院西楼，成立日期1996年 11月12日，上市日期1996年11月20日，公司主营业务涉及铜矿开采、冶炼及铜加工业务。主营业务收入 构成为：铜产品83.78%，黄金等副产品13.58%，化工及其他产品2.18%，其他(补充)0.46%。 铜陵有色所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：有色铜、黄金股、稀缺资源、 5G、小金属等。 12月18日，铜陵有色盘中上涨2.03%，截至09:57，报5.54元/股，成交2.97亿元，换手率0.49%，总市值 742.88亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入475.88万元，特大单买入4037.19万元，占比13.61%，卖出3569.50万 元，占比12.03%；大单买入6755.78万元，占比22.77%，卖出6747.59万元，占比22.75%。 铜陵有色今年以来股价涨79.87%，近5个交易日涨3.55%，近20日涨9.70%，近60日涨20.96%。 今年以来铜陵有色已经3次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月28日，当日龙虎榜净买入-1.55亿 元；买入总计3.01亿元 ， ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

黄金方面： 隔夜受美国非农数据的影响，黄金短线上涨，原有的上涨形态得到进一步巩固，中线有望刷新新高。 美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，好于市场预期的5万人，但失业率却意外升至4.6%，高于9月的4.4%，也略高于预期的 4.5%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。 薪资增速也明显放缓，11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速。11月私营部门非农就业人员的平均时薪环比小 幅上涨5美分，涨幅0.1%，至36.86美元。这意味着企业利润增速也在放缓，未来可能会拖累消费端。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，就业市场持续发出变冷的信号，可能促使美联储加快降息的步伐，长期来看利多贵 金属。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，日线上升结构扩大化，形成上升中继形态，长期看涨。1小时周期形成矩形，整体充当上升中继形 态，日内可关注下方4296美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜国际油价一度跌破55美元/桶的重要关口，价格已经和疫情期间基本一致，羸弱的基本面严重拖累了油价，但供过于求的局 面并未出现改善的迹象，油价可能长期维持弱势。 需求端持续疲弱，需求增长远远赶不上供应增长，三大经济体都出现降温的迹象，目前全 ...

来源：中国能源网 能源金属：海外供给端减产信息频现，整个行业减产或停产的信号还会继续出现。从碳酸锂行业的整体 发展节奏看，产能深度整合已经开始，锂价触底回升。建议关注赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、华友钴业。 华安证券近日发布有色金属研究报告：贵金属：全球地缘政治冲突不断推动避险情绪升级，人民银行持 续购入黄金，美联储仍在降息通道，金价具备支撑。能源金属:海外供给端减产信息频现，整个行业减 产或停产的信号还会继续出现。从碳酸锂行业的整体发展节奏看，产能深度整合已经开始，锂价触底回 升。 钨：中国收紧钨供应，市场延续缩量上行。相关公司中钨高新、厦门钨业。 以下为研究报告摘要： 风险提示：宏观经济变动；下游需求不及预期；海外经营风险；矿山安全及环保风险等。(华安证券 许 勇其) 核心观点 贵金属：全球地缘政治冲突不断推动避险情绪升级，人民银行持续购入黄金，美联储仍在降息通道，金 价具备支撑。建议关注紫金矿业、山东黄金。 铜：原料端紧缺，铜价易涨难跌，建议关注紫金矿业、铜陵有色。 铝：电解铝供给限制，新能源需求贡献增量，供弱需强持续演绎；利润端，2025年氧化铝产能陆续释 放，氧化铝价格持续下行，利润有望修复。建议关注神火股份 ...

大宗周期-有色金属行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 2026 年黄金价格预计将受益于美元信用走弱，美联储降息预期、鲍威 尔卸任后可能出现的政策不确定性，以及美国财政和政治问题，将共同 推动金价上涨，全球央行购金也将形成支撑。 铜市场方面，海外铜矿项目面临资源禀赋降低、政策约束强化等问题， 限制了产能释放。同时，AI 硬件和算力基础设施建设将显著拉动铜需求， 预计铜价仍将处于中枢上行趋势。 电解铝市场，国内产能接近天花板，海外高电价加剧了产能运行的不确 定性。尽管如此，新能源汽车需求的强劲增长以及国内外电解铝库存处 于历史低位，预示着电解铝价格弹性有望进一步放大。 锡市场供应端面临印尼打击非法采矿、缅甸复产缓慢以及刚果（金）战 乱等多重扰动，导致全球锡供应紧张。国内锡矿加工费已触及近五年低 位，AI 产业增长将带动锡焊料需求，预计价格中枢将开启长周期上行趋 势。 碳酸锂市场在 2026 年将延续强劲势头，国内云母矿供应波动风险依然 存在，海外锂资源扩张周期进入中后段。新能源汽车和储能需求的快速 增长将为碳酸锂提供支撑，储能有望成为新的增长极。 Q&A 展望 2026 年，有色金属板块的投资逻辑主要集中在三条 ...