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商贸零售行业跟踪周报:绿联科技2025Q3业绩增速加速,关注NAS新消费趋势-20251026
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-26 14:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Ugreen Technology's Q3 2025 revenue grew by 60% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 67%, driven by the high growth of NAS products, which are expected to become a significant growth driver for the company [5][10] - The NAS market is projected to experience double-digit growth globally, with a market size of $6.1 billion in 2024 and an expected annual growth rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030 [10][11] - The penetration rate of NAS devices is anticipated to rise as digitalization increases, with users including individual enthusiasts, small studios, and small businesses [10] Market Performance - From October 19 to October 26, the Shenwan Retail Index increased by 0.46%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index surged by 8.05% [17][19] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenwan Retail Index up by 2.21%, compared to a 48.09% increase in the ChiNext Index [17][21] Company Analysis - Ugreen's NAS product market share reached 42% in H1 2025, more than doubling year-on-year, while the leading competitor, Synology, saw its market share drop from 67% in H2 2019 to 24% in H1 2025 [12][16] - Ugreen's NAS product, DXP4800, is competitively priced at approximately 2,199 RMB, offering a price advantage over higher-end competitors [14] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the industry, indicating Ugreen Technology's market capitalization at 24.6 billion RMB with a projected P/E ratio of 53 for 2024 [23][25]