绿联科技 20260320 摘要 绿联科技 2026 年 1-2 月销售额增速超 2025Q4，预计 2026 年归母净 利润达 10 亿元，同比增约 50%，对应 PE 约 30 倍。 NAS 业务为核心驱动力，2025 年营收约 10 亿，国内市占率超 30%居 首；预计 2026 年收入达 15-20 亿，增速接近 100%。 AINAS 搭载英特尔 Ultra 系列芯片，支持 50-100 亿参数大模型本地运 行；深圳市龙岗区提供 30%专项补贴利好放量。 海外业务占比 60%且毛利率超 40%（高出国内 15pct），已进驻 Walmart、Costco 等主流线下渠道，支撑整体利润 30%-40%增速。 产品定位"终端性价比"，主打低加价率策略 vs 安克创新高溢价路线； 充电类产品营收占比 40%，增速维持 50%以上。 盈利拐点看海外 C 端及 B 端市场，海外定价高出国内 30%+；高端型号 切入中小企业存储市场，对标威联通 20%净利率空间。 Q&A 请介绍一下绿联科技近期的整体经营表现和增长趋势？ 从 2025 年下半年开始，绿联科技的增速一直维持在高位。2025 年第三季度， 公司实现 ...

公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,803 | 6,170 | 8,688 | 11,641 | 14,834 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.1% | 28.5% | 40.8% | 34.0% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 438 | 517 | 791 | 1,114 | 1,500 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.3% | 18.2% | 52.9% | 40.8% | 34.7% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 388 | 462 | 695 | 982 | 1,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 18.4% | 19.3% | 50.4% | 41.3% | 34.1% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.68 | 2.37 | 3.17 | | 毛利率(%) | 37.6% | 37.4% | 37.8% | 38.3% | 38.7% | | 净利率(%) | ...

绿联科技 301606.SZ 公司研究 | 首次报告 品牌崛起，NAS 提速 绿联科技首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 头部科技消费电子出海企业，营收净利快速增长。1)公司成立于 2012 年，深耕 3C 消费电子研发、设计、生产与销售，打造出具备全球影响力的品牌 UGREEN 绿联。 2)公司多品类、多渠道、多区域布局，形成较强的抗风险能力，线上销售占比约 75%，亚马逊作为核心渠道占比约 35%；境外占比提至约 60%，亚欧美分布均匀。 3)公司 2020-24 年营收自 20.4 亿元增至 61.7 亿元，CAGR 达 24.7%；归母净利自 2.27 亿元增至 4.62 亿元，CAGR 达 15.3%；据 2025 年业绩快报，归母净利增速 41- 59%彰显增长势能强劲。4)公司毛利率稳健但净利率略波动，我们认为因新品研发 及营销影响，随规模优势、品牌声量增强、新品放量，盈利能力有望提升。 ⚫ 全球科技消费电子市场规模稳步提升，NAS 望成重要新 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.22 服务消费新政频出，看好出行链机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.3.16-2026.3.22） | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 范佳博(研究助理) | 021-38053328 | fanjiabo@gtht.com | S0880125120019 | 本报告导读： 服务消费新政频发，看好出行链机会 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 投资观点：1）继续看好旅游出行：酒店（推荐华住集团-S、首旅酒 店、锦江酒店，相关标的亚朵），景区（推荐九华旅游、三特索道、 黄山旅游、三峡旅游、峨眉山 A 等）。2）竞争格局显著改善：菜百 股份、行动教 ...

商贸零售行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 欧洲储能需求上行，消费级储能同样受益 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：我们认为全球消费级储能同样契合能源安全基础设施的逻辑，多家跨境电商 及贸易企业积极布局该赛道，强化研发创新及渠道建设，看好头部公司产品放量。 相关标的 ： 安 克 创 新(300866，未评级)、华宝新能(301327，未评级)、绿联科技 (301606，未评级)、苏美达(600710，未评级) 风险提示： 行业竞争加剧、储能需求增长不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 商贸零售行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 19 日 看好（维持） | CES 百花齐放，AI 智能眼镜方兴未艾 | 2026-01-15 | | --- | --- | | AI 应用繁花似锦，电商产业链先行受益 | 2026-01-12 | | 国补落地，看好智能眼镜及商超百货 | 2026-01-04 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 欧洲储能需求上行，政策端协同共振。1)受地缘冲突影响，全球能源供应与 ...

风险提示： 行业竞争加剧、储能需求增长不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 商贸零售行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 19 日 看好（维持） 陈笑 执业证书编号：S0860525100005 chenxiao2@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 商贸零售行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 欧洲储能需求上行，消费级储能同样受益 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：我们认为全球消费级储能同样契合能源安全基础设施的逻辑，多家跨境电商 及贸易企业积极布局该赛道，强化研发创新及渠道建设，看好头部公司产品放量。 相关标的 ： 安 克 创 新(300866，未评级)、华宝新能(301327，未评级)、绿联科技 (301606，未评级)、苏美达(600710，未评级) | CES 百花齐放，AI 智能眼镜方兴未艾 | 2026-01-15 | | --- | --- | | AI 应用繁花似锦，电商产业链先行受益 | 2026-01-12 | | 国补落地，看好智能眼镜及商超百货 | 2026-01-04 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for new consumption and modern service industries, particularly highlighting the positive outlook for travel and tourism [3][6] - It identifies significant investment opportunities in the tourism sector, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism [6][7] - The competitive landscape is noted to have improved significantly, with companies like Caibai Co., Action Education, and China Duty Free Group showing strong performance [6][7] - Recent earnings reports are expected to exceed market expectations, particularly for companies like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [6] - Individual stock opportunities include Jiangsu Guotai, SuMeida, and HaiDiLao, among others [6][7] Industry Updates - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, air travel reached nearly 95 million passengers, marking a historical high with a daily average of 2.36 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [6] - The China Household Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo showcased innovative products, such as Anker Innovations' first consumer-grade 3D texture UV printer [6] - Notable sales growth was reported by companies like Bubu Gao, with a 24% year-on-year increase in sales for its "Fat Transformation" stores [6] Company Performance Predictions - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies in the social service retail sector, indicating strong growth potential for firms like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [7][9] - Specific financial metrics include projected revenues and net profits for various companies, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated for Laopu Gold and others [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report rates Ugreen Technology as a "Buy" with projected EPS of 1.11 in 2024, increasing to 3.60 by 2027 [8]. Core Insights - The consumer-grade NAS industry is projected to reach a size of $540 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 31% from 2021 to 2024, indicating strong growth potential despite its smaller market size [2][18]. - The competitive landscape shows traditional players like Synology and QNAP as market leaders, while emerging brands like Ugreen are rapidly gaining market share, with Ugreen expected to become the top consumer-grade NAS brand by 2025 [3][24]. Summary by Sections Product Definition - NAS (Network Attached Storage) is defined as a file-specific storage device that operates 24/7, allowing continuous data access for effective collaboration [11]. - The main components of NAS include a CPU, network interface, storage drives, and an operating system, which collectively enable various functionalities such as data management and remote access [11]. Industry Overview - The NAS market is characterized by high growth rates and strong profitability, with traditional players like QNAP showing high gross margins of 56.3% and net margins of 19.8% [21]. - Ugreen's gross margin for smart storage was reported at 28.1%, indicating significant room for improvement [21]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics reveal that established brands like Synology and QNAP dominate the market, while newer entrants like Ugreen and Extreme Space are rapidly increasing their market presence [24]. - By 2025, Ugreen is projected to capture 20.6% of the global consumer-grade NAS market in terms of shipment volume [24]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The core demand for NAS revolves around data storage and management, with software capabilities being a critical driver of product competitiveness [34]. - The potential market for NAS is substantial, with estimates suggesting future sales could reach between 19.4 million to 32.7 million units, given the right market conditions [39]. Product Dynamics - Ugreen's product strategy focuses on "hit products," with significant sales contributions from key models like DH4300 and DXP4800, which together account for a large portion of their sales [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of software capabilities and user-friendliness in driving consumer adoption of NAS products [58]. Future Outlook - The integration of AI into NAS products is expected to transform them into smart home data centers, enhancing their functionality and market appeal [48]. - Ugreen's upcoming AI NAS products are anticipated to open new price points and market segments, with pre-sale prices ranging from $999 to $1,559 [45].

Investment Rating - The report rates Ugreen Technology as a "Buy" with projected EPS of 1.11 in 2024, increasing to 3.60 by 2027 [8]. Core Insights - The consumer-grade NAS industry is projected to reach a scale of $540 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 31% from 2021 to 2024, indicating strong growth potential despite its smaller market size [2][18]. - The competitive landscape shows traditional players like Synology and QNAP as market leaders, while emerging brands like Ugreen are rapidly gaining market share, with Ugreen expected to become the top consumer-grade NAS brand by 2025 [3][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Product Definition and Market Dynamics - NAS (Network Attached Storage) is defined as a file-specific storage device that operates 24/7, allowing continuous data access and effective collaboration through the network [11]. - The demand for NAS is driven by data storage and management needs, with potential sales volume estimated between 19.4 million to 32.7 million units by 2026, compared to current shipments of less than 2 million units [4][39]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - The demand side indicates that storage needs define the volume limit, while management capabilities can open up pricing ceilings [34]. - The supply side emphasizes that product quality is driven by both software and hardware capabilities, with software being a critical competitive factor [49]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The NAS market is characterized by a mix of established players and new entrants, with Ugreen and other mainland brands showing significant growth potential [3][24]. - By 2025, Ugreen is projected to capture over 20% of the global consumer-grade NAS market share, with a sales revenue of approximately 9.7 billion yuan [25][28]. 4. Future Outlook and Innovations - The integration of AI into NAS products is expected to transform them into smart data management centers for homes, enhancing their functionality and market appeal [45][48]. - Ugreen's upcoming AI NAS products are set to be priced between $999 and $1,559, indicating a potential shift in the pricing landscape for NAS devices [45]. 5. Key Product Insights - Ugreen's product strategy focuses on innovation, with significant sales contributions from flagship models like DH4300 and DXP4800, which together account for a large portion of their sales [49][54]. - The report highlights the importance of product updates and new releases in driving market share and sales growth for Ugreen [54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [49]. Core Insights - OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI virtual assistant software project designed to perform complex tasks autonomously based on user instructions, marking a significant advancement from traditional chatbots [4][15]. - The demand for AI agents is expected to accelerate, with the number of agents in Chinese enterprises projected to exceed 350 million by 2031, achieving a compound annual growth rate of over 135% [5][24]. - The release of GPT-5.4 enhances the capabilities of AI agents, allowing them to perform complex workflows across software applications, which is crucial for the commercial viability of OpenClaw [5][28][31]. - OpenClaw's rise is anticipated to have three major impacts on the industry: it will likely become one of the first application scenarios for AI agents, increase token consumption significantly, and boost the demand for domestic large models [6][34]. Summary by Sections 01 OpenClaw: A New Era of AI Employees - OpenClaw is an open-source AI agent project developed by Peter Steinberger, initially released as Clawdbot in late 2025 and later renamed [11]. - It is designed to autonomously execute tasks for users, offering capabilities such as file operations, process orchestration, and multi-platform interactions [15][19]. 02 Demand Side: Expansion of Agent Demand - AI agents are seen as a feasible direction for application deployment, with their proactive capabilities distinguishing them from traditional AI assistants [21]. - The growth in agent numbers and token consumption in China is expected to accelerate, driven by advancements in local models and supportive industrial policies [24]. 03 Supply Side: Continuous Iteration of Large Models and Strengthening of Underlying Technologies - The release of GPT-5.4 marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, particularly in enhancing agent functionalities [28]. - The ongoing improvements in large model technologies are crucial for the commercial success of AI agents like OpenClaw [31]. 04 Impact of OpenClaw's Emergence on the Industry - OpenClaw is gaining rapid popularity, surpassing many established projects on GitHub, indicating its potential as a leading application scenario for AI agents [34]. - The increase in token consumption associated with OpenClaw is expected to drive demand for computing power and cloud services [40]. - The demand for domestic large models is anticipated to rise, with OpenClaw primarily utilizing Chinese models, which may accelerate their international expansion [41]. 05 Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include companies involved in large models and applications, as well as those providing computing infrastructure, indicating a broad investment opportunity in the AI sector [46].