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粤海投资(0270.HK):掌握对港供水资产的广东国企 2025年迈入稳健分红期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-08 11:46
Core Viewpoint - The company, a state-owned enterprise in Guangdong, has a strong portfolio in water supply to Hong Kong, with a national layout and significant contributions from its water resources segment, which accounts for 81% of its pre-tax profits [1] Water Resources - The East Shenzhen water supply project has a yearly supply capacity of 2.423 billion cubic meters, providing 70%-80% of Hong Kong's freshwater and over 50% of Shenzhen's water needs [1] - The project is expected to supply 39% of its total water to Hong Kong in 2024, contributing 81% to the project's total revenue [1][2] - The project has reached its supply limit of 820 million cubic meters to Hong Kong over the past four years, with stable demand driven by the region's population [2] Other Business Segments - The company has streamlined its operations, with the water resources segment projected to contribute 81% to overall performance in 2024, followed by property investment at 10% [3] - The property investment segment, particularly Tianhe City, has shown stable profits and improved rental rates [3] - The energy segment's profits are linked to coal prices, while hotel operations have returned to normal levels [3] Financial Analysis & Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 6.51% to 6.93% over the next three years, with a sustainable net profit of 4.1 billion HKD in 2024 [3][4] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease to 30.9% by the end of 2024, indicating effective control over interest-bearing liabilities [3] - Future net profits are forecasted at 4.54 billion HKD in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.98x [4]