Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Yuehai Investment (00270.HK) has demonstrated strong growth and resilience in its mid-2025 financial report, focusing on its core business and enhancing its competitive moat despite a complex macroeconomic environment [1][15]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yuehai Investment achieved an unaudited net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 26.82 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [4]. - The company's diversified business model, including water resources, property investment, energy, and transportation, contributed to its stable performance [4][12]. Core Business Segments - **Water Resources**: The East Shenzhen Water Supply Project generated a pre-tax profit of HKD 23.96 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year. Other water projects also saw a revenue increase of 2.3% to HKD 36.80 billion, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 10.79 billion [6]. - **Property Investment**: The property investment segment, including Yuehai Tianhe City, reported a revenue increase of 3.6% to HKD 8.22 billion, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 4.92 billion, up 9.7% [8]. - **Energy Projects**: The energy segment maintained stable revenue, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 91.18 million, reflecting a growth of 22.7% [9]. - **Road Operations**: Yuehai Expressway generated toll revenue of HKD 290 million, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 147 million [10]. - **Hotel Business**: The hotel segment achieved revenue of HKD 337 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [10]. - **Department Store Business**: Revenue reached HKD 217 million, with a pre-tax profit growth of 18.5% to HKD 45.83 million [11]. Strategic Moves - The strategic divestment of Yuehai Land on January 21, 2025, significantly improved the company's financial fundamentals, reducing the capital debt ratio to 24.70%, down 6.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [13]. - The company's financial borrowings decreased from HKD 238.62 billion at the end of 2024 to HKD 211.77 billion by mid-2025, indicating a healthier financial position [13][14]. Market Position and Outlook - Yuehai Investment is positioned as a defensive asset with a high dividend strategy, offering a dividend of HKD 0.2666 per share, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, resulting in a dividend yield close to 5% [18]. - The company benefits from a monopoly advantage in the water resources and public utilities sector, supported by favorable policies, enhancing its market position [20]. - The market's perception of the company's "de-real estate" strategy is strengthening, with improved financial fundamentals likely to catalyze valuation reassessment [20]. Conclusion - Overall, Yuehai Investment's mid-2025 financial report reflects its focus on core business, solid performance across key segments, and strategic asset optimization, establishing a robust foundation for future growth [25].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-2025 financial report of Yuehai Investment (00270.HK) demonstrates strong growth momentum amid a complex macroeconomic environment, highlighting the company's unique value and long-term growth potential through key financial indicators and optimized business layout [1][3][25]. Financial Performance - Yuehai Investment achieved an unaudited net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.682 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, driven by the collaborative performance of its core business segments [3][25]. - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial fundamentals following the spin-off of Yuehai Land, with a capital debt ratio of 24.7%, down 6.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [14][15]. Core Business Segments - The water resources segment, a core business, generated stable revenue, with the Dongshen water supply project contributing a pre-tax profit of HKD 2.396 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year [5][6]. - The property investment segment saw a revenue increase of 3.6% to HKD 822 million, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 492 million, up 9.7% [7][13]. - The energy projects segment maintained stable revenue, achieving a pre-tax profit of HKD 91.177 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [10][13]. - The highway operations generated toll revenue of HKD 290 million, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 147 million [11][13]. Strategic Developments - The strategic spin-off of Yuehai Land marks a significant adjustment in the company's business layout, allowing for a focused approach on core areas such as water resources [14][15]. - The optimization of the asset structure post-spin-off has led to a healthier financial status, enabling the company to better respond to market fluctuations and uncertainties [15]. Market Position and Outlook - Yuehai Investment is positioned as a defensive asset with a high dividend strategy, offering a dividend of HKD 0.2666 per share, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with a dividend yield close to 5% [18][26]. - The company benefits from a monopoly advantage in the water resources and public utilities sector, supported by favorable policies, enhancing its bargaining power and industry position [20][21]. - The market's perception of the company's "de-real estate" strategy is strengthening, with improved financial fundamentals likely to catalyze valuation reassessment [21][26].

Core Viewpoint - Yuehai Investment (00270) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 7.4, with a trading volume of HKD 124 million, following the release of its interim results [1] Financial Performance - The revenue from continuing operations was HKD 9.428 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, primarily due to declines in department store operations, road and bridge business, and power generation [1] - The profit attributable to owners was HKD 2.682 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, mainly due to savings in financial expenses and exchange gains from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.4102, with an interim dividend proposed at HKD 0.2666 per share [1] Business Segments - The water resources business showed stable revenue growth, with the Dongshen water supply project contributing 68.95% of pre-tax profit, achieving both revenue and profit growth despite a slight decline in water supply volume, indicating a smooth market-based pricing mechanism and strong profitability [1] - Following the divestment of Yuehai Land, the company's capital liability ratio decreased to 24.70%, and financial expenses were reduced by HKD 201 million compared to the same period last year [1] Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities noted the stable performance of the water segment and improvements in the liability side post-divestment, highlighting a stable dividend payout ratio and strong dividend certainty, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in main business revenue but an increase in net profit, driven by growth in water resources and hotel businesses, alongside cost savings and currency exchange gains [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved main business revenue of HKD 9.428 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.682 billion, an increase of 11.2% [1]. - The increase in net profit was primarily due to savings in financial expenses and exchange gains from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]. Business Segment Performance - Water Resources Division: Contributed HKD 7.184 billion in revenue (up 0.6%), with mainland China water supply revenue at HKD 2.284 billion (up 3.7%) and Hong Kong water supply revenue at HKD 2.869 billion (up 2.4%) [1][2]. - Property Investment: Contributed HKD 124 million in revenue (up 10.6%) and segment profit of HKD 480 million (up 12.7%) [1]. - Department Store Operations: Revenue decreased by 45.5% to HKD 202 million, primarily due to a 49.4% drop in Tianhe City department store revenue [2]. - Hotel Division: Revenue increased by 7.4% to HKD 320 million, but segment profit decreased by 14.6% [2]. - Roads and Bridges Division: Revenue decreased by 6.9% to HKD 301 million, with segment profit down by 1.8% [2]. - Power Generation Division: Revenue decreased by 2.9% to HKD 611 million, while segment profit increased by 9.4% [2]. Water Resources Project Insights - The Dongshen Water Supply Project achieved revenue of HKD 3.506 billion (up 0.6%) and contributed a pre-tax profit of HKD 2.396 billion (up 3.1%) [2][3]. - Despite a slight decline in total water supply volume by 1.0% to 1.147 billion tons, the project demonstrated strong profitability due to effective market pricing mechanisms [3]. Financial Metrics and Dividends - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 65%, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.2666 per share, an increase of 11.22% [3]. - Operating cash flow decreased by 31.52% to HKD 3.339 billion, while capital expenditure increased by 27.19% to HKD 566 million [3]. - After the divestment of Yuehai Land, the capital debt ratio improved to 24.70%, with financial expenses reduced by HKD 201 million [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains stable performance in the water sector and improved debt metrics post-divestment, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.274 billion, HKD 4.357 billion, and HKD 4.453 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.5, 10.3, and 10.1 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report initiates coverage on Yuehai Investment with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.10, corresponding to a 2025 target PE of 14.0 times [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yuehai Investment is a quality water service platform controlled by Guangdong state-owned assets, with its core asset being the Dongshen Water Supply Project [1] - The company's business includes five main segments: water services, property investment and development, department store operations, hotel ownership and management, and energy road and bridge [1] - After divesting Yuehai Land, the company's fundamentals have stabilized, and it has strong free cash flow, which is expected to continue providing high dividend returns [1] Group 2: Dongshen Water Supply Project - The Dongshen Water Supply Project has supplied a cumulative total of 30 billion cubic meters of water to Hong Kong since 1965, accounting for nearly 80% of Hong Kong's freshwater consumption [2] - The projected water supply to Hong Kong in 2024 is 8 million tons, with a water price of HKD 6.42 per ton [2] - The project has undergone two pricing phases, with a "bundled reduction" mechanism implemented since 2020, and the basic water price is expected to grow at a rate of 2.39% year-on-year from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The DCF valuation of the Dongshen Water Supply Project is estimated to be between HKD 45 billion and HKD 62 billion, assuming contract renewal until 2120 [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Dividend Outlook - Free cash flow is expected to reach HKD 9.229 billion in 2024, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 65% following the divestment of Yuehai Land [3] - The dividend payout ratio, considering physical dividends, is projected to be 78.87%, significantly higher than the industry average of 57.76%, with a dividend yield of 5.65% [3] - For 2025-2027, the company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 65%, with projected dividend yields of 6.02%, 6.28%, and 6.54% respectively, making it attractive compared to peers [3] Group 4: Market Perspective and Valuation - The market expresses concerns regarding the uncertainties surrounding the renewal of the Dongshen Water Supply Project's franchise rights, water pricing, and transaction pricing [3] - The company believes that the visibility of the renewal is strong due to its historical significance and multiple asset restructuring plans [3] - The DCF valuation of the Dongshen project, along with contributions from other water resources and businesses, indicates that Yuehai Investment remains a valuable investment even under pessimistic assumptions [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are HKD 4.218 billion, HKD 4.397 billion, and HKD 4.576 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.2%, 4.2%, and 4.1% respectively [4] - The company is assigned a target PE of 14.0 times for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 9.10, reflecting its stable growth and high dividend yield compared to industry averages [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yuehai Investment with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 9.10, corresponding to a 2025 target PE of 14.0 times [1][7]. Core Views - Yuehai Investment is a high-quality water utility platform controlled by Guangdong state-owned assets, with its core asset being the Dongshen Water Supply Project, which has undergone significant structural changes since 1997 [1]. - The company has a strong free cash flow and is expected to maintain high dividend returns following the divestment of Yuehai Land [1][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Dongshen Water Supply Project is a premium asset, accounting for nearly 80% of Hong Kong's freshwater supply, with a projected revenue of HKD 63.60 billion in 2024, representing 34% of total revenue [20]. - The company has turned positive in free cash flow since 2023, with projections of HKD 92.29 billion in 2024, and maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 65% [21]. - The divestment of Yuehai Land allows the company to focus on its core water business, enhancing stability and potentially increasing valuation [22]. Valuation and Financial Projections - The DCF valuation of the Dongshen Water Supply Project is estimated between HKD 450 billion and HKD 620 billion, with a stable profit contribution from other water resources and businesses [2][23]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is HKD 42.18 billion, HKD 43.97 billion, and HKD 45.76 billion, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.65, HKD 0.67, and HKD 0.70 [5][11]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts with market concerns regarding the uncertainty of the Dongshen project's operating rights renewal, water pricing, and transaction pricing, asserting that the renewal visibility is strong due to the project's historical significance [4][23]. - The report emphasizes that the water pricing will remain reasonable despite rising costs, as the Hong Kong Water Supplies Department aims to adjust water pricing cautiously [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The company, a state-owned enterprise in Guangdong, has a strong portfolio in water supply to Hong Kong, with a national layout and significant contributions from its water resources segment, which accounts for 81% of its pre-tax profits [1] Water Resources - The East Shenzhen water supply project has a yearly supply capacity of 2.423 billion cubic meters, providing 70%-80% of Hong Kong's freshwater and over 50% of Shenzhen's water needs [1] - The project is expected to supply 39% of its total water to Hong Kong in 2024, contributing 81% to the project's total revenue [1][2] - The project has reached its supply limit of 820 million cubic meters to Hong Kong over the past four years, with stable demand driven by the region's population [2] Other Business Segments - The company has streamlined its operations, with the water resources segment projected to contribute 81% to overall performance in 2024, followed by property investment at 10% [3] - The property investment segment, particularly Tianhe City, has shown stable profits and improved rental rates [3] - The energy segment's profits are linked to coal prices, while hotel operations have returned to normal levels [3] Financial Analysis & Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 6.51% to 6.93% over the next three years, with a sustainable net profit of 4.1 billion HKD in 2024 [3][4] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease to 30.9% by the end of 2024, indicating effective control over interest-bearing liabilities [3] - Future net profits are forecasted at 4.54 billion HKD in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.98x [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [10]. Core Insights - Yuehai Investment is a Guangdong state-owned enterprise with a strong portfolio in water supply to Hong Kong, holding a 30-year concession for the Dongshen Water Supply Project, which accounts for 70%-80% of local freshwater usage. The company is expected to enter a stable dividend phase by 2025, with an estimated dividend yield of 6.77% [3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuehai Investment is primarily focused on water resources, with the Guangdong provincial government holding a 58.27% stake. The company operates five main business segments, with the water resources segment contributing 81% to the overall pre-tax profit. The Dongshen Water Supply Project is the core asset, providing stable cash flow [6][16]. Water Resources - The Dongshen Water Supply Project has a supply capacity of 2.423 billion cubic meters annually, supplying 70%-80% of Hong Kong's freshwater and over 50% of Shenzhen's water. The project is expected to generate 39% of its total supply to Hong Kong in 2024, contributing 81% to the project's total revenue [7][36]. Other Water Projects - Other water resource projects have entered a stable operational phase, with a design capacity of 5.895 billion tons/year for water supply and 1.221 billion tons/year for sewage treatment. Revenue from construction has declined significantly, indicating a shift to stable operations [8][30]. Other Business Segments - The performance of other business segments has stabilized after the removal of factors causing volatility. The contributions to pre-tax profit from various segments are 81% from water resources, 10% from property investment, and smaller percentages from other sectors [9][23]. Financial Analysis & Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a sustainable net profit of HKD 4.1 billion in 2024, with a debt ratio of 30.9% by the end of 2024. The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain at 65% for 2023-2024, with forecasted net profits of HKD 4.54 billion, HKD 4.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [10][28].