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首次跌破1.2,日本彻底躺平了
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-07 13:52
Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis with a record low birth rate of 1.15 in 2024, leading to concerns about the future of the nation and its workforce [3][6][8]. Group 1: Birth Rate Statistics - The number of newborns in Japan for 2024 is projected to be approximately 686,000, which is significantly lower than previous estimates that predicted this milestone would not be reached until 2039 [3][6]. - Japan's fertility rate is the lowest among East Asian countries, with South Korea at 0.78, China at 1.18, and Japan at 1.26 according to World Bank data from 2022 [8][10]. Group 2: Societal Impacts - The low birth rate directly contributes to an aging population and a shrinking workforce, which poses challenges for economic stability and social services [10][22]. - The phenomenon of "one-person economy" is rising in Japan, with individuals increasingly choosing to live alone and prioritize personal enjoyment over traditional family structures [14][16]. Group 3: Government Response - Japan's government has been attempting to address the declining birth rate since the 1990s, implementing various policies such as the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, which aimed to create a supportive environment for child-rearing [21][22]. - Despite significant investments in these initiatives, the birth rate continues to decline, leading to the term "low birthrate and aging society" being coined to describe the current situation [22][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture, including the introduction of a four-day workweek [35][36]. - The government is also considering the introduction of foreign labor to mitigate workforce shortages, as there is a growing acceptance of foreign workers in various sectors [33][34].
首次跌破1.2,日本彻底躺平了
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-06 12:34
Core Viewpoint - Japan's birth rate has fallen below 700,000, reaching this milestone 15 years earlier than previously expected, raising concerns about the country's demographic future [3][5]. Demographic Trends - To maintain population stability, a birth rate of 2.1 is necessary, but Japan's current rate is only 1.26, with China at 1.18 and South Korea at 0.78, indicating a significant decline in East Asia [4][5]. - Japan's total population is less than one-tenth of China's, with only 700,000 newborns annually, highlighting the severity of the situation [9]. Historical Context - Japan has been aware of its declining birth rate since around 1990, with no significant recovery since then [10][11]. - The population structure has shifted since 2005, with the death rate exceeding the birth rate, leading to an aging population that now constitutes 27% of the total [27][28]. Government Response - The Japanese government has implemented various policies since the 1990s, including the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, aimed at encouraging childbirth and supporting families [23][25]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these policies has been questioned, as the birth rate continues to decline [26]. Societal Changes - There is a growing trend of individuals choosing not to have children, with 33.4% of women and an increasing number of men opting for lifelong singlehood [32][33]. - The rise of "one-person economies" reflects a societal shift where individuals find fulfillment in single lifestyles rather than traditional family structures [15][17]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture [41][47]. - The introduction of foreign labor could help mitigate workforce shortages, as Japan remains relatively open to foreign workers despite limited immigration policies [45][46]. Conclusion - Japan faces a critical demographic challenge with low birth rates and an aging population, prompting a reevaluation of societal norms and government strategies to address these issues [42][51].