东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ 编者荐语： 严格来说，一个国家和一个城市相比并不合理，不过低生育率的原因有一些相通之处，不妨看看韩国是 如何应对的，有哪些利弊。 以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 然而 2023年以后，韩国生育率却来了一波触底反弹。 2024年总和生育率回弹至0.75，2025年第一季度更是 回到0.82。2024年新生儿数达到23.83万人，比2023年增长3.6%。 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育 ...

以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 本文来自微信公众号： 地球知识局 ，作者：一猴儿，制图：桐，编辑：Alicia，原文标题：《大涨0.03，韩国生育率超过上海了》，头图来自：AI生 成 东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ GEO-KNOWLEDGE GROUP 2023 型变化 12 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育率反弹的呢？ 补贴生育大撒币 刺激生育最传统的方法就是大规模的财政支持——撒币。 家庭是生育的基石，鼓励结婚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining output growth in the face of accelerating population aging is to improve labor productivity through technological advancement, increasing labor participation rates, and expanding overseas operations [2]. Group 1: Global Population Trends - The global population is transitioning through four stages of demographic transformation, with most countries having completed industrialization or being in its middle stages, leading to a decline in the demographic dividend and an increase in aging and low birth rates [5][10]. - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 10.2%, with this figure expected to rise to 13.1% by 2035, indicating a shift towards moderate aging societies [10]. - The total fertility rate globally has decreased from a peak of 5.32 in the 1960s to 2.25 in 2024, nearing the replacement level of 2.1, with developed economies facing significant challenges related to low birth rates [11]. Group 2: China's Population Challenges - China is entering a phase of accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older expected to reach 15.6% by 2024, transitioning to a moderately aged society [16]. - The total fertility rate in China has fallen below the replacement level since 1991, reaching 1.0 in 2023, necessitating comprehensive policies to support childbearing and reduce the burden of child-rearing [18]. - The phenomenon of "aging before becoming rich" poses challenges for total demand and the social security system, as the elderly population's consumption capacity may be weaker than that of developed economies [20]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts of Population Structure Changes - The aging population is expected to exert downward pressure on potential growth rates due to a shrinking labor force, with China's labor force participation rate declining from a peak of 74.5% in 2010 to 68.3% by 2024 [31][34]. - The aging process can lead to a negative output gap, as seen in Japan, where actual economic growth has consistently lagged behind potential growth due to demographic shifts [36]. - Population aging is associated with a shift in consumption patterns, increasing demand for services such as healthcare and elder care, which may enhance service consumption's share of total consumption [39]. Group 4: Strategies to Address Aging Challenges - Improving labor productivity is crucial to counter the negative impacts of an aging population, with technology playing a key role in enhancing productivity through automation and innovation [46][51]. - Increasing labor participation rates, particularly among women, and extending working hours can help mitigate the labor supply challenges posed by an aging population [57]. - Expanding overseas operations and attracting foreign labor can serve as effective strategies to address domestic labor shortages and enhance productivity [59][60].

Demographic Trends - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and above will account for 10.2%, indicating a shift to a mildly aging society, with projections of 13.1% by 2035[2][15]. - China will officially enter a moderately aging society by 2024, with 15.6% of its population aged 65 and above, and is expected to reach 22.8% by 2035[3][25]. Challenges Faced by China - China is experiencing accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to reach 15.6% in 2024, nearing Japan's 1997 aging level[3][32]. - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.0 in 2023, one of the lowest among major economies, indicating a severe challenge of low birth rates[3][28]. Economic Implications - The aging population will lead to a decline in the labor force, exerting downward pressure on potential growth rates, which are expected to drop to around 5.0% by 2026-2030 and further to 4.5% by 2031-2035[4][61]. - Japan's experience shows that after crossing two demographic turning points, the economy faced persistent negative output gaps, with 69% of the quarters from 1993 to 2024 recording negative growth gaps[4][68]. Inflation Dynamics - Aging populations typically exert inflationary pressures; however, many developed economies have experienced deflationary trends due to mismatched supply and demand shocks[5][74]. - In China, the short-term impact of aging may suppress inflation, but long-term effects could lead to upward inflationary pressures as labor supply contracts[5][80]. Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges of an aging population, increasing labor productivity is crucial, which can be achieved through technological advancements, raising labor participation rates, and attracting foreign labor[6][81]. - China should focus on enhancing its social security system to manage the economic impacts of an aging population effectively[6][32].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis with a record low birth rate of 1.15 in 2024, leading to concerns about the future of the nation and its workforce [3][6][8]. Group 1: Birth Rate Statistics - The number of newborns in Japan for 2024 is projected to be approximately 686,000, which is significantly lower than previous estimates that predicted this milestone would not be reached until 2039 [3][6]. - Japan's fertility rate is the lowest among East Asian countries, with South Korea at 0.78, China at 1.18, and Japan at 1.26 according to World Bank data from 2022 [8][10]. Group 2: Societal Impacts - The low birth rate directly contributes to an aging population and a shrinking workforce, which poses challenges for economic stability and social services [10][22]. - The phenomenon of "one-person economy" is rising in Japan, with individuals increasingly choosing to live alone and prioritize personal enjoyment over traditional family structures [14][16]. Group 3: Government Response - Japan's government has been attempting to address the declining birth rate since the 1990s, implementing various policies such as the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, which aimed to create a supportive environment for child-rearing [21][22]. - Despite significant investments in these initiatives, the birth rate continues to decline, leading to the term "low birthrate and aging society" being coined to describe the current situation [22][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture, including the introduction of a four-day workweek [35][36]. - The government is also considering the introduction of foreign labor to mitigate workforce shortages, as there is a growing acceptance of foreign workers in various sectors [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's birth rate has fallen below 700,000, reaching this milestone 15 years earlier than previously expected, raising concerns about the country's demographic future [3][5]. Demographic Trends - To maintain population stability, a birth rate of 2.1 is necessary, but Japan's current rate is only 1.26, with China at 1.18 and South Korea at 0.78, indicating a significant decline in East Asia [4][5]. - Japan's total population is less than one-tenth of China's, with only 700,000 newborns annually, highlighting the severity of the situation [9]. Historical Context - Japan has been aware of its declining birth rate since around 1990, with no significant recovery since then [10][11]. - The population structure has shifted since 2005, with the death rate exceeding the birth rate, leading to an aging population that now constitutes 27% of the total [27][28]. Government Response - The Japanese government has implemented various policies since the 1990s, including the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, aimed at encouraging childbirth and supporting families [23][25]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these policies has been questioned, as the birth rate continues to decline [26]. Societal Changes - There is a growing trend of individuals choosing not to have children, with 33.4% of women and an increasing number of men opting for lifelong singlehood [32][33]. - The rise of "one-person economies" reflects a societal shift where individuals find fulfillment in single lifestyles rather than traditional family structures [15][17]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture [41][47]. - The introduction of foreign labor could help mitigate workforce shortages, as Japan remains relatively open to foreign workers despite limited immigration policies [45][46]. Conclusion - Japan faces a critical demographic challenge with low birth rates and an aging population, prompting a reevaluation of societal norms and government strategies to address these issues [42][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue, emphasizing the need for systematic support measures to encourage childbirth [1]. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare support, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD data indicates that timely introduction of financial support and parental leave can significantly impact total fertility rates and employment among women of childbearing age [31][43]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their fertility rates through comprehensive support systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to delayed and insufficient policy measures [43][60]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, partly due to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age and a trend towards later marriages and childbirth [3][67]. - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67]. - The increasing flow of population, influenced by the household registration system and public service disparities, has also contributed to a decline in birth intentions among the mobile population [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with cities like Hohhot offering substantial financial support for families with children [5]. - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5]. - Beyond cash subsidies, a comprehensive support system addressing employment, education, and healthcare is essential for improving birth rates [5][96].