Core Viewpoint - South Korea is facing a severe low birth rate crisis, with a total fertility rate dropping to 0.72 in 2023, but there are signs of a slight rebound in 2024 and 2025, raising questions about the effectiveness of government policies aimed at increasing birth rates [6][8][23]. Group 1: Current Birth Rate Situation - East Asia, particularly South Korea, is experiencing the lowest birth rates globally, with South Korea's total fertility rate falling below 1.5 since 2015, reaching 0.72 in 2023 [6]. - In 2024, the total fertility rate is projected to increase to 0.75, with a further rise to 0.82 in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a potential recovery [8]. - Comparatively, Shanghai's birth rate is even lower, at 0.6 in 2023, and only rebounding to 0.72 in 2024, highlighting a broader regional issue [8]. Group 2: Government Initiatives to Stimulate Birth Rates - The South Korean government has implemented extensive financial support measures, including marriage subsidies that can reach up to 2 million KRW (approximately 10,000 RMB) and various child-rearing allowances [12]. - Families can receive up to 12 million KRW (approximately 62,000 RMB) in parental subsidies during the first year of a child's life, with additional support for subsequent years [12][13]. - For families using daycare services, monthly subsidies are provided, with amounts varying by age, such as 540,000 KRW (approximately 2,770 RMB) for infants [13][14]. Group 3: Additional Support Measures - Tax incentives are offered for families with multiple children, including personal income tax credits and education expense deductions [16]. - The government is also modifying labor laws to extend paid paternity leave and increase childcare leave benefits, aiming to create a more family-friendly work environment [16]. - Private companies, like the real estate giant Furong Group, are also contributing by offering substantial bonuses for employees who have children, further incentivizing childbirth [16][18]. Group 4: Societal Factors Influencing Birth Rates - The recent increase in birth rates is attributed to a rise in marriage rates post-pandemic and an increase in the population of women in their 30s, who are more likely to have children [23][24]. - Historical trends show that South Korea has experienced "baby booms" in the past, and the current demographic shift may lead to another increase in birth rates as younger generations reach childbearing age [26]. - However, the overall population structure remains concerning, with a significant decline in the youth population, which could lead to future declines in birth rates [26][28]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the recent uptick in birth rates, experts caution that this may be a temporary fluctuation rather than a sustained trend, as deeper societal issues persist [23][31]. - The South Korean government faces challenges in addressing long-standing issues such as high living costs, gender inequality, and a competitive job market, which continue to deter young couples from having children [31]. - Proposals for long-term solutions include creating a more inclusive society that offers stable employment, affordable housing, and equitable opportunities for all, rather than relying solely on financial incentives [31].

Core Points - The article discusses the low fertility rates in East Asia, particularly highlighting South Korea's situation, where the total fertility rate dropped to 0.72 in 2023, indicating a deep "low fertility trap" [5][7][11] - Despite the alarming figures, South Korea's fertility rate showed a slight rebound in 2024, reaching 0.75, with a 3.6% increase in newborns compared to 2023 [11][12][13] - The article compares South Korea's fertility rate with Shanghai, which recorded a total fertility rate of 0.6 in 2023, lower than South Korea's [13][14] Fertility Rate Trends - South Korea's total fertility rate has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since 2015, with a significant decline observed over the years [6][10] - The fertility rate in South Korea is significantly lower than that of other countries, with Japan and China also falling below the 1.5 threshold [8][10] - The article notes that the recent increase in fertility rates may be influenced by a rise in marriage rates and the demographic shift of more women in their 30s [36][38] Government Initiatives - The South Korean government has implemented various financial incentives to encourage childbirth, including marriage subsidies and child-rearing allowances [16][17][18] - Families can receive substantial financial support, such as 12 million KRW (approximately 62,000 RMB) in the first year for newborns, and monthly allowances for children aged 2 to 7 [18][19][22] - The government is also expanding childcare subsidies and plans to provide free education and care for children aged 3 to 5 by 2027 [23][25] Societal Factors - The article highlights that despite financial incentives, deeper societal issues such as gender inequality, high living costs, and a competitive job market continue to suppress birth rates [46][55] - The demographic structure in South Korea is concerning, with a significant decline in the youth population, which may lead to further decreases in fertility rates in the future [42][44] - The article suggests that while financial support is crucial, a more comprehensive approach addressing societal challenges is necessary to sustainably increase birth rates [54][55]

Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining output growth in the face of accelerating population aging is to improve labor productivity through technological advancement, increasing labor participation rates, and expanding overseas operations [2]. Group 1: Global Population Trends - The global population is transitioning through four stages of demographic transformation, with most countries having completed industrialization or being in its middle stages, leading to a decline in the demographic dividend and an increase in aging and low birth rates [5][10]. - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 10.2%, with this figure expected to rise to 13.1% by 2035, indicating a shift towards moderate aging societies [10]. - The total fertility rate globally has decreased from a peak of 5.32 in the 1960s to 2.25 in 2024, nearing the replacement level of 2.1, with developed economies facing significant challenges related to low birth rates [11]. Group 2: China's Population Challenges - China is entering a phase of accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older expected to reach 15.6% by 2024, transitioning to a moderately aged society [16]. - The total fertility rate in China has fallen below the replacement level since 1991, reaching 1.0 in 2023, necessitating comprehensive policies to support childbearing and reduce the burden of child-rearing [18]. - The phenomenon of "aging before becoming rich" poses challenges for total demand and the social security system, as the elderly population's consumption capacity may be weaker than that of developed economies [20]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts of Population Structure Changes - The aging population is expected to exert downward pressure on potential growth rates due to a shrinking labor force, with China's labor force participation rate declining from a peak of 74.5% in 2010 to 68.3% by 2024 [31][34]. - The aging process can lead to a negative output gap, as seen in Japan, where actual economic growth has consistently lagged behind potential growth due to demographic shifts [36]. - Population aging is associated with a shift in consumption patterns, increasing demand for services such as healthcare and elder care, which may enhance service consumption's share of total consumption [39]. Group 4: Strategies to Address Aging Challenges - Improving labor productivity is crucial to counter the negative impacts of an aging population, with technology playing a key role in enhancing productivity through automation and innovation [46][51]. - Increasing labor participation rates, particularly among women, and extending working hours can help mitigate the labor supply challenges posed by an aging population [57]. - Expanding overseas operations and attracting foreign labor can serve as effective strategies to address domestic labor shortages and enhance productivity [59][60].

Demographic Trends - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and above will account for 10.2%, indicating a shift to a mildly aging society, with projections of 13.1% by 2035[2][15]. - China will officially enter a moderately aging society by 2024, with 15.6% of its population aged 65 and above, and is expected to reach 22.8% by 2035[3][25]. Challenges Faced by China - China is experiencing accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to reach 15.6% in 2024, nearing Japan's 1997 aging level[3][32]. - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.0 in 2023, one of the lowest among major economies, indicating a severe challenge of low birth rates[3][28]. Economic Implications - The aging population will lead to a decline in the labor force, exerting downward pressure on potential growth rates, which are expected to drop to around 5.0% by 2026-2030 and further to 4.5% by 2031-2035[4][61]. - Japan's experience shows that after crossing two demographic turning points, the economy faced persistent negative output gaps, with 69% of the quarters from 1993 to 2024 recording negative growth gaps[4][68]. Inflation Dynamics - Aging populations typically exert inflationary pressures; however, many developed economies have experienced deflationary trends due to mismatched supply and demand shocks[5][74]. - In China, the short-term impact of aging may suppress inflation, but long-term effects could lead to upward inflationary pressures as labor supply contracts[5][80]. Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges of an aging population, increasing labor productivity is crucial, which can be achieved through technological advancements, raising labor participation rates, and attracting foreign labor[6][81]. - China should focus on enhancing its social security system to manage the economic impacts of an aging population effectively[6][32].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis with a record low birth rate of 1.15 in 2024, leading to concerns about the future of the nation and its workforce [3][6][8]. Group 1: Birth Rate Statistics - The number of newborns in Japan for 2024 is projected to be approximately 686,000, which is significantly lower than previous estimates that predicted this milestone would not be reached until 2039 [3][6]. - Japan's fertility rate is the lowest among East Asian countries, with South Korea at 0.78, China at 1.18, and Japan at 1.26 according to World Bank data from 2022 [8][10]. Group 2: Societal Impacts - The low birth rate directly contributes to an aging population and a shrinking workforce, which poses challenges for economic stability and social services [10][22]. - The phenomenon of "one-person economy" is rising in Japan, with individuals increasingly choosing to live alone and prioritize personal enjoyment over traditional family structures [14][16]. Group 3: Government Response - Japan's government has been attempting to address the declining birth rate since the 1990s, implementing various policies such as the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, which aimed to create a supportive environment for child-rearing [21][22]. - Despite significant investments in these initiatives, the birth rate continues to decline, leading to the term "low birthrate and aging society" being coined to describe the current situation [22][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture, including the introduction of a four-day workweek [35][36]. - The government is also considering the introduction of foreign labor to mitigate workforce shortages, as there is a growing acceptance of foreign workers in various sectors [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's birth rate has fallen below 700,000, reaching this milestone 15 years earlier than previously expected, raising concerns about the country's demographic future [3][5]. Demographic Trends - To maintain population stability, a birth rate of 2.1 is necessary, but Japan's current rate is only 1.26, with China at 1.18 and South Korea at 0.78, indicating a significant decline in East Asia [4][5]. - Japan's total population is less than one-tenth of China's, with only 700,000 newborns annually, highlighting the severity of the situation [9]. Historical Context - Japan has been aware of its declining birth rate since around 1990, with no significant recovery since then [10][11]. - The population structure has shifted since 2005, with the death rate exceeding the birth rate, leading to an aging population that now constitutes 27% of the total [27][28]. Government Response - The Japanese government has implemented various policies since the 1990s, including the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, aimed at encouraging childbirth and supporting families [23][25]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these policies has been questioned, as the birth rate continues to decline [26]. Societal Changes - There is a growing trend of individuals choosing not to have children, with 33.4% of women and an increasing number of men opting for lifelong singlehood [32][33]. - The rise of "one-person economies" reflects a societal shift where individuals find fulfillment in single lifestyles rather than traditional family structures [15][17]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture [41][47]. - The introduction of foreign labor could help mitigate workforce shortages, as Japan remains relatively open to foreign workers despite limited immigration policies [45][46]. Conclusion - Japan faces a critical demographic challenge with low birth rates and an aging population, prompting a reevaluation of societal norms and government strategies to address these issues [42][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue, emphasizing the need for systematic support measures to encourage childbirth [1]. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare support, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD data indicates that timely introduction of financial support and parental leave can significantly impact total fertility rates and employment among women of childbearing age [31][43]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their fertility rates through comprehensive support systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to delayed and insufficient policy measures [43][60]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, partly due to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age and a trend towards later marriages and childbirth [3][67]. - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67]. - The increasing flow of population, influenced by the household registration system and public service disparities, has also contributed to a decline in birth intentions among the mobile population [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with cities like Hohhot offering substantial financial support for families with children [5]. - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5]. - Beyond cash subsidies, a comprehensive support system addressing employment, education, and healthcare is essential for improving birth rates [5][96].