传统宏观研究范式下，人口通常被视为"慢变量"。但"十五五"时期，我国人口老龄化将进入加速阶段，当人口周期 从"缓坡"走向"陡崖"，将会对宏观经济和政策产生显著影响，人口"灰犀牛"的影响将愈发不可忽视。 从全球人口趋势变化看，人口红利正在消失，老龄化趋势难以逆转。2024 年全球 65 岁及以上人口占比已经达到 10.2%， 按照国际通用的人口老龄化程度划分标准，目前全球已经步入轻度老龄化社会，而主要发达经济体均已处于中度或重 度老龄化社会。此外，全球总和生育率已下降至世代更替水平附近，发达经济体更是面临落入"低生育率陷阱"的风 险。 从人口转型的角度看，当前中国主要面临三个挑战：一是我国已进入加速老龄化时期，人口转型时间更短。根据联合 国《世界人口展望 2024》，中国 2032 年将正式步入重度老龄化社会，到 2035 年 65 岁以上人口占比将达到 22.8%。二 是少子化问题较为严峻。我国 2023 年我国总和生育率已降至 1.0 人，在全球主要经济体中仅略高于韩国。三是未富 先老将给总需求和社会保障体系带来压力。2024 年我国 65 岁以上人口达到 15.6%，接近日本 1997 年的老龄化水平， ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis with a record low birth rate of 1.15 in 2024, leading to concerns about the future of the nation and its workforce [3][6][8]. Group 1: Birth Rate Statistics - The number of newborns in Japan for 2024 is projected to be approximately 686,000, which is significantly lower than previous estimates that predicted this milestone would not be reached until 2039 [3][6]. - Japan's fertility rate is the lowest among East Asian countries, with South Korea at 0.78, China at 1.18, and Japan at 1.26 according to World Bank data from 2022 [8][10]. Group 2: Societal Impacts - The low birth rate directly contributes to an aging population and a shrinking workforce, which poses challenges for economic stability and social services [10][22]. - The phenomenon of "one-person economy" is rising in Japan, with individuals increasingly choosing to live alone and prioritize personal enjoyment over traditional family structures [14][16]. Group 3: Government Response - Japan's government has been attempting to address the declining birth rate since the 1990s, implementing various policies such as the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, which aimed to create a supportive environment for child-rearing [21][22]. - Despite significant investments in these initiatives, the birth rate continues to decline, leading to the term "low birthrate and aging society" being coined to describe the current situation [22][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture, including the introduction of a four-day workweek [35][36]. - The government is also considering the introduction of foreign labor to mitigate workforce shortages, as there is a growing acceptance of foreign workers in various sectors [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's birth rate has fallen below 700,000, reaching this milestone 15 years earlier than previously expected, raising concerns about the country's demographic future [3][5]. Demographic Trends - To maintain population stability, a birth rate of 2.1 is necessary, but Japan's current rate is only 1.26, with China at 1.18 and South Korea at 0.78, indicating a significant decline in East Asia [4][5]. - Japan's total population is less than one-tenth of China's, with only 700,000 newborns annually, highlighting the severity of the situation [9]. Historical Context - Japan has been aware of its declining birth rate since around 1990, with no significant recovery since then [10][11]. - The population structure has shifted since 2005, with the death rate exceeding the birth rate, leading to an aging population that now constitutes 27% of the total [27][28]. Government Response - The Japanese government has implemented various policies since the 1990s, including the "Angel Plan" in 1994 and the "Basic Law on Measures for a Declining Birthrate" in 2003, aimed at encouraging childbirth and supporting families [23][25]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these policies has been questioned, as the birth rate continues to decline [26]. Societal Changes - There is a growing trend of individuals choosing not to have children, with 33.4% of women and an increasing number of men opting for lifelong singlehood [32][33]. - The rise of "one-person economies" reflects a societal shift where individuals find fulfillment in single lifestyles rather than traditional family structures [15][17]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Japan may need to adapt its perspective on population decline, focusing on the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as higher employment rates and changes in work culture [41][47]. - The introduction of foreign labor could help mitigate workforce shortages, as Japan remains relatively open to foreign workers despite limited immigration policies [45][46]. Conclusion - Japan faces a critical demographic challenge with low birth rates and an aging population, prompting a reevaluation of societal norms and government strategies to address these issues [42][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue, emphasizing the need for systematic support measures to encourage childbirth [1]. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare support, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD data indicates that timely introduction of financial support and parental leave can significantly impact total fertility rates and employment among women of childbearing age [31][43]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their fertility rates through comprehensive support systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to delayed and insufficient policy measures [43][60]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, partly due to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age and a trend towards later marriages and childbirth [3][67]. - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67]. - The increasing flow of population, influenced by the household registration system and public service disparities, has also contributed to a decline in birth intentions among the mobile population [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with cities like Hohhot offering substantial financial support for families with children [5]. - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5]. - Beyond cash subsidies, a comprehensive support system addressing employment, education, and healthcare is essential for improving birth rates [5][96].