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中国人民银行第二季度调查_ 贷款需求下降、出口订单减少及就业信心减弱-China_ PBOC Q2 Surveys_ Lower loan demand, falling export orders, and weaker employment sentiment
2025-07-29 02:31
Summary of PBOC Q2 Surveys Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking and economic conditions in China as assessed by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) through its Q2 2025 surveys of bank loan officers, enterprises, and urban depositors [1][3]. Key Findings Loan Demand and Banking Conditions - Loan demand fell significantly in Q2 2025, with the index dropping to 56.1 from 58.5 in Q1 2025 [7] - Loan approval rates also decreased, with the index falling to 53.8 from 54.4 in Q1 2025, indicating tighter lending standards [7][13] - Bankers reported declining banking profits and anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy in the upcoming quarter [13] Business Conditions - The business conditions index for 5,000 surveyed enterprises remained unchanged at 49.2 in Q2 2025, indicating stagnant business sentiment [2][13] - Export orders saw a notable decline, with the index dropping to 42.1 in Q2 2025 from 46.8 in Q4 2024, while domestic orders remained stable [13] Urban Depositor Sentiment - Urban depositors expressed lower inflation expectations and a decline in current employment sentiment in Q2 2025 [13] - The net share of depositors expecting rising property prices decreased to -13.7% from -13.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the property market [13] - The willingness to consume also fell, with only 22.6% of households indicating a desire to increase consumption, down from 24.1% in Q1 2025 [7][13] Additional Insights - The survey indicates ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy, as evidenced by the decline in raw materials purchasing price index and sales price index [13] - Households reported an increased willingness to save, rising from 62.6% to 64.3%, while the share wanting to invest slightly decreased [13] Conclusion - The PBOC's Q2 2025 surveys highlight a concerning trend in loan demand, business conditions, and consumer sentiment, suggesting potential challenges for the Chinese economy moving forward [1][13].