纽约联邦储备银行发布的月度调查显示，12月美国通胀预期上升，消费者对就业机会的信心降至至少12 年半以来最低。 周四公布的报告称，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。消费者认为如果失去现有 工作、能够找到新工作的概率只有43.1%，为该调查自2013年年中启动以来的纪录最低水平。 纽约联邦储备银行发布的月度调查显示，12月美国通胀预期上升，消费者对就业机会的信心降至至少12 年半以来最低。 周四公布的报告称，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。消费者认为如果失去现有 工作、能够找到新工作的概率只有43.1%，为该调查自2013年年中启动以来的纪录最低水平。 这些数据凸显了美联储官员内部的分歧：一部分人更担心通胀，另一部分则认为失业率上升是更大的风 险。这种分歧可能会使美联储在本月晚些时候的下一次政策会议上按兵不动，不调整利率。 市场正等待劳工统计局周五将发布的月度就业数据，以及1月13日公布的消费者价格数据。 纽约联储调查还显示，消费者预计未来三个月无法按时偿还最低债务金额的概率升至15.3%，为2020年 4月以来最高水平。与此同时，认为未来一年自身财务状况将改善 ...

Summary of PBOC Q2 Surveys Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking and economic conditions in China as assessed by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) through its Q2 2025 surveys of bank loan officers, enterprises, and urban depositors [1][3]. Key Findings Loan Demand and Banking Conditions - Loan demand fell significantly in Q2 2025, with the index dropping to 56.1 from 58.5 in Q1 2025 [7] - Loan approval rates also decreased, with the index falling to 53.8 from 54.4 in Q1 2025, indicating tighter lending standards [7][13] - Bankers reported declining banking profits and anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy in the upcoming quarter [13] Business Conditions - The business conditions index for 5,000 surveyed enterprises remained unchanged at 49.2 in Q2 2025, indicating stagnant business sentiment [2][13] - Export orders saw a notable decline, with the index dropping to 42.1 in Q2 2025 from 46.8 in Q4 2024, while domestic orders remained stable [13] Urban Depositor Sentiment - Urban depositors expressed lower inflation expectations and a decline in current employment sentiment in Q2 2025 [13] - The net share of depositors expecting rising property prices decreased to -13.7% from -13.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the property market [13] - The willingness to consume also fell, with only 22.6% of households indicating a desire to increase consumption, down from 24.1% in Q1 2025 [7][13] Additional Insights - The survey indicates ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy, as evidenced by the decline in raw materials purchasing price index and sales price index [13] - Households reported an increased willingness to save, rising from 62.6% to 64.3%, while the share wanting to invest slightly decreased [13] Conclusion - The PBOC's Q2 2025 surveys highlight a concerning trend in loan demand, business conditions, and consumer sentiment, suggesting potential challenges for the Chinese economy moving forward [1][13].