就业市场紧平衡
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美国2025年11月非农数据:美国就业市场“紧平衡”脆弱性显现
Donghai Securities· 2025-12-17 08:45
Employment Data Summary - In November 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, surpassing the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest level since October 2021[2] - The U6 unemployment rate jumped from 8.0% to 8.7%, marking the highest level since August 2021[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The total number of re-employed individuals surged by 293,000 over October and November, contributing 129% to the increase in unemployment[2] - Immigration labor supply turned positive, with a net increase of 132,000 over the two months, while domestic labor supply also rose by 118,000[3] - Despite the increase in labor supply, corporate hiring decreased, with a drop of 218,000 in October[3] Sector Performance - The production sector saw a positive employment change in November, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily driven by construction, which contributed 28,000 jobs[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs in November, down from 61,000 in October, largely due to a decline in transportation jobs[2] - Government employment remained stable in November after significant cuts in October due to a government shutdown[2] Wage Trends - Hourly wage growth slowed in November, with private sector wages increasing by only 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in October[2] - The construction sector maintained a steady wage growth rate of 0.2%, indicating a recovery trend[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock markets opened lower but showed slight recovery, while bond yields and the dollar experienced minor declines[3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in January 2026 rose to 25.5%, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates due to stable economic growth[3]