分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 2025年8月25日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 部 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 核心观点 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 最近，资本市场继续高歌猛进，风险偏好乐观亢奋，降息交易总体主导市场，风险资产多数收涨，波动率VIX指数大跌在 历史低位运行。海外，通胀的强韧与美联储官员的动荡，鲍威尔的言论不断扰动着降息预期，9月降息几乎板上钉钉，市场开 始关注后续降息的幅度和速度。全球主要股市多数收涨，美股再创历史新高，A股强劲上扬突破3800创出10年新高，BDI指数明 显下挫，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币整体受益，大宗商品走势分化，油价反弹支撑能源板块并带动国际定价商 品表现相对偏强，CRB周度收涨，黄金与铜联袂走高；国内，"反内卷"行情有所降温，基 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-08-25 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 5984.59 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5984.59 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 48% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注稀土磁材投资机会》 - 2025.08.18 有色金属行业报告 （2025.08.18-2 ...

中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 (1) 美国市场焦点 预计美联储年内将 连续降息三次 股票 "降息交易" 主线重新明确； Mobileye；Klaviyo ETF Invesco标普500等权重 房地产ETF (2) 欧洲市场焦点 俄乌和平之路 并不容易 按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年8月25日 每周投资策略 (3) 菲律宾市场焦点 二季度GDP超预期， 降息有望延续增长势头 股票 受益于区域资金流入 ETF iShares MSCI菲律宾 ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 鲍威尔鸽派发言推动全球股市周五大幅拉升 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价* | 1周变动 | 1个月变动 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

申万宏源证券（000562）发布研究报告称，8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会 上发表了题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演讲。相比7月FOMC例会，鲍威尔的政策基调转向"中性偏 鸽"。鲍威尔的演讲导致"降息交易"明显升温，联邦基金利率期货隐含的9月降息预期由72%一度升至 94%。2025年下半年是"关税验证期"，基准场景是：失业率升至4.4-4.5%区间，年内降息2次。9月降息 预期能否落地的关键不在于鲍威尔的表态，而在于9月5日的非农报告和9月11日的通胀数据；第2次降息 预期落地的充分条件或是失业率升至4.4%以上。 (一)宏观经济与货币政策立场：滞胀风险并存，基于风险平衡相机抉择 2025年"声明"是对过去一段时间美联储货币政策策略的"事后确认"。2020年"声明"修订的宏观背景是： 基于水平的"菲利普斯曲线"，双重使命是互补的，美联储可以兼顾通胀和就业目标。但当下和未来，美 国正面临"滞胀"难题，美联储不得不在双重目标之间取得平衡。 (三)美联储降息的"预期差"及其调整风险：9月降息，然后呢? 鲍威尔的演讲导致"降息交易"明显升温。联邦基金利率期货隐含的9月降息预期由 ...

格隆汇8月24日｜中信证券研报认为，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发言与我们此前预期相符，预计美联 储年内将连续降息三次，每次25bps。资产方面，我们认为美股市场"降息交易"的主线将重新明确，"补 涨"的交易逻辑将主导接下来的美股市场，类似于2024年7月"降息交易"中对利率敏感的罗素2000、标普 500房地产和纳指生物技术上涨的行情或将再度上演。市场对美联储年内降息预期与我们的观点仍有一 定距离，我们预计美债利率和美元指数仍有小幅下行空间。非美权益方面，鲍威尔鸽派发言和较弱美元 预计能提振全球权益市场风险偏好。黄金方面，降息预期提振利好金价，但需警惕俄乌可能达成协议带 来的利空。 ...

中信证券研报认为，鲍威尔在Jackson Hole央行峰会上发言与我们此前预期相符，强调就业市场下行风 险，延续7月议息会议中"关税通胀是一次性的"观点，为9月降息做铺垫。我们延续此前观点，预计美联 储年内将连续降息三次，每次25bps。关于货币政策框架调整，美联储放弃平均通胀目标制，回归灵活 通胀目标制，且修改措辞强调关注"双向"就业市场风险。资产方面，我们认为鲍威尔鸽派发言后，美股 市场"降息交易"的主线重新明确，"补涨"的交易逻辑将主导接下来的美股市场。我们延续此前观点，认 为类似于2024年7月"降息交易"中对利率敏感的罗素2000、标普500房地产和纳指生物技术上涨的行情或 将再度上演。美元指数和美债利率方面，市场对美联储年内降息预期（2次）与我们的观点（3次）仍有 一定距离，我们预计美债利率和美元指数仍有小幅下行空间。非美权益方面，鲍威尔鸽派发言和较弱美 元预计能提振全球权益市场风险偏好。黄金方面，降息预期提振利好金价，但需警惕俄乌可能达成协议 带来的利空。 ...

Fixed Income - Economic pressure is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with a focus on the bond market as a favorable investment opportunity. The current economic recovery is influenced by price adjustments, and the "anti-involution" policy has become a priority. The overall CPI and PPI improvements were below expectations in July, indicating a potential shift in economic growth momentum and income distribution structure [2][7][10] - The 10Y government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8% in the second half of the year, with current yields around 1.75%, presenting a favorable price-performance ratio. The report suggests a bullish outlook on long-duration municipal and capital bonds, as well as specific bank perpetual bonds [10][14] Nutritional Functional Food Industry - The nutritional functional food market in China is rapidly developing, with a market size projected to grow from CNY 233.1 billion in 2024 to CNY 349.9 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5%. The overall market for nutritional health foods is expected to reach CNY 522.3 billion in 2024 and CNY 720.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.6% [16][17] - Key players in the nutritional functional food sector include Kangbiter (brand operator), Wuxi Jinghai (raw material supplier), and Hengmei Health (contract manufacturer), indicating a well-structured industry chain [17] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7%. Companies such as Sino Medical, Innovation Medical, and Guangsheng Tang saw significant stock price increases, indicating a broadening market trend in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - The report highlights the potential of tri-antibody therapies in cancer immunotherapy, with specific attention on Shanghai Yizhong's YXC-001 and other combinations, suggesting a promising future for these treatments [28][29] Metals and New Materials - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, driven by improved export volumes. The price of tungsten concentrate has also surpassed CNY 200,000 per ton due to supply constraints and rising demand [21][22] - The report notes that the controlled nuclear fusion industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant opportunities for upstream materials suppliers [24] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) is expected to rise, particularly in data center applications, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally. The report emphasizes the importance of companies that supply upstream equipment and materials for SOFC [20][21] - Shaan Energy's new project in Guangdong aims to integrate power generation and data center operations, which is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects in the context of increasing green energy demand [5][6]

Economic Indicators - The US July PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%[3] - The CME model indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the recent PPI data[3] Market Reactions - The US-Russia talks have not reached a significant agreement, with limited market impact expected; historical context suggests that a ceasefire typically requires one side to have a decisive advantage[3] - Oil prices (both WTI and Brent) experienced a decline following the talks, reflecting the market's muted response[3] Investment Strategies - Focus on the interest rate cut trade, with potential for further pricing in as the Fed's internal divisions remain[3] - Consider small-cap growth stocks like XBI under the interest rate cut theme, and stocks with improved fundamentals such as UnitedHealth, which was heavily bought by Berkshire Hathaway in Q2[3] Risks - Potential for overseas inflation to rebound beyond expectations, which could lead to tighter liquidity from central banks and impact equity market valuations[3] - Global economic slowdown risks, particularly if the US economy shows signs of weakening, could negatively affect market conditions[3] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East or Ukraine, could heighten market volatility and risk aversion[3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.83% to 3,696 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing 1.6%, reaching a new high for the year[18] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both fell by 0.98%, primarily dragged down by technology and banking stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% to 44,946 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.29% and 0.40%, respectively[11] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in July increased by 0.5%, with June's growth revised up to 0.9%[30] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly dropped from 62 to 58.6, indicating concerns over inflation[30] - China's July retail sales growth slowed, influenced by extreme weather and a decline in manufacturing and real estate investment[6] Commodity and Forex Market - International oil prices fell over 1%, with NYMEX crude oil down 1.8% to $62.8 per barrel[28] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.8%[27] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, rising 0.5% to 1.170, with a year-to-date increase of 13.0%[27] Fixed Income Market - Long-term European government bonds saw significant declines, with Germany's 30-year bond yield rising 8 basis points to 3.35%, the highest since 2011[30] - U.S. Treasury yields also increased, with the 10-year yield up 3 basis points to 4.32%[30] - The market anticipates a 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September[30]