证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 方皓 SAC：S1350525110003 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税不确定性与美伊紧张局势共振，贵金属表现强势 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2026/02/16-2026/03/01） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：黄金白银价格快速上涨。近两周，伦敦现货黄金上涨 4.55%至 5222.30 美元/盎司，上期所黄金上涨 3.41%至 1147.90 元/克，沪金持仓量上涨 0.67%至 30.23 万手；伦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that gold and silver prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with a long-term outlook suggesting that the "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze price movements, supported by central bank gold purchases amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [1][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices have risen by 8.04% to $4981.85 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 13.65% to $103.19 per ounce over the past two weeks [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gold prices rise by 12.51% to 1161.42 yuan per gram, and silver prices surged by 24.28% to 27941 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Palladium prices increased by 3.70% to $1820 per ounce, while platinum prices slightly decreased by 0.04% to $2300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold and Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with a 10 to 2 vote, indicating a stable economic expansion in the U.S. and a focus on both inflation and employment risks [3]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a potential influence on future interest rate decisions, with discussions around rate cuts expected [3]. - A temporary compromise in Congress has averted a government shutdown, which may impact market stability and investor sentiment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The dual themes of "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices, with significant events to watch in early February, including U.S. employment data and CPI figures [4]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain robust, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that despite recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the long-term logic for precious metals remains intact. The recent price movements are attributed to various factors including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and political developments in the U.S. [4][6] - The report emphasizes that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes will continue to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the medium term. It suggests that investors should look for phase-specific allocation opportunities [6] - Long-term expectations are that the combination of "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" will catalyze further price increases for gold, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical factors [6] Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, as of January 30, 2026, London spot gold increased by 8.04% to $4,981.85 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 12.51% to ¥1,161.42 per gram. The holding volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 5.88% to 326,700 contracts [11] - London spot silver rose by 13.65% to $103.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 24.28% to ¥27,941 per kilogram, with Shanghai silver holding volume down by 8.54% to 657,700 contracts [11] - The report notes that palladium prices increased by 3.70% to $1,820 per ounce, while platinum prices slightly decreased by 0.04% to $2,300 per ounce [11] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP employment numbers and unemployment rates, which are expected to influence market sentiment and precious metal prices [6] - The Federal Reserve's current stance is viewed as appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks, which may extend the timeline for potential rate cuts [6] Holding and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into the trading volumes, noting a decrease in holding volumes for both gold and silver in the Shanghai market, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [11] Price Differentials and Futures Basis - The report states that the gold price differential between domestic and international markets has increased, with the current differential at ¥62.04 per gram, up from two weeks prior [61] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) has risen to $74.35 per ounce, indicating a tightening market [63]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver are experiencing significant increases, with gold surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver exceeding $109 per ounce, driven by market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On January 26, the London spot gold price broke the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high and approaching $5100 per ounce during trading [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a potential focus on "rate cut trades," which may enhance market volatility [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The London spot silver also saw a strong performance, with a daily increase of over 5%, surpassing $109 per ounce [1] - The rise in silver prices is occurring concurrently with the surge in gold prices, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The ongoing uncertainties related to Greenland and Iran are contributing to heightened risk aversion, which may support the upward movement of precious metals in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a strong upward trend driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The dual catalysts of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to continue to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a strong bottom support for gold prices [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market and economy may extend the current rate cut cycle, creating a favorable window for gold investments [1] Group 2 - "Trump 2.0" is entering a realization phase, which may lead to further interventions in tariffs and geopolitical matters, potentially lowering the dollar's credibility and increasing inflation, thus pushing gold prices higher [1] - Strategic purchases by central banks and potential new investors are likely to further bolster the positive trend in gold prices [1] - Mid to long-term, gold prices are expected to rise, and investors are advised to consider participating in dips and gradually building positions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that precious metal prices are experiencing a strong upward trend due to increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by geopolitical tensions. The dual catalysts of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the long term [1] - Central banks are anticipated to increase their gold purchases, with China's central bank having added gold for 14 consecutive months, which is expected to provide strong support for gold prices [1] - The potential for new investors, such as Chinese insurance companies and Indian pension funds, may further bolster the positive trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with investors encouraged to consider buying on dips and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are highlighted as potential investment options, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold stocks ETF (517400) rose over 1.6% due to the dual catalysts of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" amid rising geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand [1] - The precious metals sector has seen a strong price increase recently, with central bank accumulation expected to provide robust support for gold prices in the long term [1] - The current rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may be extended due to resilient employment and inflation disturbances, but there remains significant policy space, increasing the window for bullish gold positions [1] Group 2 - "Trump 2.0" is entering a realization phase, which may lead to further interventions in tariffs and geopolitical matters, potentially lowering the dollar's credibility and pushing inflation higher, thus driving gold prices to new highs [1] - Strategic purchases by central banks and potential new investors could further support the positive trend in gold prices [1] - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise, and investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a strong upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, over the past two weeks [1][2] - London spot gold increased by 5.93% to $4611.05 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold rose by 5.60% to ¥1032.32 per gram, with SHFE gold holdings up by 10.39% to 347,100 contracts [1][2] - London spot silver surged by 22.35% to $90.80 per ounce, and SHFE silver climbed by 31.68% to ¥22,483 per kilogram, with SHFE silver holdings increasing by 12.21% to 719,100 contracts [1][2] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors, including weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - The CME's adjustment of margin requirements for precious metal contracts, shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of contract value, may lead to increased market volatility and liquidity tightening [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela, are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the medium term [4] Group 3 - Long-term trends suggest that the combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a strong bottom support [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, indicating a bullish trend for gold [5] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the precious metals sector and recommends a focus on specific stocks, including Zijin Mining International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [6]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has experienced significant price increases, driven by various economic factors and geopolitical events [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - London spot gold rose by 5.93% to $4,611.05 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 5.60% to ¥1,032.32 per gram, with holdings up by 10.39% to 347,100 contracts [1]. - London spot silver surged by 22.35% to $90.80 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver climbed by 31.68% to ¥22,483 per kilogram, with holdings increasing by 12.21% to 719,100 contracts [1]. - Other precious metals also saw gains, with London spot palladium up by 6.95% to $1,755 per ounce and platinum up by 7.93% to $2,301 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting Precious Metals - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December, below the expected 60,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly better than the anticipated 4.5% [1]. - The annual increase in non-farm employment for 2025 was 584,000, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024, marking the weakest growth since 2010-2019, excluding pandemic years [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The CME has adjusted the margin requirements for precious metals contracts, which may lead to increased market volatility and liquidity pressures [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, could further influence market dynamics and investor sentiment towards precious metals [2]. - The "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the medium term, with key upcoming economic indicators to watch [3][4]. - Central banks are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold accumulation [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen strong price increases, with London spot gold rising by 5.93% to $4611.05 per ounce and silver increasing by 22.35% to $90.80 per ounce over the past two weeks [4][9] - The recent price surge is attributed to several factors, including weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts by CME, and geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela [4][5] - The report suggests that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes will continue to support gold prices in the medium term, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, gold prices have increased significantly, with London spot gold up 5.93% and Shanghai gold up 5.60%. Silver prices have surged by 22.35% in London and 31.68% in Shanghai [9][10] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December 2025, below expectations, and the unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4%, indicating a slowdown in job growth [4][5] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report notes an increase in trading volumes, with Shanghai gold positions rising by 10.39% to 347,100 contracts and silver positions increasing by 12.21% to 719,100 contracts [9][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report indicates that the gold price difference between domestic and international markets is -4.33 CNY per gram, while the silver price difference is 2217.87 CNY per kilogram [57] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is $9.95 per ounce, showing a decrease, while the domestic gold basis is -1.23 CNY per gram, indicating an increase [63]