Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market and investor sentiment in the context of geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Consensus on Index Bottom**: The consensus among investors is that the Shanghai Composite Index's bottom is between 3,700 and 3,800 points, aligning with the annual line at approximately 3,740 points, indicating a prevailing "bullish mindset" [1][2]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: Overall investor positions are low, with a stronger inclination among absolute return investors to increase their positions compared to relative return investors [2][3]. 3. **Concerns Affecting Investment Decisions**: Investors express concerns about geopolitical conflicts and potential stagflation or recession, which dampen their willingness to increase positions despite a neutral outlook on the market [3][4]. 4. **Economic Growth Expectations**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.6% and 4.7%, with annual return and profit growth expectations concentrated in the 5% to 10% range [1][3]. 5. **Liquidity and Oil Price Expectations**: The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at least once in 2026, with oil prices expected to stabilize between $90 and $100 per barrel [1][4]. 6. **Investment Style and Focus**: There is a consensus on balanced asset allocation with an emphasis on value, focusing on "new and old energy" sectors, including upstream resources and new manufacturing [5][6]. 7. **Performance Expectations for Q1 2026**: AI computing power, particularly in North America and domestic chains, is viewed as the most certain sector for exceeding performance expectations, along with certain upstream resources and non-ferrous metals [7]. 8. **Investor Sentiment on Hong Kong Market**: Most investors believe that the Hong Kong stock market will struggle to outperform the A-share market in 2026, with a low willingness to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [8]. Additional Important Insights - The survey included over 260 fund managers and researchers from more than 140 domestic core institutions, with a significant representation from public funds and insurance asset management [2]. - Despite concerns about geopolitical risks, the prevailing view is that these factors are short-term disturbances rather than significant threats to the fundamentals [3][4]. - There is a notable expectation of a divergence in performance between sectors perceived as defensive and those expected to exceed earnings forecasts, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic situation shows a mixed picture, with some indicators improving while others facing challenges. The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significant impacts on the global economy, trade, and financial markets. Central banks are implementing various monetary policies to maintain economic stability and promote growth [1][2][13] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong performance in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to international situation changes and crude oil import conditions [21] - The stock market is volatile, with different sectors showing different trends, and the public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [30][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 50.4%, up from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 50.1%, slightly down from the previous month [1] - In February 2026, social financing scale was 23855 billion yuan, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans were 9000 billion yuan. CPI was 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year [1] - In February 2026, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.8%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.8%. Exports and imports in February 2026 increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US, Iran are willing to end the war, but Iran requires guarantees. The Iran - US conflict may cause significant GDP losses in Arab countries, rising unemployment, and increased poverty [2] - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using various tools for monetary policy regulation, and maintaining financial market stability [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Goldman Sachs raised the Q2 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $3450 from $3200. On March 31, domestic tin and copper inventories reached new lows, while aluminum inventory reached a new high [4] - Three Middle - Eastern aluminum plants cut production by about 2.63 million tons. On March 31, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.11% to 1047.28 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - March, the price of rebar increased by 0.83% month - on - month to 3189.1 yuan/ton, the price of coke decreased by 2.08% month - on - month to 1346.4 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 1420.7 yuan/ton [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - US API crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels last week, causing oil prices to fall. Sadara Chemical Company temporarily shut down due to supply chain disruptions. Iran's oil discount has narrowed, and the average selling price has risen. The US Treasury Secretary said the oil market has a daily supply shortage of 10 - 12 million barrels [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - March, the prices of soybean meal, soybeans, and cotton increased by 6.82%, 2.98%, and 2.15% month - on - month respectively, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Important News - The US and Iran are willing to end the war, but there is no formal negotiation yet. Iran listed 18 US ICT and AI - related companies as "legitimate targets" [11][12] - China's economic sentiment improved in March, with manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returning to the expansion range [14] - From January to February, state - owned enterprises' total operating income increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 2% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of February was 65.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year [15] - A number of national regulations will be implemented in April. The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for key - term, short - term, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds in Q2 2026 [15][16] - In February, government bond net financing decreased by 292.53 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate bond net financing decreased by 18.02 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, the bond market custody balance was 198.9 trillion yuan, with foreign institutions holding 3.4 trillion yuan [16] - New special bonds issuance accelerated in Q1 2026, reaching 1.1599 trillion yuan, a 21% increase from the same period in 2025 [17] - The trading association supported 370+ enterprises to issue 1.06 trillion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. New bond indexes will be launched on April 1 [17][18] - Global central banks are selling US Treasury bonds at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The market trading logic has shifted from inflation trading to recession trading [18] - Some bond - related events include bond redemption options, asset transfers, and rating changes [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. Treasury bond futures mostly strengthened. The inter - bank market liquidity was very loose [20][21] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index and related indexes also showed different trends [21][22] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, and the yields of some domestic and foreign bonds also changed [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 49 basis points at the 16:30 close. The US dollar index fell 0.62%, and most non - US currencies rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that accelerating the revitalization of existing assets helps local platforms transform and serve economic growth. The acceleration of government debt clearance for enterprises is expected to repair the balance sheets and valuations of industries such as construction [27][28] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the "South - bound Bond Connect" meets the needs of institutional diversification, and the Hong Kong bond market may expand, providing more choices for global asset allocation [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market declined, with some sectors rising and some falling. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising slightly and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [30][31] - The public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [31] 3.5 Today's Reminder - On April 1, 132 bonds were listed, 120 bonds were issued, 55 bonds were due for payment, and 173 bonds paid principal and interest [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Consider trial long positions. The Iran - US situation is volatile, with many uncontrollable factors. There are still recession trades and liquidity crises, and the main war - participating countries have significant differences. Radical long - term investors can watch for the bottom. [1] - Silver: Mainly on the sidelines. Short - term trading focuses on inflation and stagflation, and silver is under pressure. The fundamental factors are ignored, and the end of the Iran situation is unknown. [1] - Copper: Range - bound. The Middle - East situation may worsen, the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. However, domestic copper social inventory is decreasing, and demand is picking up. In the long - term, the outlook for copper is positive. [1][6] - Zinc: Rebound. The Middle - East situation may deteriorate, overseas smelters may cut production, and zinc inventories at home and abroad are decreasing. [1][9] - Lead: Rebound under pressure. The lead market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with excessive inventory accumulation in the first quarter and poor downstream demand. [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and downstream orders are relatively flat. [1] - Aluminum: Rebound. There is an expectation of tightened bauxite supply overseas, and electrolytic aluminum in the Middle - East may cut production. Domestic inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure. The issue of Indonesian export ore tax continues to cause disruptions, domestic nickel inventory is high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is accumulating due to poor consumption. [1] - Industrial silicon: Pressured to decline. Industry meetings bring anti -内卷 policy expectations, but the supply - demand imbalance restricts price elasticity. [1] - Polysilicon: Decline. In April, polysilicon production resumes, but downstream silicon wafer production is reduced, and the industry is in a state of inventory accumulation. [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation. Total inventory is slightly increasing, and production recovery makes price increases difficult. There are uncertainties in the supply side, and long positions can be closed at high prices. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver showed small fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% to 1014.88, and COMEX gold rose 0.42% to 4540. SHFE silver rose 1.25% to 17707, and COMEX silver rose 0.59% to 70. [2] - **Basic Logic**: The Iran war situation has escalated, and Powell has soothed the market. The core factors suppressing precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the outflow of ETF funds, and concerns about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged. [3] - **Strategy**: Gold should pay attention to the support around 970 in the short - term, and silver should pay attention to the performance around 17000. [3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices showed a range - bound trend. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. LME copper rose 0.44% to 12195 US dollars/ton. [4] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper ore supply is tight, copper concentrate processing fees are - 69 US dollars/ton. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased, but it is expected to increase in March. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect copper smelting. After the sharp decline in copper prices, downstream demand has recovered, and domestic social inventory has decreased. [5] - **Strategy**: Copper will be range - bound, waiting for the Middle - East situation to become clear. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper range is [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper range is [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton. [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.98% to 23650 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose 2.43% to 3182 US dollars/ton. [7] - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Some domestic smelters have cut production, and downstream consumption has improved. The Middle - East situation has affected energy prices, and overseas smelters may cut production. [8] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices will continue to rebound. In the long - term, resource protectionism may affect supply. The Shanghai zinc range is [23000, 24000] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc range is [3100, 3300] US dollars/ton. [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closing price was 3441.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.78%, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 3.30% to 24725 yuan/ton. [10] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. In the Middle - East, short - term supply is disrupted, and new electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up. Domestic aluminum inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. The alumina industry has an oversupply situation, and inventory is high. [12] - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the Shanghai aluminum market, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25500] yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure. The LME nickel closing price was 17350 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.78%, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.01% to 137120 yuan/ton. [14] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. Indonesia may adjust nickel ore production quotas, but the expectation of tightened supply is weakened. Domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless - steel market is in the peak - season transition stage, with inventory slightly increasing. [16] - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the nickel and stainless - steel markets, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract operating range is [125000 - 145000] yuan/ton. [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened higher and maintained a strong operation, rising more than 4%. [19] - **Industry Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and total inventory is slightly increasing. Domestic mica mine mining license issues and overseas lithium ore policies may affect supply. Although new - energy vehicle sales are poor, material production is still full - capacity, which may support lithium carbonate prices. [20] - **Strategy**: Close long positions at high prices in the range of [165000 - 175000] yuan/ton. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economy in 2026 will be a year of real weak recovery, with the macro - economy consolidating its bottom, exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating [79]. - Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and the low - interest - rate environment unchanged. The central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - In asset allocation, in the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Value - added**: In the first two months, the growth rate of industrial value - added accelerated, and the high - tech manufacturing industry grew by 13.1%, 6.8 percentage points faster than all industrial enterprises above a designated size [8][11]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded. In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, many projects that should have started last year will start in 2026 [13][16]. - **Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined. Consumers' consumption is restricted by factors such as weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and low proportion of disposable income in GDP [17][19]. - **Inflation**: Inflation rebounded, mainly due to the base effect. The prices of eggs and pigs decreased year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in crude oil prices drove up CPI and PPI, with PPI expected to rise faster [20][23]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The overall unemployment rate increased, but the youth unemployment rate decreased. The use of AI and robots and the increase in structural unemployment make it more difficult to create new jobs [24][27][28]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The manufacturing PMI continued to be weak. In the PMI sub - items, the purchase price of main raw materials was above the boom - bust line, the ex - factory price sub - item remained stable, and other sub - items were below the boom - bust line [29][33]. - **Production and Inventory**: Production was significantly stronger than demand, the inventory of finished products was rising, and downstream demand was weaker [34][37]. - **Construction Industry**: The PMI and important sub - items of the construction industry were at a low level in recent years, indicating the downturn of the construction industry [39]. - **Exports**: Import and export growth rates were much better than expected, and exports were very resilient. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of exports to the US was stable, and the trade surplus in the first two months exceeded $20 billion, expected to exceed last year's level, which will support the RMB exchange rate [41][43]. - **Chip Industry**: In recent years, the effect of chip import substitution has emerged. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and the scale of chip exports is increasing year by year. It is expected that China will become a net exporter of chips in 5 - 10 years [45]. - **Automobile Industry**: The production, sales, and export volume of automobiles reached new highs last year. Although the sales growth rate of domestic automobiles may face pressure due to the reduction of subsidies, the overall sales scale can probably be maintained. This year, automobile exports are expected to reach 9 - 10 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10% [48]. - **Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded, mainly due to the rapid recovery of profits in the upstream mining industry, but the profit margins of the mid - and downstream manufacturing and energy industries declined [49][53]. - **M1 and M1 - M2 Scissors Difference**: The growth rate of M1 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 scissors difference converged rapidly. Historically, when the M1 - M2 scissors difference turns positive, PPI will also turn positive, and the current stock market may be accompanied by a commodity bull market [54][56]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of real - estate under construction has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process. There is almost no demand for "speculating in real estate" among residents, and the stock market may be the only large - scale asset that can absorb a large amount of liquidity [58]. - **Deposit Transfer**: There is still room for deposit transfer. The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is still at a low level, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun [59][61]. - **Government Leverage**: The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low, and there is still room for increasing leverage. The loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time [64]. - **Macro - capital**: The macro - capital will remain loose for a long time. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital interest rate still has room to decline [66][68]. - **Bank Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange**: The bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has been in a large - scale surplus, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable [69]. 3.2 China's Energy System and Industrial Chain Advantages Highlighted by the US - Israel - Iran Conflict No detailed content provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Outlook in 2026: Caught between Supply - driven Inflation and Recession - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran makes it difficult to reach a peace agreement in the short term. Even if an agreement is reached, the damaged crude - oil production facilities cannot be repaired in the short term. High oil prices will push up inflation and suppress demand, eventually leading to an economic recession, but the market has not yet priced in the economic recession [77]. - **Other Commodities**: For commodities closely related to consumption, such as pigs and eggs, there are few opportunities. Crude - oil chemical products may continue to strengthen driven by rising crude - oil prices. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are weak due to the digestion of interest - rate hike expectations, and high - priced varieties will face great callback pressure when the market enters recession trading [79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The macro - economy will consolidate its bottom, with exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating. Policy will remain positive, and the central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - **Asset Allocation**: In the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities. Do not have high expectations for consumption - related commodities, and pay attention to crude - oil chemical products and some under - performing varieties [79].

- The report focuses on the potential geopolitical tipping point and its impact on AI and new energy sectors[1] - The report discusses the potential for a rapid decline in oil prices if geopolitical tensions ease, which could boost high-risk technology sectors[1] - The report highlights the importance of AI and new energy sectors as they are less affected by geopolitical risks[1] - The report suggests that if geopolitical risks increase, the demand expectations for cyclical sectors will be significantly affected, making the independent prosperity logic of the technology sector relatively superior[13] - The report mentions the approval and listing of the first batch of off-market dual-innovation AI index funds, which may bring incremental capital inflows[13] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the market timing using price segmentation and micro-market structure timing[14][15] - The report includes a section on industry monitoring, focusing on financing and securities lending, with specific net inflow and outflow amounts for various industries[19] - The report presents the performance of BARRA style factors, showing significant changes in style preferences during the week[20][21] - The report concludes with a summary of the performance of fundamental factors, indicating a preference for growth over value and highlighting the excess advantages of assets with positive financial leverage and high earnings volatility[23]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driven force has been formed yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore is strengthened, and the iron - making water output is expected to continue to recover after the end of production restrictions [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is not over, but in the short term, there is a risk of price correction due to macro - economic recession expectations and high volatility caused by the Middle - East situation. The black - metal sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is supported by cost, while polycrystalline silicon is looking for a bottom due to weak fundamentals [19][21]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in a wide range. Glass is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, and soda ash has a loose supply - demand pattern [25][27]. - For coking coal, the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is recommended to conduct short - term long - side operations or wait and see [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12183 tons, and the main - contract positions decreased by 56172 lots [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2940 tons, and the main - contract positions decreased by 21168 lots [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient, and the short - term support for steel demand is limited. The terminal demand is expected to remain weak. The hot - rolled coil demand recovers quickly, and the inventory is being reduced. The rebar supply and demand both increase, and the inventory is slightly reduced [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 806.50 yuan/ton, down 2.12% (- 17.50). The positions decreased by 31577 lots to 41.43 million lots. The weighted positions were 89.00 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 27.26 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.27% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the negotiation news, the iron ore price dropped rapidly. The overseas ore shipments continued to rise, the near - end arrivals increased, and the iron - making water output increased. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 25, the manganese - silicon main contract (SM605) closed up 0.19% at 6492 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6250 yuan/ton, with a discount of 52 yuan/ton to the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 0.20% at 6088 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 12 yuan/ton to the futures [7][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. The ferrosilicon fundamentals are good. The future market trends are affected by the overall black - metal market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors [11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 25, the coking - coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 0.68% at 1241.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 1.22% at 1776.0 yuan/ton. Different types of spot prices had different premiums or discounts to the futures [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. However, the energy attribute of coking coal may be stimulated. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - to - long - term, the coking - coal price is optimistic [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main - contract (SI2605) closed at 8770 yuan/ton, up 1.92% (+ 165). The weighted positions increased by 20576 lots to 370051 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged [18]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The main - contract (PS2605) closed at 36750 yuan/ton, up 2.85% (+ 1020). The weighted positions increased by 261 lots to 50720 lots. The spot prices of some types decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost support [19]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to fluctuate to find a bottom [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.86%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 18077 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 36327 lots [24]. - Soda ash: The main - contract closed at 1240 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 16). The spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory decreased by 1.86%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 296 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3335 lots [26]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The supply contraction supports the market sentiment, but high inventory and weak demand restrict price increases. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1100 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The supply is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1280 yuan/ton [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East represents a significant depletion of the dollar's credibility, marking a potential turning point for gold prices to reach new heights as the market begins to price in the implications of a U.S. defeat in the region [2][40]. Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of interest rate hikes on gold prices, indicating that the recent rapid adjustment in gold prices was influenced by the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, which led to a tightening of liquidity expectations due to rising oil and dollar values [4][24]. - As of March 23, the overnight swap market began pricing in an expected 0.8 rate hikes by the Federal Reserve within the year, while other central banks are also expected to raise rates multiple times [4][24]. - The article notes that the implied volatility of gold remains high, indicating that option investors are still anticipating significant price movements in the future [8][11]. Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious approach in the short term, as technical indicators show that gold is oversold, but a clear reversal trend has not yet emerged [8][11]. - The short-term and medium-term trading crowding metrics for gold were reported at 0% and 21.5% respectively as of March 23, indicating a potential for price adjustments [11][19]. - The article highlights that the current economic environment, characterized by high inflation and unemployment, could lead to a resurgence in gold demand as a safe haven asset [24][25]. Group 4 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is seen as a sign of the decline in U.S. comprehensive national power, which could lead to a new bull market for gold [36][40]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. military's inability to achieve decisive victories in the Middle East could undermine the dollar's dominance and the "petrodollar" system, particularly if Iran's actions disrupt oil supply routes [36][38]. - The rising interest rates are also noted to complicate the U.S. government's debt management strategies, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar [36][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in the market's panic about recession trading, causing a slight rebound in Shanghai aluminum prices. Overseas supply has suffered substantial production cuts, and overseas inventories are still declining. As the absolute price drops, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increases, and the social inventory inflection point may be approaching. Long - term fundamentals of supply and demand are still optimistic, although there are some concerns about the domestic export market due to short - term transportation disruptions in the Middle East. Downstream processors with hedging needs can buy on dips for hedging, and speculators can participate after the risk sentiment stabilizes [7] - Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plants bid for 10,000 tons of alumina, with the arrival price ranging from 3060 - 3140 yuan/ton. Guinea will clarify the bauxite export restriction policy in early April. Although it is not clear whether it will cause a shortage of bauxite supply, the policy - oriented price limit is clear, and the cost support has been significantly raised. The alumina supply and demand remain in surplus, and the domestic supply pressure may further increase with the import window open. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and in the long term, the price center will shift upward due to raw material disturbances [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 23, 2026, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, a change of - 630 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum was - 150 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 40 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,410 yuan/ton, a change of - 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 175 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,100 yuan/ton, closed at 23,555 yuan/ton, a change of - 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,180 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,270 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 585,888 lots, and the position was 266,791 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of March 23, 2026, the SMM statistics showed that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.337 million tons, a change of - 0.2 million tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 403,360 tons, a change of - 198 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On March 23, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,730 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,780 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 302 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,055 yuan/ton, closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, a change of 88 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of 2.93%. The highest price reached 3,116 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,027 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 740,278 lots, and the position was 246,810 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 23, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 53,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 81,500 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The market outlook is recommended [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of 2025, multiple factors have jointly promoted the global "quasi-reflation trade", and commodities have shown a resonant upward trend. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran has significantly changed the previous macro - environment, and if the conflict persists, the financial market will likely shift towards a "recession" trade [1] - The impact of this attack on Iran on the crude - oil price far exceeds historical similar situations, and there are concerns that it will more severely affect the macro - economy. The gold price during this conflict may be weak, and the US dollar index may show more resilience in the short - to - medium term but will tend to weaken in the long run [1] - Copper prices are expected to rebound, but if the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited. If the conflict lasts, the "stagflation" stage caused by supply constraints may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - perspective on Commodity Prices - **Before the attack**: Since December 2025, due to valuation repair, demand recovery, global interest - rate cuts and improved supply - demand at the micro - level, the commodity prices have gradually turned pro - cyclical, and the financial market has shown characteristics of "quasi - reflation trade" [11][13] - **After the attack**: The attack on February 28 has affected the macro - economic demand and monetary policy direction. The "quasi - reflation trade" environment has been damaged, and the financial market may enter a "recession" trading environment [18] 3.2 Historical Experience for Commodity Trends - **Impact on crude - oil prices**: In the seven armed conflicts the US participated in since World War II, the impact of this attack on Iran on crude - oil prices far exceeds historical similar situations, with an oil - price increase of 47.07% [31] - **Impact on gold prices**: During the Gulf War and this attack on Iran, gold prices declined. The main reason is that the market's expectation of monetary easing was postponed due to concerns about inflation [36][38] - **Impact on the US dollar index**: In the short - to - medium term, the US dollar index may be more resilient due to sufficient US oil production and the possible strengthening of the "oil - dollar" system, but it will tend to weaken in the long run [41] - **Impact on copper prices**: After conflicts, copper prices generally show a "U" - shaped trend. If the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited [46][47] 3.3 Changes in Commodity Fundamentals Caused by the Attack - The attack has inhibited the export of products from the Middle East, affecting the production of products such as crude oil and the raw - material supply of downstream industries. If the conflict persists, the "stagflation" stage may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [53][57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Fuel oil, PTA, Styrene, PE PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping secondary line [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury bonds, Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin etc.), Precious metals and new energy (silver, platinum, palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate), Black metals (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese ore, coking coal, coke), Agricultural products (cotton, sugar, wheat, soybeans, pulp, logs, pork), Energy chemicals (asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, hydrogen, methanol, LPG) [1] Core Views - The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict persists, leading to a rise in crude oil prices, increased imported inflation pressure, and an impact on global capital market liquidity. Domestic small - and medium - cap stocks are affected. [1] - The index is expected to continue its volatile pattern. With the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, it is expected to consolidate and restart the upward trend. [1] - Treasury bonds fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure brought by fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks. [1] - Due to the tense Middle East situation, the prices of non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some energy and chemical products are under pressure, while some agricultural products and energy - related products show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index**: Expected to continue the volatile pattern. Long - term, consider building long positions using the advantage of stock index futures discount, and control positions. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: There is still a risk of price decline due to the tense Middle East situation and increased market risk - aversion. [1] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure due to the tense Middle East situation. Pay attention to the supply disruption of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East. [1] - **Alumina**: It has strengthened, but the implementation plan is unclear, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Zinc, tin**: Follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector and decline. Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Nickel**: May fluctuate, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. Pay attention to the RKAB approval and policy changes in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities after over - decline. [1] - **Stainless steel**: The futures price fluctuates widely. Pay attention to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Silver, platinum, palladium**: The prices are under pressure due to the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is a liquidity risk. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Energy storage demand is strong, but power demand is weak. There are factors such as battery export rush, mine - end disturbances, and strong capital risk - aversion. [1] Black metals - **Rebar**: Entered the de - stocking cycle, with relatively low total inventory pressure. The price is mainly supported by cost and has a certain discount. It is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle, but the inventory level is high. It is recommended to take a volatile approach, and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions in the spot - futures market. [1] - **Iron ore**: Policy fluctuations cause sharp price changes. It is not recommended to chase long or short. [1] - **Manganese ore**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are positive. [1] - **Coking coal, coke**: The prices have risen due to the Middle East conflict. The focus is on the development of the geopolitical conflict and whether the positive feedback of long - position funds can be formed. [1] Agricultural products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is also abundant. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices. [1] - **Wheat**: The supply of surplus grain in the Northeast is tightening, and the price is supported by replenishment demand. Policy measures may partially relieve supply concerns, and the long - term trend depends on weather and other factors. [1] - **Soybeans**: The concern about the domestic supply gap has been alleviated. Pay attention to international trade policies and the adjustment of soybean planting area in the US. Consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity of M05 - M09. [1] - **Pulp**: The fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term. The futures price fluctuates in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton. [1] - **Logs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [1] - **Pork**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Bullish due to the tense Middle East situation, concerns about oil and gas supply interruption, and positive market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively small, but it is affected by the price transmission of crude oil. [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material cost, positive market sentiment, normal climate in the production area, and an expanded spot - futures price difference. [1] - **BR rubber**: The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have upward potential. The inventory may turn to de - stocking. [1] - **PTA**: Bullish due to the strong expectation of crude oil, supply shortage of Northeast Asian refineries, and tight PX supply. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price has risen sharply due to the reduction of raw material supply in domestic refineries. [1] - **Styrene**: Bullish due to the rise in the overseas pure - benzene market, supply disruptions, and strong demand from downstream and traders. [1] - **Hydrogen**: The upside is limited by weak domestic demand, but it is supported by anti - involution and cost factors. [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the shutdown of Iranian facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the domestic production is high, and the inventory is at a historical high. [1] - **PE PP**: Bullish due to the restricted raw material supply caused by the geopolitical situation, but the fundamentals are weak. [1] - **PVC**: Bullish as the capacity is expected to be cleared, and the ethylene - based method faces raw material shortages. [1] - **LPG**: The price is strong due to the increase in geopolitical premium, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the base - spread is expected to widen. [1] Other - **Shipping secondary line**: Bullish. The price increase is generally stable, but it is affected by the war sentiment. Airlines are expected to raise prices after the off - season in March. [1]