Employment Data Summary - In November 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, surpassing the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest level since October 2021[2] - The U6 unemployment rate jumped from 8.0% to 8.7%, marking the highest level since August 2021[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The total number of re-employed individuals surged by 293,000 over October and November, contributing 129% to the increase in unemployment[2] - Immigration labor supply turned positive, with a net increase of 132,000 over the two months, while domestic labor supply also rose by 118,000[3] - Despite the increase in labor supply, corporate hiring decreased, with a drop of 218,000 in October[3] Sector Performance - The production sector saw a positive employment change in November, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily driven by construction, which contributed 28,000 jobs[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs in November, down from 61,000 in October, largely due to a decline in transportation jobs[2] - Government employment remained stable in November after significant cuts in October due to a government shutdown[2] Wage Trends - Hourly wage growth slowed in November, with private sector wages increasing by only 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in October[2] - The construction sector maintained a steady wage growth rate of 0.2%, indicating a recovery trend[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock markets opened lower but showed slight recovery, while bond yields and the dollar experienced minor declines[3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in January 2026 rose to 25.5%, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates due to stable economic growth[3]

12月16日，昨日黄金走了一个震荡行情，亚盘开盘震荡上扬，欧盘刷新日内高点至4349美元一线，不过 美盘开始回落，完全吐出日内涨幅。最低是到了4285美元一线。后续有所企稳，最终金价是收盘于4304 美元，日线收于5连阳。 反之，若数据强劲（新增就业远超预期）：可能暂时缓解对经济衰退的担忧，但会推高市场对通胀和利 率的警惕，增加美联储内部鹰派的筹码。金价可能因此承压，转而向下寻求关键支撑。 从技术上来看，结合日线以及小时图结构，以及对今晚非农数据的不确定性规避，日内黄金暂时维持看 居高震荡，上方继续还是先关注4320-30一带争夺，此位是上周五跌破口，昨日行情也在此有反复，所 以今日也可能会继续展现其压制作用。下方则着重关注5日线4285附近支撑测试，此位也是昨日回撤的 低点位置，如果今晚非农数据促成利空，那么此位跌破可能性大增，下方或可再看上周五回撤低点4260 甚至10日线4240附近回撤。 总之，在今晚非农数据公布前，市场料将维持谨慎的高位震荡格局，波动率可能暂时收敛，但这是暴风 雨前的宁静。数据的结果将直接裁决"衰退交易"和"通胀担忧"谁将主导市场情绪，从而决定金价是向上 破位创出历史新高，还是向下展 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange market outlook for 2026, highlighting the expected return of loose trading conditions and the potential weakening of the US dollar in the first half of 2026, with the dollar index projected to fall to the 90-94 range [2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **2025 Market Dynamics**: The US dollar weakened in the first half of 2025 due to tariff uncertainties and fluctuating employment data, leading to a de-dollarization trend. However, by the second half, the dollar rebounded as tariff issues were resolved and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts were fully priced in, resulting in a low volatility environment [3][4]. - **Carry Trade Strategy**: In the current low volatility environment, the primary trading strategy is the carry trade, where investors sell low-yield currencies and buy high-yield currencies. Latin American currencies, such as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, performed well due to high interest rates [4][5]. - **Factors Influencing 2026 Volatility**: Key factors that may affect volatility in 2026 include changes in US policy expectations, deteriorating employment data, signs of economic recession indicated by PMI indices, and the stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman on interest rates [6][7]. - **Federal Reserve's Potential Actions**: The Federal Reserve may adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions, with a potential for further rate cuts if employment continues to decline. Current forward implied rates suggest a 50-75 basis point reduction is possible [7][8]. - **Global Interest Rate Disparities**: There is a significant difference in the future rate cut potential between the US and other central banks, with the US having more room to cut rates compared to the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. This could narrow interest rate differentials and encourage foreign investment in US assets without significantly increasing the dollar's value [8]. Other Important Considerations - **Upcoming Risks**: Notable risks include the potential for a US government shutdown, which could tighten liquidity, and ongoing tariff issues that may create market volatility. The possibility of the Supreme Court ruling on current tariffs could lead to renegotiations of trade agreements [10][11]. - **Impact of Technology and AI**: The rise of AI technology may enhance productivity but could also lead to demand shrinkage, creating imbalances in the global economy and potentially causing significant fluctuations in financial markets, including the forex market [9]. - **Chinese Yuan Outlook**: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually in 2025, supported by stable US-China trade relations and a weak dollar environment. The yuan may fall below 7 against the dollar in the first half of 2026 [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the foreign exchange market's dynamics, strategies, and potential risks moving forward.

证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 回调或是风险资产的买入时机 ——2025 年 12 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 对于当下全球资产定价面临的美国经济超预期走弱风险及日元加息风险，我们认为影 响均有限，若出现回调则有望带来风险资产的买入良机。 ❑ 美国经济衰退及日元加息两大宏观风险的影响可能都相对有限，若风险资产因此 出现回调，可能带来较好买入机会。 从历史统计结果来看，2022 年以来，美国财政赤字约领先服务业 PMI 就业分项 4 个月左右，前期美国财政的边际紧缩可能导致即将公布的 11 月非农等硬数据低 于市场预期，这可能带来脉冲性的衰退交易。不过，近期财政力度趋于收缩，部 分源自政府关门抑制了支出，财政部发债所得资金淤积在 TGA 账户中。而在政府 重新开门后，我们已经观察到 TGA 账户余额的下降，财政有望重新转向扩张，对 应经济预期即便阶段性下修，也可能迅速趋于稳定。因此，若出现衰退交易，反 而可能带来风险资产较好的买入机会。此外，近期日本央行暗示将于 12 月加息亦 引发市场担忧，但从数据上看，CME 日元兑美元期货非商业空头净持仓数量与美 元兑日元汇率之间存在显著相关性，而自 2024 年 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent weak and volatile prices of gold and silver are due to the tight overseas liquidity, but this risk has been reduced for the time being [4]. - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The October FOMC meeting signaled the uncertainty of a December rate cut and strengthened the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach [4]. - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tight physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.63% to 916.38 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.58% to 11,381.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 47.86 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.16 [2]. - After President Trump's speech on resolving the government shutdown, the market's expectation of liquidity tightening was alleviated. The better - than - expected US October ADP employment data eased the recession trading after the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the price of silver outperformed that of gold [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - The accumulation of the TGA account balance due to the US government shutdown is an important reason for the recent tight market liquidity. Trump's speech indicates that liquidity repair will occur soon, and the prices of gold and silver have stabilized [3]. - The number of new ADP employment in the US in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 and the previous value of - 32,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The overseas recession expectation has eased, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 1.25% to 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 29.77% to 171,800 lots, the CFTC - reported open interest increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1,178 tons [6]. - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 2.06% to 47.86 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume increased by 2.82% to 1,390,900 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.55% to 680,700 lots, and the inventory decreased by 1.42% to 656.17 tons [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. stock market, gold, and Bitcoin experienced gains following the release of better-than-expected ADP employment data, which indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the market expectation of around 30,000 [2] - The ADP employment figure, while above expectations, is still below historical averages, suggesting a balanced economic condition that reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, leading to a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to growth optimism [2] - Trump's immediate response to the data, emphasizing the need to reopen the government to restore market confidence, was interpreted as a signal that policy support would be forthcoming, further boosting market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the positive ADP data, a member of the Federal Reserve appointed by Trump reiterated that continued interest rate cuts remain reasonable, reinforcing the market's positive outlook [3] - Despite the gains in the stock market, caution remains as the upward trend is moderate and has not fully recovered from earlier losses, with rising dollar and bond yields serving as a warning signal [3] - A report titled "Gold Strategy: The Upcoming Scene" was released, indicating that the recent decline in gold prices may have ended, and outlining two trading plans for gold as the market shows signs of hesitation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge past the 4000-point mark in the A-share market is not expected to be a temporary peak, as the current rally is driven by a diverse range of sectors rather than just large financial institutions [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market's rise to 4000 points is characterized by a lack of enthusiasm compared to previous instances in 2007 and 2015, with current discussions primarily among stock market participants [1]. - The trading volume on the day the market crossed 4000 points was 21,653 billion, a decrease of 1,913 billion from the previous trading day, indicating insufficient momentum from new capital [1]. - The current market experience varies significantly among investors, with some sectors reaching 4800 points while others remain below 4000 [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The recent market rally includes contributions from technology (hardware and software), cyclical stocks, military, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a broad-based recovery [2]. - The structure of the current market rally appears relatively stable, suggesting a more sustainable upward trend [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The A-share market's recent performance is viewed as a rebound following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with global markets also reaching new highs due to increased liquidity [4]. - Potential risks include uncertainties regarding the sustainability of the U.S. stock market's rise, the possibility of an AI narrative bubble, and the implications of the interest rate cycle potentially leading to a recession [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Shenzhen Composite Index is close to its previous high, with discussions about whether the current rise represents a fifth wave in a broader market cycle [6]. - The market may face challenges if it does not reach new highs, potentially leading to a prolonged period of volatility [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the overseas recession trading, styrene follows the cost downwards. Its cost is weakening and is expected to be mainly bearish, showing an oscillating trend. The investment strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to be mainly bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $252. Non - integrated production profit is still negative. The port inventory has a small decline, but market expectations are poor. Supply increases after maintenance, and overseas demand is decreasing. The inventory shows a mixed situation, with the total port inventory decreasing by 2.67% and the commodity inventory increasing by 4.38%. The basis is stable, and concerns about supply - side raw material reduction due to overseas sanctions exist. The profit situation is not optimistic, and the valuation is neutral due to the significant decline in crude oil prices and the inflow of overseas pure benzene. The macro - policy also has a bearish impact. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: In the recession trading, it is weakly operating [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene is declining, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly. The domestic pure benzene production and related indicators show certain trends, and overseas demand drags down the pure benzene price [13][24][36]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas demand affects its price. The profit of aniline is gradually recovering, and the European and Asian benzene markets have different price and spread situations. The domestic market atmosphere is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing while imports are declining [36][85][93]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The domestic demand is okay, but the supply is strong. The inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and profit indicators show certain trends [51]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The inventory is rising, and the profit is declining [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The inventory is accumulating [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The profit is gradually recovering [85]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory is further declining [96]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production load is declining [107]. - **Caprolactam**: The production is stable, but the price is falling [118]. - **Household Appliances**: The export demand is decreasing year - on - year [128].

Asset Performance - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.02%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.70% to 6664.01[3] - Gold prices increased by 6.30% to $4224.75[3] Political and Economic Factors - US-China trade tensions remain uncertain, with a new round of negotiations planned for late October[4] - The US government shutdown is expected to last until November, potentially causing a GDP loss of $15 billion per week[11] - The US fiscal deficit for FY2025 is projected to decrease to 5.9%, aided by tariff revenues of $195 billion, a 153% increase from FY2024[13][18] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a resurgence of recession trades due to ongoing US-China tensions and the government shutdown[5][15] - Japan's political instability could impact global markets, particularly affecting TACO trades[14] Key Economic Indicators - Eurozone exports fell by 4.7% year-on-year in August, while imports decreased by 3.8%[22] - Japan's industrial production index was revised down to -1.5% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown[26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market was affected by sudden tariff disturbances over the weekend, with risks focused on liquidity and recession themes. If the optimistic scenario unfolds, aluminum prices are likely to find buying points on pullbacks; if a recession occurs, there may be significant downward pressure on aluminum profit margins. In the long - term, the report remains bullish on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - The alumina market's center continues to move downward, with valuation and drivers in continuous game. Short - term spot prices are weak, and there is still a risk of further decline [4]. Summaries by Directory Aluminum - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum initially strengthened with other non - ferrous metals but dropped at night on Friday due to Sino - US tariff issues. The decline was relatively mild. Market sentiment on Monday may further pull down prices, and the long - term trend remains bullish [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The SMM East China and South China spot discounts widened. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 634,000 tons during the National Day holiday. Downstream production and processing profits generally weakened [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate dropped to 62.5% during the National Day holiday. Different downstream sectors showed different performances, with some facing challenges such as weak orders, financial pressure, and logistical constraints [3]. Alumina - **Market Trend**: After the holiday and on Friday night, alumina's performance was weak, and its center continued to move down, currently testing the 2800 support level. The short - term spot market remains weak [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price continued to decline. The all - caliber social inventory of alumina increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons as of October 9 [4][51]. Trading - **Price Spreads**: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum flattened [9][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract slightly declined, and the trading volume slightly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract slightly increased and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also slightly increased [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days decreased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 420,000 tons in September. The shipping volume and floating inventory from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased. The outbound volume was divided, and the inbound volume declined [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to increase. As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from the previous week [38][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inventory continued to accumulate. As of October 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons to 634,000 tons [52]. - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods were divided. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip foil were also divided [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable. In September, the production of domestic bauxite decreased, with different trends in different provinces [64][66]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of October 10, the total operating capacity of alumina was 98.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly production of domestic metallurgical alumina was 1.863 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of October 9, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased, the production of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the production of aluminum plate - strip foil decreased slightly. The start - up rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased slightly to 62.5% [76][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better [91]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties interfered with market expectations [103]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [104]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed products were divided [112][114][117]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [120].