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美国上周首申人数连续第六周下降,续请失业金人数维持2021年来高位
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-24 15:41
Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in initial jobless claims for six weeks indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, leading traders to reduce interest rate cut bets [1][3] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, below the expected 226,000 and the previous week's 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April [1] - The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 224,500, the lowest in nearly three months [9] - Continuing claims remained high at 1.955 million, indicating structural pressures in the job market despite the lack of large-scale layoffs [1][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the jobless claims data, traders further reduced bets on interest rate cuts, anticipating fewer than two cuts this year [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing by over 4 basis points [3] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat, hovering near historical highs during the earnings season [3] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - Despite no significant layoffs, the job market faces structural pressures, with over 1.9 million individuals continuously claiming unemployment benefits for nine consecutive weeks [6] - The high number of continuing claims is particularly concentrated in the "Deep Tristate" area, which has seen a rise in claims since December 2021, potentially increasing the unemployment rate [7] - Economists predict a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in the upcoming July employment report, with expectations of slowed job growth [7][11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the employment market, with some officials asserting it remains robust while others express concerns about its marginal state [11]