接受彭博调查的经济学家此前预计，就业人数减少2500人，失业率为6.7%。 去年12月劳动力人口增加8.1万人，创2024年11月以来最大增幅，以两大省份安大略省和魁北克省为 首。劳动参与率因此升至65.4%。 加拿大经济连续第四个月实现就业增长，但失业率上升，失业人数增幅为三年来最大。 加拿大统计局1月9日公布的数据显示，去年12月就业人数增加8200人，过去四个月累计新增就业18.88 万人。失业率上升0.3个百分点，至6.8%。 隔夜互换市场交易员仍预计，加拿大央行将在今年大部分时间内把关键利率维持在2.25%，此前决策者 表示，只要经济增长和通胀走势符合预期，当前利率就处于"大致合适的水平"。加拿大央行下一次利率 决议及货币政策报告将于1月28日公布。编辑/陈佳靖 Servus Credit Union首席经济学家Charles St-Arnaud在电子邮件中表示，数据显示，未受美国贸易冲突影 响的行业仍然是就业增长的主要来源。 "总体而言，今天的报告显示劳动力市场具有一定的韧性，"他表示。"这将为2026年经济活动的回升提 供空间，尽管回升幅度可能有限。有鉴于此，该报告支持加拿大央行最近的评估，即除 ...

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the 30-stock Dow fell 108 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite underperformed, sliding 0.3% as pressure mounted on several large-cap technology stocks that have been key drivers of the market's recent gains. Markets have largely shrugged off global geopolitical risks in recent sessions, but the combination of rising tensions and policy uncertainty could test investor confidence as the year progresses. US equities opened lower on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 and the Dow Jone ...

美国12月"小非农"ADP就业人数与11月JOLTs职位空缺将于今晚21:15、23:00先后公布，提前为本周五非 农报告检验就业市场成色。数据有望显示劳动力市场整体仍具韧性，为美联储1月按兵不动提供支撑。 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国遴选新任美联储主席 聚焦缩表与终结"永久QE" •日本大幅削减超长期国债发行规模 【市场资讯】 •美国财政部长贝森特证实，政府正积极面试下一任美联储主席候选人，明确要求其致力于缩减美联储 职能，并终结"永久量化宽松"时代，以重塑货币政策框架。 •美国财长顾问Joe Lavorgna称，受益于特朗普时期的放松监管与资本支出扩张，美国正迎来"没有通胀 的繁荣"。若明年经济维持3%增速，通胀有望继续回落；在实际利率不变下，名义利率将对经济形成更 强抑制。 •据日本政府消息人士透露，下一财年20年、30年及40年期国债月度发行额各减少1000亿日元，全年新 发超长期国债预计降至约17万亿日元，为17年最低水平，10年期国债发行量则保持不变。 •美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率降至6.18%，连续第二周回落，较9月以来持续下行。尽管融资 成本下降，购房者反应依然迟缓，市场活跃度未见明显回升。 •截至12月19日当周，美国初请失业金人数为21.4万，显著低于预期的22.4万，四周均值亦小幅下降；续 请失业金人数略高于预期，整体显示劳动力市场保持韧性。 •俄罗斯11月工业产出同比下滑 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国至11月29日当周初请失业金人数意外降至19.1万人，远低于市场预期的22万人及前值21.8万人，突 显劳动力市场韧性，与近期疲软信号形成反差。反映趋势的四周移动平均值同步降至21.475万人（前值 22.425万人），续请失业金人数降至193.9万人（低于预期196.1万人）失业者重新就业加速。 ...

尽管经济增长乏力，欧元区劳动力市场依然表现出惊人的韧性，其7月份失业率意外下降，追平历史最 低纪录，这进一步巩固了市场对于欧洲央行短期内将维持利率不变的预期。 欧盟统计局周一公布的数据显示，欧元区7月失业率从6月的6.3%降至6.2%，失业人数减少了17万人。 这一数据追平了2024年11月创下的历史低点。 这一强劲的劳动力市场数据，为欧洲央行决策者提供了更多维持现有政策立场的理由。欧洲央行将于下 周召开议息会议，此前在7月的会议上，该行一年来首次暂停加息。欧洲央行行长拉加德当时表示，鉴 于通胀有望稳定在2%的目标水平，货币政策"处于一个良好位置"，投资者普遍预计近期不会出现货币 政策变动。 欧元区劳动力市场的稳健表现，与疲软的宏观经济背景形成鲜明对比。面对贸易壁垒增加、能源危机等 一系列冲击，企业在人口结构变化的背景下选择留住员工，这为整个经济体提供了缓冲，也深刻影响着 欧洲央行的政策考量。 劳动力市场韧性凸显，但经济逆风持续 除了总体失业率降至6.2%的历史低位外，年轻劳动力的就业状况也得到显著改善。数据显示，25岁以 下人群的失业率从14.3%大幅下降至13.9%，表明企业在招聘方面依然积极。纵观近年来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in initial jobless claims for six weeks indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, leading traders to reduce interest rate cut bets [1][3] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, below the expected 226,000 and the previous week's 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April [1] - The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 224,500, the lowest in nearly three months [9] - Continuing claims remained high at 1.955 million, indicating structural pressures in the job market despite the lack of large-scale layoffs [1][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the jobless claims data, traders further reduced bets on interest rate cuts, anticipating fewer than two cuts this year [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing by over 4 basis points [3] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat, hovering near historical highs during the earnings season [3] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - Despite no significant layoffs, the job market faces structural pressures, with over 1.9 million individuals continuously claiming unemployment benefits for nine consecutive weeks [6] - The high number of continuing claims is particularly concentrated in the "Deep Tristate" area, which has seen a rise in claims since December 2021, potentially increasing the unemployment rate [7] - Economists predict a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in the upcoming July employment report, with expectations of slowed job growth [7][11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the employment market, with some officials asserting it remains robust while others express concerns about its marginal state [11]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading at 771.56 yuan per gram, down 0.51% from the previous session, with a high of 777.20 yuan and a low of 769.34 yuan, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - Australia's June job advertisements surged to the highest level in 12 months, driven by strong growth in the private sector, with a 1.8% increase from May and a 3.2% rise in private sector job vacancies [3] - Despite a 0.4% year-on-year decline in job advertisements, they remain 16.1% above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting resilience in the labor market [3] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in July and August, as indicated by economists, due to economic and inflation slowdowns [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia is hovering around a historical low of 4.1%, but is projected to rise to 4.3% due to global economic pressures from U.S. tariff risks [3] - Short-term gold futures are expected to maintain volatility, with a focus on breaking through the 755-780 yuan per gram range, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high, with strict stop-loss measures [3]

Core Insights - Australia's job advertisements surged to the highest level in 12 months in June, driven by strong growth in the private sector, indicating resilience in the labor market amid lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - The increase in job advertisements reflects a tightening labor market in Australia [1] - Economists from ANZ Bank expect the current easing cycle to be relatively shallow due to the overall resilience of the economy [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to lower the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in both July and August meetings [1]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data revealed a complex resilience in the U.S. labor market, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy paths [2] - The non-farm employment population increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing economists' predictions [3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, remaining stable within a narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Average hourly wage growth showed a moderate slowdown, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, slightly down from the expected 3.9% and revised previous value of 3.8% [6] - The report indicated a combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth, suggesting a vibrant labor market while alleviating inflation concerns [6] - Long-term unemployed individuals increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed, indicating underlying structural issues in the labor market [6] Group 3 - Following the data release, financial markets adjusted rapidly, with the dollar index rising by 0.47% to 97.308, while spot gold fell by $19 to $3,328.04 per ounce, a decrease of 0.65% [8] - The expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 98% to 80% after the data release [11] - Despite the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts, the overnight index swap market still indicates over 70% chance of a rate cut before September, reflecting a long-term expectation for policy easing [11] Group 4 - Employment growth in June showed a pattern of "government strong, private weak," with government jobs increasing by 73,000, primarily in state and local education sectors, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs [12] - The private sector added 74,000 jobs, below the expected 100,000, with notable growth in healthcare and social assistance, but overall performance was weaker than anticipated [12] - Analysts noted that the report did not provide an urgent reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, emphasizing the ongoing strength in employment data [15] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts despite the June non-farm data easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, predicting year-end yields of 3.45% for two-year and 4.20% for ten-year Treasuries [16] - The firm highlighted that government hiring driving growth and a slight decline in labor participation rate weakened the perceived strength of the data [16] - The potential signing of a $3.4 trillion fiscal plan by Trump, including tax cuts, could increase government borrowing but may enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries if achieved through rate cuts [18]