Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in initial jobless claims for six weeks indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, leading traders to reduce interest rate cut bets [1][3] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, below the expected 226,000 and the previous week's 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April [1] - The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 224,500, the lowest in nearly three months [9] - Continuing claims remained high at 1.955 million, indicating structural pressures in the job market despite the lack of large-scale layoffs [1][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the jobless claims data, traders further reduced bets on interest rate cuts, anticipating fewer than two cuts this year [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing by over 4 basis points [3] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat, hovering near historical highs during the earnings season [3] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - Despite no significant layoffs, the job market faces structural pressures, with over 1.9 million individuals continuously claiming unemployment benefits for nine consecutive weeks [6] - The high number of continuing claims is particularly concentrated in the "Deep Tristate" area, which has seen a rise in claims since December 2021, potentially increasing the unemployment rate [7] - Economists predict a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in the upcoming July employment report, with expectations of slowed job growth [7][11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the employment market, with some officials asserting it remains robust while others express concerns about its marginal state [11]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading at 771.56 yuan per gram, down 0.51% from the previous session, with a high of 777.20 yuan and a low of 769.34 yuan, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - Australia's June job advertisements surged to the highest level in 12 months, driven by strong growth in the private sector, with a 1.8% increase from May and a 3.2% rise in private sector job vacancies [3] - Despite a 0.4% year-on-year decline in job advertisements, they remain 16.1% above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting resilience in the labor market [3] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in July and August, as indicated by economists, due to economic and inflation slowdowns [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia is hovering around a historical low of 4.1%, but is projected to rise to 4.3% due to global economic pressures from U.S. tariff risks [3] - Short-term gold futures are expected to maintain volatility, with a focus on breaking through the 755-780 yuan per gram range, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high, with strict stop-loss measures [3]

Core Insights - Australia's job advertisements surged to the highest level in 12 months in June, driven by strong growth in the private sector, indicating resilience in the labor market amid lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - The increase in job advertisements reflects a tightening labor market in Australia [1] - Economists from ANZ Bank expect the current easing cycle to be relatively shallow due to the overall resilience of the economy [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to lower the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in both July and August meetings [1]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data revealed a complex resilience in the U.S. labor market, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy paths [2] - The non-farm employment population increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing economists' predictions [3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, remaining stable within a narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Average hourly wage growth showed a moderate slowdown, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, slightly down from the expected 3.9% and revised previous value of 3.8% [6] - The report indicated a combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth, suggesting a vibrant labor market while alleviating inflation concerns [6] - Long-term unemployed individuals increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed, indicating underlying structural issues in the labor market [6] Group 3 - Following the data release, financial markets adjusted rapidly, with the dollar index rising by 0.47% to 97.308, while spot gold fell by $19 to $3,328.04 per ounce, a decrease of 0.65% [8] - The expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 98% to 80% after the data release [11] - Despite the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts, the overnight index swap market still indicates over 70% chance of a rate cut before September, reflecting a long-term expectation for policy easing [11] Group 4 - Employment growth in June showed a pattern of "government strong, private weak," with government jobs increasing by 73,000, primarily in state and local education sectors, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs [12] - The private sector added 74,000 jobs, below the expected 100,000, with notable growth in healthcare and social assistance, but overall performance was weaker than anticipated [12] - Analysts noted that the report did not provide an urgent reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, emphasizing the ongoing strength in employment data [15] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts despite the June non-farm data easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, predicting year-end yields of 3.45% for two-year and 4.20% for ten-year Treasuries [16] - The firm highlighted that government hiring driving growth and a slight decline in labor participation rate weakened the perceived strength of the data [16] - The potential signing of a $3.4 trillion fiscal plan by Trump, including tax cuts, could increase government borrowing but may enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries if achieved through rate cuts [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasizes the resilience of the labor market and the need to balance achieving two key objectives [1] Group 1 - The labor market has proven to be resilient [1] - Consumer spending remains stable, although there is a sense of consumer restraint [1]

Group 1 - President Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report, emphasizing that consumers have been waiting for prices to drop and asserting that there is no inflation [2][4] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, surpassing market expectations of 133,000, although it is lower than the revised figure of 185,000 for March [2][4] - Despite previous criticisms, Trump has softened his stance towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating he has no intention of firing him and expressing a desire to be respectful towards the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The April employment growth remains strong, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating that uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have not significantly impacted hiring plans [4][5] - The report shows a broad distribution of job growth, particularly in healthcare, while the manufacturing sector experienced layoffs, marking the most significant production decline since 2020 [5] - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about lowering interest rates until the specific impacts of the Trump administration's policies on the economy are clearer, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the upcoming meeting [5]