澳大利亚：剖析劳动力市场 韧性 cu，约翰·斯普雷，王尼，袁燕·张，莫妮卡·佩特雷斯 SIP/2026/011请注意，这个数字可能是某个文件编号或代码，直译即可。 国际货币基金组织选定问题文件由IMF工作人员编制，作为与成员国 定期磋商的背景文件。 它基于2026年1月21日完成时的可用信息。此 论文还作为IMF国家报告第26/39号单独发表。 2026 二月 份 © 2026 国际货币基金组织 SIP/2026/011请注意，这个数字可能是某个文件编号或代码，直译即可。 国际货币基金组织选定问题报告 亚太部 澳大利亚：解读劳动力市场韧性 由Monica Petrescu、John Spray、Ni Wang和Yuanyan Sophia Zhang*编写* 授权由Lamin Leigh分发，2026年2月 国际货币基金组织选定的议题报告 由国际货币基金组织（IMF）工作人员编制，作为与成员国定期协商的背景文件。 这 是基于当时可用的信息，它也被单独发布为国际货币基金组织国家报告第26/39号。 于2026年1月21日完成。本文是 摘要： 澳大利亚的劳动力市场在增长放缓的情况下依然保持韧性，就业增长强劲，失业 ...

在通胀担忧重新升温之际，这份就业数据预计将压制投资者对美联储降息的预期。美伊之间的紧张局势 加剧已经引发油价走高将推动通胀的担忧。而最新的美联储会议纪要显示，关于通胀前景，美联储官员 预计通胀将朝着2%下行，但下降的步伐和时机仍不确定。关税对核心商品价格的影响可能在今年开始 减弱。大多数与会官员警告称，通胀朝着2%这一目标下行的进展可能比普遍预期更慢、更不均衡，通 胀持续高于目标的风险不容忽视。部分官员还提出，持续的需求压力可能使通胀保持高位。 智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的数据显示，美国截至2月14日当周初请失业金人数降至20.6万，为1月10 日当周以来最低水平，低于市场预期的22.5万和修正后的前值22.9万。美国截至2月7日当周续请失业金 人数为186.9万，高于市场预期的186万和修正后的前值185.2万;美国截至2月14日当周初请失业金人数四 周均值为21.90万，略低于修正后的前值22.0万。这份最新的初请失业金数据表明，美国劳动力市场依然 有韧性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that despite alarming headlines regarding the labor market data, such as the surge in initial jobless claims and the highest number of layoffs since 2009, these figures are significantly distorted by seasonal factors, extreme weather, and statistical recalibrations [1][9]. Group 1: Initial Jobless Claims - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 31 rose sharply from 209,000 to 231,000, marking the highest level since mid-October of the previous year when excluding seasonal distortions [1][9]. - Morgan Stanley believes this increase is not a cause for excessive concern, as it aligns with expected seasonal trends [8]. Group 2: Weather Impact - The rise in claims is partly attributed to short-term disruptions caused by weather events, specifically "Winter Storm Fern," which likely temporarily inflated the number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits [9]. Group 3: Continued Claims Data - The number of continued jobless claims increased slightly from 1.819 million to 1.844 million, but Morgan Stanley views this as a "good number," indicating resilience in the labor market [10]. - The four-week moving average of continued claims is at its lowest level since October 2024, suggesting that the ability or willingness of unemployed individuals to find new jobs remains intact [10]. Group 4: Challenger Layoff Report - The Challenger layoff report for January indicated a total of 108,000 announced layoffs, the highest for January since 2009, but Morgan Stanley argues that this portrayal is misleading [11]. - The report's figures are closer to historical averages for January in recent years, rather than indicative of a crisis similar to 2009 [11]. Group 5: Layoff Data Breakdown - Within the 108,000 layoffs, 30,000 were attributed to UPS and 16,000 to Amazon, with UPS reducing its transportation business for Amazon and Amazon's layoffs primarily affecting office staff [13]. - There is a concern regarding potential double counting in Amazon's layoffs, as the company had previously announced a layoff target of 30,000 in October, which may have already been included in earlier reports [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and the labor market is resilient, indicating no immediate need for further rate cuts [1][2] - There is a growing consensus within the Fed for an "extended observation period," with officials like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President George opposing premature rate adjustments [1][3] - Recent economic data supports the Fed's stance, showing a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.4% and initial jobless claims dropping to 198,000, indicating stability in the job market despite high interest rates [2][3] Group 2 - The current inflation rate is hovering around 3%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, which reinforces the decision to maintain a cautious policy [2][3] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has diminished, with futures pricing indicating a lower probability of rate reductions before June, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing [2] - The strength of the US dollar is attributed to stable interest rate expectations, impacting non-US currencies like the British pound, which is facing resistance in its upward movement [2][3] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a potential variable of concern, with officials expressing support for Chair Powell and emphasizing that policy decisions should be based on data rather than political pressure [3] - The foreign exchange market has largely priced in the scenario of a pause in rate cuts, with the dollar's strength reflecting the continuation of stable rate expectations rather than the beginning of a new trend [3] - In the absence of new policy signals or key data, major currency pairs are expected to remain within critical ranges, with market focus shifting towards upcoming inflation data and Fed officials' statements [3]

Copper - Copper prices fluctuated overnight, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic context shows that initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 198,000, significantly below the market expectation of 215,000 and the previous value of 208,000, indicating a resilient labor market [2][12] - The U.S. Kansas City Fed President stated there is currently no reason to cut interest rates, as doing so could hinder progress in controlling inflation and would not benefit the labor market [2][12] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates. Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper stocks by 500 tons to 141,125 tons, while Comex stocks increased by 4,653 tons to 488,720 tons [2][12] - Domestic copper prices rose again, but downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, focusing on essential needs. Additionally, import losses have widened, and the export window is gradually opening, which may benefit first-quarter export demand [2][12] - Trump indicated that there would be no temporary tariffs on key minerals like copper. The geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Iran, along with volatility in precious metals, has spilled over, causing instability in high copper prices [2][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 1.04% to $18,590 per ton, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 0.24% to 146,880 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 624 tons to 285,282 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 1,700 tons to 41,972 tons [3][13] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a reduction in the nickel ore production target for 2026 from 364 million tons to approximately 250-260 million tons, which may create a global primary nickel supply-demand gap, potentially driving nickel prices higher [3][13][14] - The production of primary nickel increased significantly by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, indicating strong demand for hedging in the market [3][13] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a weak trend, with AO2605 settling at 2,749 yuan per ton, down 1.33%. SHFE aluminum prices also declined, with AL2603 at 24,320 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [6][15] - The SMM aluminum oxide price fell to 2,650 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot premiums expanded to 130 yuan per ton. The market is experiencing high inventory levels, leading to low premium purchasing sentiment and continued cost pressure [6][15] - The end of environmental controls and the cancellation of export tax rebates are expected to impact the market, with aluminum prices maintaining a high rhythm and spot premiums continuing to narrow [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,730 yuan per ton, up 0.46%. The inventory of industrial silicon is gradually shifting towards intermediate links, with hidden inventory increasing [7][16] - Polysilicon prices experienced a slight decline, with the main contract at 48,670 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. The market is facing pressures from logistics disruptions and speculative trading sentiment is cooling down [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.31% to 163,220 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 4,000 yuan to 159,000 yuan per ton [8][17] - Supply-side production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, while demand for lithium materials is expected to decline in January 2026, with a projected decrease in production for various battery types [8][17] - Despite current raw material price increases potentially suppressing terminal demand, the overall market sentiment remains bullish on lithium prices due to low inventory levels and speculative demand [8][17]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market shows resilience as indicated by unemployment claims, layoff announcements, and other metrics [1] Group 1 - Unemployment claims are reflecting a stable labor market [1] - Layoff announcements are not significantly increasing, suggesting job security [1] - Other economic indicators also support the notion of a robust labor market [1]

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher, influenced by Wall Street gains following a U.S. job report indicating fewer jobs created in December than expected, despite a decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting labor market resilience [1] - Investors are monitoring oil prices as protests in Iran continue, resulting in over 500 fatalities, with President Trump considering intervention options [2] - Brent crude futures increased by 0.84% to $63.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 0.83% to $59.62 [2] Group 2 - Spot gold prices surged over 1.6% to reach an all-time high of $4,581.29 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Canada's economy experienced job growth for the fourth consecutive month, with an increase of 8,200 jobs in December and a total of 188,800 jobs added over the past four months [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, marking the largest monthly increase in unemployment in three years, with 72,900 more people unemployed in December [1] - The labor force participation rate increased to 65.4%, driven by an increase of 81,000 in the labor force population, the largest gain since November 2024 [1] Group 2 - The report indicates a certain resilience in the labor market, which may provide room for economic activity to rebound by 2026, although the extent of the rebound may be limited [2] - The overnight swap market traders expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25% for most of the year, as long as economic growth and inflation trends meet expectations [2] - The next interest rate decision and monetary policy report from the Bank of Canada is scheduled for January 28 [2]

Market Overview - US equities opened lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 108 points or 0.2%, as major technology stocks weakened despite a rally in defence stocks [1] - The Nasdaq Composite underperformed, sliding 0.3% due to pressure on large-cap technology stocks that have driven recent market gains [1][3] Technology Sector - Technology stocks, including Meta Platforms, Apple, and Netflix, experienced declines, which limited market upside even as other sectors showed strength [3] - The pullback in tech stocks followed a cautious tone from the previous session, where both the S&P 500 and the Dow finished in the red after reaching all-time highs [3] Defence Sector - Defence stocks surged following President Trump's proposal for a $1.5 trillion defence budget for 2027, a significant increase from the $901 billion budget approved for 2026 [5] - Northrop Grumman rose over 8%, Lockheed Martin climbed 6%, RTX advanced more than 3%, and Kratos Defence jumped nearly 13%, making defence one of the strongest-performing segments [5][6] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 3 were reported at 208,000, up from 200,000 the previous week, but below economists' expectations of 210,000, indicating resilience in the US labour market [7][8] - Claims data has shown volatility recently, but initial claims remain near the lower end of the range seen over the past year, suggesting employers are retaining their workforces [8][9]

Group 1 - The upcoming release of the ADP employment numbers for December and the JOLTs job openings for November is expected to provide insights into the labor market's resilience [1] - The data is anticipated to support the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its current stance in January [1]