Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which impacts the monetary environment, real estate, consumer finance, and the overall economic outlook [1][10] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with an annual rate of 2.7%. The core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, with an annual rate potentially reaching 3% [3][7] Employment Market - The employment market remains resilient, but monthly job growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low of 4.2%. This combination of high inflation and slightly cooling employment makes the monetary policy path more delicate [7][10] Federal Reserve Meeting - Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming annual central bank meeting, as speeches may provide important signals regarding future policy direction. The market widely anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut in September, with the possibility of a similar adjustment later in the year [7][10] Investment Strategy - The company advises that market volatility may increase until interest rate expectations become clearer. Real estate, bonds, and interest rate-sensitive assets will be directly affected. The dollar's performance will largely depend on changes in interest rate expectations, with potential downward pressure if stronger rate cut signals are released [10]

近几周，特朗普加大了对鲍威尔的施压，包括在周二威胁就美联储总部翻修项目提起重大诉讼。该项目 因成本超支而受到质疑。 特朗普周三表示，他认为利率应该再低三个或四个百分点。"我们每年支付的利息就超过一万亿美元， 这其实只是一个账面上的计算。" 鲍威尔为美联储的利率政策辩护，称美国总统大规模关税计划对通胀的影响存在不确定性。但特朗普则 表示，高借贷成本正在伤害美国企业、消费者和购房者。"人们无法获得抵押贷款。他们因为太晚了的 鲍威尔而支付过高的费用，他真的很不称职。" 数据显示，周二早些时候公布的美国7月核心通胀有所回升，尽管商品价格涨幅较为温和。不过整体 看，CPI数据缓解了关税推动物价上升的担忧，并提升了市场对美联储将在9月降息的预期。 美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会"稍微提前"任命下一任美联储主席，并补充称，自己已经将人选范围缩 小到三四位，作为鲍威尔的接任者。 特朗普周三在华盛顿肯尼迪中心的一场活动上说："我会在接下来的某个时间宣布新美联储主席的人选 ——我想会稍微提前一点宣布。我已经缩小到三四个名字了。"他称这些候选人都很优秀，非常出色。 特朗普此前多次抨击美联储维持利率不变的决定，并屡次要求鲍威尔辞职，还 ...

8月12日周二，特朗普在社交媒体上表示，他正在考虑允许对鲍威尔提起一项重大诉讼，理由是美联储总部翻修工程成本严重超支，从 原定的5000万美元飙升至30亿美元。特朗普发言后，美债收益率普遍跌幅收窄，10年期美债收益率转涨。 12日周二，特朗普在社交媒体上表示， 正在考虑允许对美联储主席鲍威尔提起重大诉讼，原因是美联储总部的翻修工程存在成本超支 问题。 他发文称： 杰罗姆·"太迟"·鲍威尔必须立刻降息 。史蒂夫·"马努钦"当时真是给了我一个"大礼"，竟然推荐了这么一个失败者。他总是"太迟"，造成的损害 是无法估量的。幸运的是，我们的经济太好了，好到足以抵御鲍威尔和这个自满的董事会。 特朗普一直想换掉鲍威尔，认为其利率政策阻碍了经济增长。他曾考虑直接解雇鲍威尔，但最终表示会等其任期结束，以避免对市场 造成冲击，鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月届满。媒体援引两位政府官员消息透露，财政部长贝森特正负责物色接替人选， 预计特朗普会 在今年秋天公布最终决定 。 与此同时，特朗普上周也抓住一个比预期更早的机会影响美联储，即提名他自己的首席经济顾问之一斯蒂芬·米兰担任美联储理事。米 兰的任命需经参议院批准，而且他只是接替现任美联储理 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]

Market Overview - US stock market closed higher, driven by a surge in Apple shares, as investors digested the latest corporate earnings and Trump's new tariff threats [1][3] - The Dow Jones increased by 81.38 points (0.19%) to 44,193.12, the Nasdaq rose by 252.87 points (1.21%) to 21,169.42, and the S&P 500 gained 45.87 points (0.73%) to 6,345.06 [3] Apple Inc. - Apple announced an additional $100 billion investment in US manufacturing, bringing its total investment in the US over the next four years to $600 billion [3] - A White House official indicated that Apple would largely be unaffected by tariffs imposed on India [3] Employment Data - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000 [3][4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, raising concerns about a potential economic turning point [3][4] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates due to concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] - Fed Chair Powell noted that the stability of the labor market allows for more information gathering before adjusting rates [4] Corporate Earnings - 81% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong corporate performance [5] - Notable performers included McDonald's, which reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings, and Arista Networks, which also saw a significant stock price increase due to strong earnings [5] - Conversely, Snap's stock plummeted due to slightly lower-than-expected revenue, and AMD's adjusted earnings per share fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in its stock price [5] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is currently cautious, with a focus on the quality of earnings rather than just exceeding expectations [5] - Michael Green from Simplify Asset Management noted that the market's reaction to positive earnings has been less enthusiastic than in the past, suggesting that expectations may have been too high [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the lack of indications for potential rate cuts have diminished the appeal of gold, especially in light of strong U.S. economic data [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment, but Standard Chartered Bank warns that the downside risks to employment figures are significantly higher than anticipated [1] - A weak employment report could accelerate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and deepen the decline of the U.S. dollar, leading to broader market impacts [1] Group 2 - The volatility surrounding non-farm payroll data presents opportunities for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations, allowing for both upward and downward positioning [2] - The expert team at the company provides insights into the implications of employment data, such as rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which could affect inflation trends [2] - Each non-farm payroll release serves as a critical moment for market logic re-evaluation and a test of traders' comprehensive skills [2]

Group 1 - Former President Trump calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, citing mistakes in interest rate decisions [2] - Trump criticizes Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre for allegedly inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and demands her immediate dismissal [2] - The U.S. Labor Secretary announced the appointment of William Wyatroski as the acting director of the Labor Statistics Bureau, replacing Erica McEntyre [2]

Core Viewpoint - Former President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, citing mistakes in interest rate policies [1] Group 1 - Trump highlighted the recent resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, appointed by President Biden, as a sign of accountability [1] - He stated that Kugler recognized Powell's errors regarding interest rates, implying that Powell should also resign for similar reasons [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell continues to refuse to act [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time since early 2025 that rates have been held steady [3] - Two board members appointed by Trump, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and board member Christopher Waller, voted against the decision, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, a rare occurrence since it is the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision simultaneously [3] Group 2: Trump and Powell's Relationship - Trump's ongoing demand for Powell to significantly lower interest rates highlights a long-standing disagreement between the two, with this latest criticism escalating their already tense relationship [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent slowdown in the job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in their upcoming September meeting, highlighting the challenging balance they face amid economic slowdown and rising inflation pressures [1] Employment Market Analysis - The labor market had previously shown robust job growth, which reassured Federal Reserve officials about maintaining interest rates [1] - Significant downward revisions in employment data for May and June have altered this perspective [1] - Federal Reserve officials have reduced their focus on overall job growth due to a simultaneous decline in labor force growth [1] Unemployment Rate Insights - The stability of the unemployment rate may mask underlying weaknesses, as a decrease in job seekers coincides with a drop in job vacancies [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the "downside risks" in the labor market, suggesting that actual weakness could justify policy easing [1]