Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4]. - Silver: Drops from the trading range [2][4]. - Copper: A stronger US dollar restricts price recovery [2][7]. - Zinc: Shows a slightly bullish trend [2][10]. - Lead: Lacks driving forces and prices fluctuate [2][13]. - Tin: Trades within a range [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply issues continue to escalate [2][20]. - Alumina: Shows a slightly bearish trend [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Mainly trades in a sideways range [2][24]. - Palladium: Trades in a narrow range [2][24]. - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][36]. - Stainless steel: Prices fluctuate as demand and cost factors compete [2][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D increased by 1.59% and 1.66% respectively, with trading volumes decreasing. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D increased by 1.13% and 0.54% respectively, with trading volumes showing different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 192,945 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2,628 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 250,587 ounces [4]. - **Macro - News**: Powell stated that the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position", and traders expect a possible rate cut this year. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.18%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Copper 3M increased by 0.44%, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 tons [7]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to gold, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news. Industry news shows that China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.68%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M increased by 1.07%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing [10]. - **News**: Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point plan", and the Iran - related war is changing the energy pattern [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.36%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Lead 3M increased by 0.69%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing [13]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 4.20%, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The closing price of LME Tin 3M increased by 0.35%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest decreasing [17]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to other metals, including Powell's remarks and some policy - related news [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased, with trading volume and open interest showing different trends. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the inventory of LME aluminum ingots decreased [20]. - **News**: Powell's remarks and Trump's threat to Iran [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum futures and related spot increased, while the prices of palladium futures and related spot showed mixed trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed differently [25]. - **Macro - News**: Policy is in a favorable position, and private credit does not pose a systemic risk. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have changed, and there are various events related to the Iran situation [27][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests showed different trends [37]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, and some nickel - related companies have production - related news. Inventory data shows changes in refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories [37][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**:烧碱, LLDPE, PP, 对二甲苯, LPG, 丙烯, 棕榈油, 白糖 [8][105][90][146][188][202] - **Neutral Outlook**:黄金, 白银, 铜, 铅, 锡, 氧化铝, 铂, 钯, 镍, 不锈钢, 碳酸锂, 工业硅, 螺纹钢, 热轧卷板, 硅铁, 锰硅, 焦炭, 焦煤, 纸浆, 玻璃, 甲醇, 苯乙烯, 纯碱, PVC, 橡胶, 合成橡胶, 短纤, 瓶片, 胶版印刷纸, 纯苯, 豆油, 豆粕, 豆一, 玉米, 棉花, 鸡蛋, 花生 [17][20][26][29][37][49][59][63][72][77][80][114][121][124][134][140][154][97][102][176][179][184][188][196][199][206][211][218] - **Negative Outlook**:铁矿石, 动力煤, 原木, 燃料油, 低硫燃料油, 生猪 [68][84][86][158][214] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Market Trends**: The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. For example, the situation in the Middle East affects the supply of raw materials and the production of related industries [7][111][154]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some commodities, it is recommended to buy on dips, such as in the case of 碳酸锂. For others, pay attention to spread trading opportunities, like in the 集运指数 (欧线) [59][172]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver show a neutral trend. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and silver has fallen from its oscillation platform [17]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price recovery. The production of refined copper in China from January to February increased year - on - year, while the import of scrap copper decreased [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly bullish trend, with prices oscillating upwards [23]. - **Lead**: Lacks driving forces, and prices are oscillating [26]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval [29]. - **Aluminum**: Supply issues continue to intensify. Alumina oscillates weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [33]. - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation and the increase in the cost of pyrometallurgical production supported by the ore end. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between demand and cost [49]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fossil Fuels**: - **Coal**:动力煤 has a short - term downward pressure due to weakening sentiment. Coke and 焦煤 oscillate widely [84][80]. - **Oil - related Products**: Fuel oil remains at a high level in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil is still weak [158]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA, 对二甲苯, MEG**: PTA and 对二甲苯 are in a short - term oscillating market and are expected to be bullish in the medium - term. MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium - term trend [90]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber oscillates widely, and synthetic rubber oscillates widely within a day [97][102]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. PP's supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently at a low valuation and is expected to oscillate strongly in the later period [8][110]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates strongly [124]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up [130]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene oscillates strongly, and styrene oscillates slightly bullishly [134][184]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [140]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances. Propylene has fundamental support and a bullish trend [146]. - **PVC**: Oscillates widely. The high inventory needs time to digest, but the market is expected to be supported in the long - term [154]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Related Products**: Soybeans and soybean meal oscillate. The market is waiting for the USDA report. Palm oil shows a short - term bullish performance due to B50 news, and soybean oil focuses on the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [188][196]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to policy auctions [199]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates strongly [202]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [206]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [211]. - **Pigs**: The de - stocking is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down [214]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [218]. Transportation - **集运 Index (欧线)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The near - month contract 2604 oscillates narrowly, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors [160].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced on the 18th that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of precious metals is weak today. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed down 0.79%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed down 2.37%, Platinum's main contract closed down 1.18%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 1.73% [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, and the world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation. The market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the latest US consumer spending has grown steadily, and the Iranian situation will intensify inflation pressure. The unexpected decrease in US employment and the rise in the unemployment rate in February challenge the Fed's view that the labor market is stabilizing. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of an interest rate hike is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's rate - cutting cycle is nearing its end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5011.30 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.60%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $5016.80 per ounce, up $21.95 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $192.90 (-3.70%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1113.52 yuan per gram, down 2.68 yuan (-0.24%) from the previous day and down 38.46 yuan (-3.34%) from the previous week [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1381 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons (-0.27%) [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.46 per ounce, down $1.54 (-1.90%) from the previous day and down $9.11 (-10.29%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $80.22 per ounce, up $1.27 (1.61%) from the previous day and down $8.31 (-9.39%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 19980 yuan per kilogram, down 328 yuan (-1.62%) from the previous day and down 2276 yuan (-10.23%) from the previous week [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2407 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 149.31 tons (-0.96%) [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week; London platinum closed at $2118.00 per ounce, up $41.00 (1.97%) from the previous day and down $14.00 (-0.66%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 19.90 yuan (3.73%) from the previous day and down 9.85 yuan (-1.75%) from the previous week [6] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2633 lots [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week; London palladium closed at $1601.00 per ounce, down $49.00 (-3.04%) from the previous day and down $49.00 (-2.97%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 9.20 yuan (2.31%) from the previous day and down 15.80 yuan (-3.73%) from the previous week [7] - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained at - 362 lots [7] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8] - US economic data: GDP (annualized YoY): 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous value; unemployment rate: 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous value; non - farm payrolls monthly change: - 9.20 million, down 2.18% from the previous value [8][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index: 248.83, down 46.73 (-15.81%) from the previous week; VIX index: 22.37, down 1.14 (-4.85%) from the previous day and down 2.56 (-10.27%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index: 364.40, up 4.68 (1.30%) from the previous day and up 9.43 (2.66%) from the previous week [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points on March 18, 2026, is 99.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in the future [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with spot gold falling below $4990 per ounce and currently reported at $5004 per ounce, while spot silver has dropped over 2% to $79.5 per ounce [1] - Major brands of gold jewelry have seen a price decline, with Chow Tai Fook gold jewelry priced at ¥1557 per gram, down ¥7 from ¥1547 per gram on March 14, and other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang also showing similar declines [1] - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19, where market participants are cautious ahead of potential changes in interest rate expectations, leading to increased selling pressure [2] Group 2 - The international gold price fell by 1.88% last week, while New York silver futures dropped by 3.52%, indicating a broader trend of declining precious metal prices [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates this month, but there is a significant focus on the dot plot, which may indicate a reduction in the number of expected rate cuts for the year from three to just one, impacting global asset pricing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish outlook on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. After geopolitical events provided short - term support to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices in the context of the US - Iran war triggered market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle - East conflict, but the stickiness on the service side slowed down the decline. Higher inflation expectations under the current rising energy prices have strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a long time this year, which suppresses precious metal prices. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.94% to 1137.50 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21706.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.76% to 5086.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.56% to 83.78 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a moderate month - on - month increase of 0.3%, and the core CPI month - on - month was stable at 0.2%, with the core inflation year - on - year increase at a near - five - year low [2] - The Iranian diplomatic spokesman said that many ships could still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with the Iranian Navy. Meanwhile, the Trump administration of the US intended to suspend the Jones Act to increase domestic oil transportation efficiency and stabilize oil prices [2] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [6] 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; GBS UK's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 30.59 tons; PHAU UK's holdings decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; GOLD UK's holdings increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; SGBS Switzerland's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 35.20 tons [65] - **Silver**: SLV US's closing price fell 2.72% to 77.91 dollars, the holdings decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; ETPMAG Australia's holdings remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; PSLV Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; CEF Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.66%, Shanghai Silver closed down 2.51%, Platinum closed down 0.94%, and Palladium closed up 2.08%. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short - term, oscillate at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US inflation cooled steadily, and the market still pays attention to the impact of energy prices. US employment unexpectedly decreased in February, and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of raising interest rates is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and have declined [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weak and volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex Gold active contract closed at $5183.90 per ounce, down $14.80 (-0.28%) from the previous day and up $32.30 (0.63%) from last week; London Gold closed at $5182.40 per ounce, down $27.30 (-0.52%) from the previous day and up $33.85 (0.66%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1148.10 yuan per gram, down 3.88 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and down 3.90 yuan (-0.34%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1146.26 yuan per gram, down 4.04 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2.30 yuan (-0.20%) from last week [2]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex Silver active contract closed at $85.91 per ounce, down $2.66 (-3.00%) from the previous day and up $2.15 (2.56%) from last week; London Silver closed at $86.23 per ounce, down $2.30 (-2.59%) from the previous day and down $0.55 (-0.64%) from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 22062.00 yuan per kilogram, down 194.00 yuan (-0.87%) from the previous day and up 423.00 yuan (1.95%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21851.00 yuan per kilogram, down 148.00 yuan (-0.67%) from the previous day and up 783.00 yuan (3.72%) from last week [4]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from last week; London Platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from last week [6]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from last week; London Palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from last week [7]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up $148.41 billion (0.00%) [8]. - Other economic data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].

Market Overview - In February 2026, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 6.8397 to 6.9695, showing an overall appreciation[2] - The onshore RMB rate fluctuated between 6.8397 and 6.9513, while the offshore RMB rate ranged from 6.8438 to 6.9414[2] - Key factors influencing the RMB's performance included the high-profile visit of the German Chancellor to China and increased expectations of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts[3] Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in March 2026, projected to oscillate between 6.62 and 6.95[1][8] - Factors supporting the RMB include diplomatic visits from major European leaders, enhancing bilateral trade relations and China's international standing[4][6] - Technological advancements, highlighted by the impressive performance of robots during the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, are also seen as a strong support for the RMB[6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic indicators show a controlled inflation rate of 2.4% in January 2026, with a core CPI growth of 2.5%, the lowest in four years[3] - Non-farm employment increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025[3] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks that could affect the RMB's stability, with potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions and asset values[6][7] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 could also influence the RMB's trajectory, as indicated by recent discussions among Fed officials[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.10%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 4.43%, the main contract of platinum closed down 4.55%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.78%. [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflationary pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong. [1] - The air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting industries such as shipping, aviation, and oil. The world faces the threat of rising energy costs and an increased risk of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may become long - term. [1] - In January, US producer prices accelerated, and enterprises raised prices to transfer tariff costs. The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mentioned the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts within the year, and the next rate cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly. [1] - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend. [1] Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex gold contract was $5099.50 per ounce, down $236.40 (-4.43%) from the previous day and down $61.00 (-1.18%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $5033.65 per ounce, down $280.25 (-5.27%) from the previous day and down $86.60 (-1.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1153.06 yuan per gram, down 28.94 yuan (-2.45%) from the previous day and up 2.00 yuan (0.17%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1152.95 yuan per gram, down 28.61 yuan (-2.42%) from the previous day and up 7.88 yuan (0.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 3880 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 18.58 tons (1.73%). [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex silver contract was $82.30 per ounce, down $7.31 (-8.16%) from the previous day and down $4.77 (-5.48%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $81.31 per ounce, down $13.32 (-14.07%) from the previous day and down $6.80 (-7.72%) from the previous week. [3] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21854.00 yuan per kilogram, up 209.00 yuan (0.97%) from the previous day and down 1175.00 yuan (-5.10%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 21561.00 yuan per kilogram, up 134.00 yuan (0.63%) from the previous day and down 570.00 yuan (-2.58%) from the previous week. [3] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1821 lots, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings decreased by 98.36 tons (-0.61%). [3][4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract was $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from the previous week. The price of London platinum was $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from the previous week. [4] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from the previous week. [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots. [4] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract was $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from the previous week. The price of London palladium was $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from the previous week. [5] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from the previous week. [5] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots. [5] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit and discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%. The reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.65%. [6] - The Fed's total assets were $66645.86 billion, up $2.16 billion (0.00%) from the previous week. M2 increased by 4.29% year - on - year, up 0.36 percentage points from the previous week. [6] - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.40%, up 0.05 (2.13%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous week. The US dollar index was 99.27, up 0.72 (0.73%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (1.65%) from the previous week. [6] - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also provided in detail. [6][7][8] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is presented in a table. For example, at the March 18, 2026 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 325 - 350 range is 2.7%, and in the 350 - 375 range is 97.3%. [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a neutral phase, with prices fluctuating between $5155 and $5200, as traders await confirmation of a strong move above $5200 before making further investments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold is on track for its seventh consecutive month of gains, with a rise of over 6% in February, driven by increased uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - The recent progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has not resulted in a breakthrough, and U.S. military presence in the region remains significant, contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase in January, down from 0.5% previously, and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, lower than the prior 3.0% [2]. - If the PPI data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining interest rates, which typically diminishes gold's attractiveness due to its lack of yield [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has formed a rectangular pattern on the hourly chart, with gold prices remaining above the 100-hour moving average (MA) at 5177.87, indicating a maintained short-term upward trend despite some intraday pullbacks [3]. - Initial resistance is noted around $5200, where previous upward movements have stalled, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards the next resistance level near $5220 [3]. - Immediate support is at the 100-hour MA, and a drop below this level could expose deeper support at $5130, aligning with recent lows and the lower end of the current consolidation range [3].