Group 1 - The British pound against the US dollar has retraced its early gains, trading around 1.3310, indicating a potential continuation of its seventh consecutive day of decline [3] - Optimistic UK retail sales data and the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data failed to support the pound, as investor sentiment remains pessimistic regarding the UK economy [2][3] - The UK Office for National Statistics reported a surprising 0.5% month-on-month increase in retail sales, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% decline, while the manufacturing PMI rose from an expected 46.6 to 49.6, still indicating contraction [3] Group 2 - Despite the positive consumer spending and business activity growth, concerns over a slowing labor market have led traders to increase bets on a dovish stance from the Bank of England [3] - The International Labour Organization (ILO) unemployment rate rose to 4.8%, the highest level since mid-2021, following weak employment data released in mid-October [3] Group 3 - Market speculation regarding a potential 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with traders pricing in a reduction to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [5] - US inflation has eased, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to focus on improving employment demand, as indicated by the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [5] Group 4 - The hope for a trade agreement between the US and China has strengthened the dollar, with President Trump expressing confidence in reaching an agreement following meetings with Chinese officials [5]