贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/24 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 4072.85 | 48.91 | 1545.00 | 1404.00 | 58.06 | 10675.50 | | 变化 | -17.75 | -1.94 | -12.00 | -4.00 | -0.94 | -83.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 100.22 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 157.46 | 1.82 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest monthly gain since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the previous value of 4.3% and higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, indicating a structural change as more potential workers entered the job market [3] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was recorded at 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%, while the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The healthcare sector was a key driver of job growth, adding 43,000 jobs in September, with outpatient care contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 [3] - Conversely, several sectors experienced job losses, including a reduction of 3,000 jobs in federal government employment, continuing a trend of workforce downsizing since January [4] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decrease of 25,000 jobs, linked to the slowdown in e-commerce growth and supply chain adjustments, while manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs amid ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, spot gold prices initially dropped nearly $20 but later rebounded as the market reacted to dovish signals from wage growth and rising unemployment [4] - Non-U.S. currencies strengthened, with the euro rising 30 points against the dollar and the pound increasing nearly 35 points, while the dollar index faced downward pressure [4] - Traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the likelihood of a cut in December remains low [4]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4126.95 with a change of 66.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 52.20 with a change of 1.90 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1534.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1411.00 with a change of 26.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.74 with a change of 0.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10742.00 with a change of 60.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 100.12 with a change of 0.53 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.15 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.31 with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 157.18 with a change of 1.66 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 14386.29 with a change of -93.47 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 547.69 with a change of -15.98 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1043.72 with a change of 2.29 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 15226.88 with a change of 8.46 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 830.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 1 with a change of -1.00 [1] Data Source - The data in the above charts are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [4]

日线级别上，汇价仍处于前期反弹后的回调通道中，5日均线与10日均线形成死叉压制，MACD指标绿 柱维持收缩态势，显示空方动能有所减弱但尚未完全消退。短期需重点关注区间突破有效性，若站稳 1.3155上方可视为短期企稳信号，反之则可能延续震荡下行格局。 美元指数的震荡走势成为英镑短期波动的核心变量。美联储内部鸽鹰分歧持续，市场对12月降息概率的 预判反复调整，使得美元缺乏明确趋势性方向，间接导致英镑难以形成独立行情。同时，英国劳动力市 场降温的前期信号仍在发酵，叠加消费信心不足，英镑内生上行动能受限。 11月19日亚市盘中，英镑兑美元交投于1.3130，较前一交易日收盘价下跌0.11%，日内波动区间收窄至 1.3125-1.3150，呈现弱市整理特征。当前英国经济数据处于阶段性空白，市场目光聚焦于今日稍晚公布 的英国10月CPI数据，这将直接影响英国央行后续货币政策路径预期。 从短期技术形态看，英镑兑美元已连续三个交易日在1.3125-1.3160区间内窄幅震荡，今开1.3146、当前 交投于1.3130，多空博弈陷入胶着。上方首要阻力位锁定1.3150日内高点，该位置若能被有效突破，有 望打开向1.3180的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 18. Currency Movements - The Euro against the US Dollar decreased by 0.08%, closing at 1.1583, with a daily high of 1.1608 and a low of 1.1572 [1] - The British Pound against the US Dollar fell by 0.03%, settling at 1.3151 [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.43% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.7996, after hitting a daily low of 0.7938 [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar increased by 0.31% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar declined by 0.52% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currency Movements - The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krona both appreciated by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krone decreased by 0.08% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty fell by 0.18% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint increased by 0.12% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently under pressure due to internal economic challenges in the UK and a weaker USD, trading around 1.3161. The combination of economic weaknesses and fiscal uncertainties in the UK limits the potential for a rebound against the USD, resulting in a range-bound trading scenario with support below and resistance above [1]. Economic Fundamentals - The UK economy faces multiple concerns, including a downgrade in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility and inflation data falling short of expectations, indicating insufficient recovery momentum and low business investment willingness [1]. - A fiscal gap of £20 billion highlights the government's dilemma between increasing spending to support growth and controlling debt risks, raising market concerns about the sustainability of UK fiscal policy, which has become a significant factor in GBP selling pressure [1]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains high interest rates to curb inflation; however, the risk of economic downturn leads to market expectations that rate cuts may occur sooner than those by the Federal Reserve, narrowing the interest rate differential and diminishing the attractiveness of the GBP [1]. Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is oscillating within the 1.3080-1.3220 range, with the 30-day moving average around 1.3100 indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Key support is at 1.3080, with potential declines to 1.3000 and 1.2950 if broken, while resistance is focused at 1.3220, with a breakthrough potentially leading to levels of 1.3300-1.3350 [2]. - Indicators show a narrowing of MACD green bars and a KDJ crossover, suggesting reduced bearish momentum but limited rebound potential. Upcoming economic data from both the UK and the US will be crucial for determining the direction of the GBP [2].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak employment data strengthening interest rate cut expectations, while progress on government funding stabilizes the dollar [1][4] - The ADP report indicates a reduction of approximately 11,000 jobs per week in the private sector, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][4] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially leading to the reopening of the government and the resumption of delayed official data [1][3] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen to around $4,140, a two-week high, driven by lower interest rate expectations reducing the holding costs of gold [2][4] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 99.50–99.55 range following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, despite concerns about potential economic slowdown reflected in upcoming data [3][4] - The Australian dollar and British pound are under pressure due to respective economic factors, with the Australian dollar hovering around 0.6520 and the British pound declining to approximately 1.3130 [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of government reopening and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these will be key catalysts for market direction [4] - The upcoming votes in the House and the performance of official data post-reopening will directly impact market risk appetite [3][4]

Group 1 - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1586 [1] - The British pound declined by 0.06% against the US dollar, settling at 1.3166 [1] - The euro increased by 0.32% against the British pound [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.59% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8003 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.07% to 99.62, with mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] Currency Performance - The euro declined by 0.06% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1557 [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.10% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3176 [1] - The Australian dollar rose by 0.65% against the US dollar, at 0.6536 [1] - The US dollar strengthened by 0.46% against the Japanese yen, trading at 154.1325 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.18% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.4021 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.02% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8049 [1]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]