贵金属早报 研究中心贵金属团队 2026/03/04 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 5313.90 | 94.62 | 2366.00 | 1793.00 | 71.23 | 13145.00 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -251.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.55 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 157.35 | 1.76 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 交 易 数 据 | | | | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

| | | | 貴金属早报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心贵金属团队 2026/03/02 | | | 价 格 表 现 | | | ODO BOURCE POINT | | ODO BEAURCE POINT | | | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦锂 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 5222.30 | 89.98 | | 2255.00 | 1769.00 | 67.02 | 13458.00 | | 変化 | 54.95 | 3.55 | | -68.00 | -63.00 | 1.81 | 132.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 97.64 | 1.18 | | 1.35 | 156.09 | | | | 変化 | -0.14 | 0.00 | | 0.00 | -0.04 | | | | 交易数据 | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5191.40 with a change of 196.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.94 with a change of 9.59 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 2058.00 with a change of -51.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 66.31 with a change of 3.42 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13061.50 with a change of 167.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.74 with a change of 0.88 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.18 with a change of -0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.35 with a change of -0.02 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 154.67 with a change of 1.97 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.77 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's value is 11321.76 with a change of -386.68 [1] - SHFE Silver's value is 349.88 with a change of -3.68 [1] - Gold ETF's value is 1086.47 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Silver ETF's value is 15830.38 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver's value is 493.67 with a change of 9.44 [1] - SGE Gold's value is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Another SGE Silver's value is 2 with a change not clearly presented [1]

策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 海外市场有何异动？ ——全球大类资产配置观察 2026 年 2 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股 市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？2025-10-23， 划重点：二十届四中全会公报对 A 股投资的启示 2025-10-26，布局消费主题投资机遇— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07- ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.23% to 97.08, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against most non-US currencies [1] Currency Movements - The euro declined by 0.15% against the dollar, trading at 1.1851 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.20% against the dollar, with a rate of 1.3628 [1] - The Australian dollar remained stable against the dollar, holding at 0.7072 [1] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 0.54% against the dollar, with a rate of 153.5205 [1] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.14% against the dollar, trading at 1.3637 [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.26% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.7697 [1]

Group 1 - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a further slowdown in inflation growth, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path [1] - In January, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate recorded 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since May of the previous year [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.5%, matching expectations and indicating the slowest growth since March 2021 [1][3] Group 2 - The decline in inflation is primarily attributed to a significant drop in energy prices, with the energy index falling by 1.5% in January, and gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%, alleviating upward pressure on overall inflation data [3] - Housing costs remain a major contributor to inflation, increasing by 0.2% in January, but this increase is relatively mild compared to previous years, providing strong support for the inflation outlook [3] - Current CPI levels suggest that the Federal Reserve is nearing its 2% inflation target, although the market may not price in an earlier rate cut, a slight reduction in terminal rates is deemed reasonable based on current data [3]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5077.85, with a change of 46.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.10, with a change of 3.82 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2120.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1733.00, with a change of 27.00 [1] - WTI Crude Oil's latest price is 63.96, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13170.00, with a change of 94.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 96.87, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.19, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 154.40, with no change [1] - The latest value of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.84, with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 12014.43, with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 342.10, with a change of 18.73 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1081.32, with a change of 2.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16236.18, with a change of 19.73 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 504.96, with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 1.00 [2] - Another SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with no change [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and the previous value of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, compared to the forecast and previous value of 4.4% [1] - The December non-farm payrolls were revised to an increase of 48,000, and November was revised to an increase of 41,000 [1] Group 2 - The annual benchmark revision showed a downward adjustment of 862,000 jobs, compared to the forecast decrease of 825,000 [1] - Following the employment data release, traders reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with full pricing now indicating a cut in July instead of June [1] - A Reuters survey indicated that among 101 economists, 60 expect a 25 basis point rate cut to the 3.25%-3.50% range by the end of June [1] Group 3 - The U.S. stock index futures rose after the data release, with Nasdaq futures up 0.35%, S&P 500 futures up 0.31%, and Dow futures up 0.24% [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.192% [1] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) initially surged by 50 points before quickly retreating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided 3. Summary of Key Points by Category Price Performance - Latest prices: London Gold at $4847.25, London Silver at $78.71, London Platinum at $2303.00, London Palladium at $1834.00, WTI Crude at $63.21, and LME Copper at $12924.00 [1] - Price changes: London Gold dropped by $137.85, London Silver by $11.88, London Platinum rose by $56.00, London Palladium by $17.00, and LME Copper dropped by $532.00 [1] - Other financial indicators: Dollar Index at 97.96 (up 0.31), Euro - US Dollar at 1.18 (unchanged), British Pound - US Dollar at 1.35 (down 0.01), US Dollar - Japanese Yen at 157.04 (up 0.13), and US 10 - year TIPS at 1.94 (unchanged) [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory at 12379.48 (down 86.51), SHFE Silver inventory at 412.46 (down 10.78), Gold ETF holdings at 1077.95 (down 4.00), and Silver ETF holdings at 16247.45 (down 122.60) [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold inventory at 506.49 (unchanged) and Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver inventory with a deferred - fee payment direction of 2 (unchanged) [1] Precious Metal Ratios - The report presents various precious metal ratios including gold - platinum ratio, platinum - palladium ratio, COMEX - London spread, gold - crude oil ratio, and gold - copper ratio over different time periods [1] Import Profits and Other Indicators - There are charts showing gold import profit, silver import profit, US Treasury bond interest rates and spreads, and their relationships with London spot gold prices [2][3][4] - Charts display inventory changes of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver, as well as holdings of gold and silver ETFs [3] - Charts show the positions and settlements of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver, and the deferred - fee payment directions of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver [3] - A chart shows the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold and silver [3]