通胀放缓

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美联储戴利:劳动力市场疲软和通胀放缓,证明美联储降息合理
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 09:30
美联储戴利表示,劳动力市场的疲软以及通胀水平"远低于"人们此前的担忧,证明了上个月美国降息的 合理性,并促使美联储暗示未来可能进行更多降息。 她总结道:"我们现在正处于一个关键点,如果我们不进行风险管理,劳动力市场的疲软看起来可能会 更令人担忧。"(新华财经) 戴利在硅谷董事交流会的一次活动中表示:"经济正在略微放缓。消费者们正在耗尽他们可能拥有的所 有超额储蓄,而且他们一直在应对更高的物价水平。此外,我们还有限制性的货币政策。" ...
美联储戴利:劳动力市场疲软和通胀放缓 证明美联储降息合理
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 03:04
她总结道:"我们现在正处于一个关键点,如果我们不进行风险管理,劳动力市场的疲软看起来可能会 更令人担忧。" (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经北京10月10日电美联储戴利表示,劳动力市场的疲软以及通胀水平"远低于"人们此前的担忧, 证明了上个月美国降息的合理性,并促使美联储暗示未来可能进行更多降息。 戴利在硅谷董事交流会的一次活动中表示:"经济正在略微放缓。消费者们正在耗尽他们可能拥有的所 有超额储蓄,而且他们一直在应对更高的物价水平。此外,我们还有限制性的货币政策。" ...
东京CPI夸大放缓幅度 日本央行10月仍有望加息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-30 04:03
美元兑日元目前在148.40一线的200日均线获得支撑。日线振荡指标虽动能减弱,但仍维持在正区间, 显示多头依旧掌控节奏。上行方面,若突破149.00,将面临149.40—149.45阻力区,进一步有望挑战 150.00心理关口。下行方面,若跌破148.40支撑,可能引发加速回落,目标依次指向148.00、147.50及 147.20—147.15区域,若147.00失守,则短期走势将转向空头主导。 周二(9月30日)亚盘早盘,美元兑日元上涨,目前交投于148附近,截止北京时间11:44分,美元兑日 元报价148.58,上涨0.00%,上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为148.58。 凯投宏观在一份研报中表示,东京 弱于预期的CPI数据夸大了日本全国通胀放缓的速度。 尽管该数据让市场再次认为10月份加息的可能性不大,但凯投宏观的MarcelThieliant指出,东京9月份通 胀放缓主要是由于该市推出了免费托儿措施。这是东京和全国范围内为缓解物价压力而采取的一系列举 措中的最新一项。Thieliant估计,这些举措将日本的总体通胀率拉低了约0.7个百分点。凯投宏观预计, 当月全国不含生鲜食品和能源类目的通胀率将仅从3 ...
日本央行再次维持利率不变 日债周五多数下行
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [1][2]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, citing uncertainties related to U.S. import tariffs, even after the U.S. reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% [2]. - As of the latest data, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 0.918%, while the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.64%. The 30-year yield, however, fell by 3.5 basis points to 3.159% [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Japan's overall inflation rate decreased from 3.1% in July to 2.7%, marking the lowest level since November 2024. The "core-core" inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, fell to 3.3% from 3.4% in July [3]. - The Bank of Japan noted a "moderate" rise in inflation expectations, influenced by rising food prices, with core inflation projected between 2.5% and 3% [2][3]. Financial Market Developments - Japanese stock prices have risen, boosting the financial assets held by individuals in Japan, which totaled approximately 223.8 trillion yen (about 1.52 trillion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase. Stock holdings grew by 4.9%, and investment trusts increased by 9% [3]. - Recent data indicated that Japanese investors net purchased 1.4785 trillion yen in overseas long-term bonds while reducing short-term bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese long-term bonds by 845.3 billion yen [3]. U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of the end of July, Japan held 1.1514 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of 3.8 billion USD from the previous month and up 57.9 billion USD year-on-year, making Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4].
日本央行为最早四季度加息铺平道路 美元兑日元迈向147关口
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-19 05:30
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.50%, which aligns with market expectations, despite two committee members voting against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point hike [1] - The policy statement emphasized a moderate recovery in the economy, despite some sectors showing signs of weakness, and highlighted the need to monitor uncertainties affecting financial markets, economic activities, and prices [1] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen strengthened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low of 147.211, reflecting market reactions to the central bank's stance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the decision to keep rates unchanged indicates the Bank of Japan's cautious approach amid slowing inflation and global uncertainties, signaling readiness to address external fluctuations while assessing the strength of Japan's economic recovery [2] - The narrowing interest rate differentials are expected to lead to a gradual strengthening of the yen, enhancing Japan's purchasing power and supporting domestic demand [2] - The focus is now shifting to the upcoming press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda, which may provide further insights into the central bank's future policy direction [2]
摩根士丹利、德意志银行:预计美联储加快降息步伐
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 03:34
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank economists expect the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Predictions - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in 2025 to three times, while Morgan Stanley predicts consecutive cuts in September, October, December, and January, lowering the upper limit of the target rate to 3.5% [1][1] Economic Conditions - Economists note that slowing inflation and a weak labor market create space for the Federal Reserve to move towards a neutral policy stance more decisively [1] - The labor market's deterioration is expected to lead to further rate cuts in April and July of next year [1] Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points until December 2026, bringing rates below 3% [1] - Deutsche Bank's team believes there will be no further cuts next year, but sees potential for more cuts in 2026 due to inflation and labor market expectations [1]
大摩和德银:预计美联储未来数月将以更快步伐降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 16:51
Group 1 - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a faster pace in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 to three times, up from its previous expectation [1] - Morgan Stanley economists anticipate consecutive rate cuts at four meetings until January of next year [1]
大摩预测美联储降息步伐将加快,9月至明年1月实现“四连降“
智通财经网· 2025-09-12 14:17
智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利经济学家团队最新预测显示,美联储将在明年1月前的连续四次会议上 实施降息操作,这一判断基于通胀持续放缓及劳动力市场显现疲软态势,为该央行加快宽松步伐提供了 空间。市场普遍预期美联储将在下周会议上完成首次降息,幅度为25个基点,交易员们已押注10月和12 月会议将进一步降息。 对于本月是否应进一步降息50个基点,大摩的经济学家持反对态度,理由是当前失业率仍处相对低位, 且联邦基金利率在去年下调1个百分点(100个基点)后,目前已更接近中性水平,无需采取更激进举措。 该团队进一步预测,进入一月之后,美联储将会暂时按兵不动,先观察通胀在第一季度惯常出现的上 行'噪音'。他们写道:"等这股噪音散去,我们预期随着劳动力市场继续恶化,美联储将在4月和7月进 一步降息。" 值得注意的是,尽管当前降息速度预测较此前"今年9月起、每季度降息25个基点至2026年底、利率降至 3%以下"的版本明显加快,但摩根士丹利仍维持最终利率水平的预测不变。 尽管市场定价显示多数投资者认为美联储在12月后将暂停降息,2026年首次降息或于4月启动,但摩根 士丹利却提出不同路径——预计借贷成本将在今年9月、10月、 ...
金银铂:看涨势头建立
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 04:39
【华通白银网9月11日讯】黄金 (黄金日线图) 受美国疲弱通胀数据和货币宽松预期升温提振,金价仍接近纪录高位。8月生产者价格指数意外下滑、非农就业报告疲弱,强化了美国经 济正在失去动力的观点。交易员目前预计,美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上降息25个基点的可能性为90%。分析师认为,美联储可能在 年底前降息两次以上,这种情况历来会为金价提供支撑。围绕美联储独立性的不确定性进一步增加了风险溢价,美联储理事丽莎•库克被 解职的法律尝试突显了这一点。 技术面 金价盘中触及3,674.70美元高位,之后收于3,648.06美元附近。价格保持在50日线(3,389.4美元)上方,巩固了看涨结构。3750美元附近 形成阻力位,日收盘价高于3750美元可能开启通往3900美元的大门。初始支撑位位于3,593美元和3,511美元,若进一步下跌,支撑位位于 50日均线。 基本面 白银和黄金一样受益于温和的宏观经济。随着通胀放缓和就业市场数据走弱,白银因预期实际收益率下降而获得动能。随着市场对不断 变化的经济预期做出反应,白银作为货币金属和工业金属的双重角色为其增添了一层额外的市场兴趣。 技术面 银价上涨0.8%至41.19美 ...
比特币飙破12.35万创历史新高!与美股共振凸显风险偏好升温
智通财经网· 2025-08-14 00:45
Core Insights - Bitcoin price reached a historic high of $123,500, surpassing the previous peak of $123,200 set on July 14, indicating a strong risk appetite among global investors [1] - The S&P 500 index also hit a record high, reflecting a broader bullish sentiment in the market, with the index continuing its summer rally [1] - The rise in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a favorable legislative environment in the U.S. since President Donald Trump's administration, along with companies like MicroStrategy adopting a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - The correlation between cryptocurrency and stock markets is evident, with Ethereum showing a stronger correlation to the stock market than Bitcoin [1] - Recent U.S. inflation data met expectations, strengthening market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could shift funds from blue-chip stocks to more volatile digital tokens [1] - The demand for Ethereum has been driven by active treasury management companies, while Bitcoin's rise is supported by continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) despite facing technical resistance [1] Group 2 - Factors such as slowing inflation, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and unprecedented institutional participation through ETFs have created a strong bullish environment for cryptocurrencies [2] - The current price surge is characterized by a mature demand base, indicating that the buying activity is not solely driven by retail investors but also includes structural purchases from asset management firms, corporations, and sovereign funds [2]