"通胀放缓、降息预期升温，以及通过ETF实现的前所未有的机构参与，共同形成了强劲的利好因 素，"加密货币研究平台DYOR的首席执行官本·库兰德表示，"此次涨势的不同之处在于需求基础的成熟 度，这波上涨不仅仅是散户的狂热，更是资产管理公司、企业和主权基金的结构性买入。" 这种协同走势凸显出，投机性市场领域与主流基准指数正共享同一股乐观情绪。本周公布的美国通胀数 据符合预期，强化了市场对美联储将在9月降息的押注，这将缓解金融环境压力，并促使资金从蓝筹股 流向波动性较大的数字代币。 Ergonia研究总监克里斯·纽豪斯表示，"加密货币与股票呈正相关关系，其中以太坊与股市的相关性强于 比特币。整体市场情绪向好。" 以太坊的上涨得益于新活跃起来的国库管理公司的持续需求;而比特币的稳步攀升则依赖于交易所交易 基金(ETF)的持续资金流入，尽管它面临着技术阻力。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，比特币价格创下历史新高，与美股上涨步伐相一致。全球投资者正进一步踏 入风险偏好领域。美东时间周三晚间，比特币价格突破12.35万美元，超过7月14日创下的前历史峰值 12.32万美元。此前不久，标普500指数连续第二个交易日收于历史新高， ...

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the tension between political statements from Trump and the ambiguous signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding the strength of the US dollar and interest rate policies [1][2] - Trump's declaration of a "strong dollar" serves to protect his legacy and assert the White House's influence over market perceptions, while Powell's dovish hints suggest a potential shift towards easing monetary policy [2][3] - The recent CPI data indicating a significant drop in inflation has provided Powell with the confidence to signal a more flexible approach to interest rates, which has altered the dynamics of the power struggle [2][3] Group 2 - Market reactions have been pronounced, with the dollar index experiencing a sharp decline, gold prices reaching new historical highs, and US stock indices rising collectively due to expectations of interest rate cuts [3][4] - Non-US currencies have also benefited from the dollar's retreat, indicating a broader market shift as investors reposition themselves in response to the changing monetary landscape [3][5] - The upcoming period of anticipated interest rate cuts is characterized as a historically volatile yet potentially lucrative phase for investors [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that future decisions regarding key interest rates will depend on the persistence of inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends to inform monetary policy decisions [1] - The focus on inflation expectations suggests a proactive approach to managing economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that there is room for further interest rate cuts if inflation continues to ease [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is closely monitoring inflation trends and is prepared to adjust monetary policy accordingly [1] - A continued decline in inflation could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The central bank's focus remains on achieving its inflation targets while supporting economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that it is currently difficult to determine whether new tariff threats will undermine the prospects for inflation moderation [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of new tariffs on inflation is highlighted, indicating potential challenges for economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India may consider an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, with a possibility of earlier action, as June's CPI is expected to decline to 2.2%, the lowest since February 2019 [1] Inflation Outlook - The June CPI year-on-year rate is projected to decrease to 2.2%, down from 2.82% in May, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to favorable base effects from food price inflation, which offsets the monthly increase in food costs [1] Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, with the potential for earlier action if inflation trends continue [1] - The risk of food price shocks is considered low, supporting the case for a rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September due to a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in inflationary pressures [1] - The expected terminal interest rate has been revised to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the previous estimate of 3.5% to 3.75% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming meeting due to weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data [1] Inflation and Economic Data - Australia's overall inflation rate decreased from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May, approaching the central bank's target range lower limit of 2-3% [1] - The latest monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicates a decline in voluntary resignation rates, shifting wage negotiations towards job security, which may lead to a slowdown in wage growth beyond current expectations [1] Future Rate Expectations - Given the prevailing risks of declining growth and inflation, the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been increased by 25 basis points, with an expected cash rate of 3.1% by the end of the year [1] - Global tariff uncertainties persist, but both overall and core inflation have established a downward trend, likely maintaining around the midpoint of the 2-3% range in the coming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that many sectors are beginning to show a significant slowdown in inflation, and this trend is expected to continue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia, led by Governor Nabiullina, has observed a faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank is closely monitoring inflation trends and adjusting its policies accordingly [1] - The unexpected pace of inflation decline may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]