格隆汇1月8日｜在摩根大通以增长前景强劲为由推荐买入后，南非食品生产商股价攀升至近八年高点。 摩根大通分析师Shaun Chauke和Elena Jouronova在周四的报告中写道："我们对2026年南非食品生产商的 前景持乐观态度。"他们指出，这主要归功于大宗商品价格走软、制造设施投资带来的运营成本结构改 善，以及当地通胀放缓可能带动的销量增长。南非的年度通胀率已从2022年近8%的峰值降至3.5%，引 发了一系列降息措施，降低了这一非洲最大经济体消费者的债务成本。 ...

德国去年末通胀放缓幅度超出预期，这为欧洲央行维持政策方向提供了支撑。 联邦统计局周二公布的数据显示，12月消费者价格指数上升2%，前月为上升2.6%。此前彭博调查得出 的预期中值为2.2%。 此前，法国今晨及西班牙上周发布的报告同样显示价格压力有所缓解。欧元区数据将于周三公布，经济 学家预测通胀率将达到2%的目标值。 政策制定者已表示对通胀重回可控范围充满信心。尽管欧洲央行最新预测显示今年和明年的价格涨幅将 低于目标值，但偏差幅度较小 —— 服务行业价格粘性仍值得关注。 此前，法国今晨及西班牙上周发布的报告同样显示价格压力有所缓解。欧元区数据将于周三公布，经济 学家预测通胀率将达到2%的目标值。 政策制定者已表示对通胀重回可控范围充满信心。尽管欧洲央行最新预测显示今年和明年的价格涨幅将 低于目标值，但偏差幅度较小 —— 服务行业价格粘性仍值得关注。 行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德特别指出工资涨幅意外强劲，并强调官员们将保持"谦逊"态度，尽可能深入研 究数据。 责任编辑：刘明亮 行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德特别指出工资涨幅意外强劲，并强调官员们将保持"谦逊"态度，尽可能深入研 究数据。 责任编辑：刘明亮 德国去年末通胀放缓幅 ...

格隆汇1月3日｜1月2日，俄罗斯国家杜马金融市场委员会主席阿纳托利·阿克萨科夫在接受俄新社采访 时表示，央行关键利率可能在年底前降至9%至10%的水平。预计最早将于2月进行首次降息，随后央行 或在春季采取更果断的措施。 据阿克萨科夫评估，2月利率可能下调0.5个百分点，而3月降息幅度或达 1-1.5个百分点。 阿克萨科夫指出："央行过去五次会议上逐步降息的趋势将会延续，且步伐可能更趋果 断，时间点可能接近夏季或秋季。"他还强调，通胀放缓进程为货币政策宽松创造了条件。 阿克萨科夫 补充道："根据我的预测，到今年年底关键利率将降至9%，也可能是10%。" ...

分析人士认为，通胀放缓、经济增长改善，以及市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，均有望在明年继 续支撑兰特走势。投资者同时密切关注南非国有电力公司Eskom供电稳定性的改善，以及铁路和港口运 营效率的修复进展。2025年，Eskom基本避免了长期困扰经济的轮流限电。 南非近期正式将通胀目标下调至3%，进一步增强市场信心，推动国债收益率降至2017年以来低位。叠 加金价和铂族金属价格上涨，兰特获得额外支撑。市场数据显示，未来一年兰特隐含波动率已降至2001 年以来最低水平，反映投资者对汇率稳定性的预期明显提升。 （原标题：南非兰特汇率有望创16年来最大年度涨幅） 《彭博社》12月29日报道称，在美元走弱与国内政治稳定的共同作用下，南非兰特今年有望录得自 2009年以来的最大年度涨幅，显著提升了对国际投资者的吸引力。数据显示，兰特今年以来对美元累计 升值约13%。同期，海外投资者净买入南非本币债券724亿兰特，远高于2024年的156亿兰特净流入。 ...

同时他警告称，旅游业需谨慎定价，因为外国游客的实际消费已出现下滑。同时，若工资增长超预 期，尤其是劳动力密集型的服务业，可能会带来持续的物价上涨压力。 克国家银行预计2025年实际GDP增长率为3%，2026年将小幅放缓至2.8%。尽管较此前预测有所下 调，但整体表现依然强劲。国内需求仍是主要增长动力，但受居民实际收入增长放缓及财政支持力度减 弱影响，个人消费与投资的贡献率预计将从过去两年的高位回落。 通胀方面，预计2025年全国CPI将受能源和食品价格上涨影响升至3.7%，但到2026年将回落至 3.1%。克国家银行行长武伊契奇表示，通胀放缓主要归因于劳动力市场压力的缓解，名义工资增速预 计将从2025年的10%降至2026年的6%。 （原标题：克罗地亚国家银行预计2026年GDP增长2.8%，通胀放缓至3.1%） 据克通社12月23日报道，克国家银行（HNB）发布了最新宏观经济预测，预计克罗地亚经济将保 持稳健增长，但增速略有放缓。 ...

二、同金不同价 深圳金价相对更低，核心原因在于其背靠全国重要黄金集散地，罗湖水贝，当地黄金加工工厂与批发摊位高度集中，供给充足、竞争充分，终端零售更容易 压低利润空间，因此同类产品价格更具优势。 海口主要依赖外地调货，物流与渠道成本更高，旅游消费需求旺盛，金饰作为"礼品与纪念品"的购买占比更高，商家提价空间更大，导致同一纯度金饰的零 售价长期偏高。 国内品牌金饰克价普遍突破1400元，铂、钯等贵金属亦全线飙升，引发国内交易所连续出台风险管控措施，市场分析认为，通胀放缓强化降息预期、地缘风 险及央行购金是主要推动力，高盛更预测金价2026年或达4900美元。 一、金店价格下调，海口与深圳价差显著 近期国内金店零售金价出现明显回落，引发消费者关注，以海南海口与广东深圳为例，同为千足金，两地标价相差约17元/克。 若购买30克金饰，仅地区差异就可能形成500元以上的价差，价格下行的背景之一，是国际金价走弱带动国内市场同步调整，上海黄金交易所报价也出现下 跌，部分城市门店随之降价。 除金价本身外，加工费（工费）差异往往更显著，即便同为千足金，不同地区、不同工艺（如硬金）加价可能相差数倍：有消费者反馈，深圳硬金的工费加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

| I C E Fit Fire | 農ห | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 临近年末,市场风险偏好趋于下降,加之11月国内经济数据表现 | 不佳,而近期两场重磅会议释放的政策加码信号相对有限,市场 | | | 在政策预期落地后出现"利多出尽"式的调整,短期内股指预计 | 将延续偏弱运行态势。然而,将视角拉长,11月中旬以来的市场 | 股指 | 调整为明年股指上行打开了空间，提供了布局窗口。投资者可考 | 宏观金融 | | | | 虑在调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸，并可借股指期货的贴水结构来 | 优化长期投资的成本与胜率。 | HATT | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | | | | | 玉 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | 日本央行加息落地,市场风险偏好回升,铜价偏强运行。 | 看多 | | | | | 产业驱动有限,而宏观情绪有所好转,铝价震荡偏强。 | 看着的 | 国内基本面维持偏弱格局,短期价格维持低位运行。 | 氧化元 | 辰汤 ...

铜周报 20251221 消费短期承压， 供给担忧和宏观预期共同提振盘面 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 | 本周沪铜主力2602合约周五下午收于93180元/吨，周环比跌1.05%。本周沪铜整体呈震荡走势： | | | --- | --- | | 行情回顾 美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温，中国11月固投与地产承压，欧元区12月制造业PM加速萎 | | | 缩；美降息预期提振盘面但现实层面仍有扰动。消费弱、持货商用货，铜现货升贴水明显走低。 | | | 宏观，美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温；日本央行强调未来审慎行事。供给，铜精矿港口库 | 存环比增值同比偏低。BM谈判仍难分难解。国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增 | | 运行逻辑 | 6.69%, 前期检修影响量回归。需求，精铜杆开工受限, 下周预计延续跌势。上周10个重点城市 | | 新房、二手房成交面积同比续降。12月家用空调排产量较去年同期生产实绩降22.3%。12月1-14日 | | | 全国乘用车新能源市场零售辆同比减4% ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251215-20251219） 推荐（维持） 通胀放缓，商品价格继续上行 观点：我们认为美国通胀数据好于市场预期，但考虑"停摆"的联邦政府部门 11 月 13 日才陆续开始恢复工作，新的通胀和就业等数据可能存在误差，市场可 信度相对有限，贵金属价格仍维持震荡运行，从失业率看劳动力市场在持续降 温。展望后续，我们仍看好贵金属表现，在全球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的 情况下，黄金的避险需求和投资需求或持续存在，央行购金需求仍有上行空间； 而白银受工业需求爆发、库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向，本周白银价格首次突 破 65 美元/盎司，再创历史新高，考虑白银供需连续 5 年存在缺口以及低库存 支撑，且当前白银已被列入美国关键矿产清单，白银 ETF 需求的持续大增进 一步或加剧现货市场挤兑担忧，白银价格更具弹性。 行业观点 2：新的铜精矿年度长单价格持续低位增大冶炼减产预期 事件：根据 12 月 20 日 SMM 新闻，中国冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜 精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。2025 年铜精矿加 ...