Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]