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华尔街对特朗普关税“免疫”,市场缘何无视贸易战威胁再创新高?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 11:15
Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]
解读:特朗普关税行政令遭法院“红牌”,关税战就结束了吗?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-29 15:17
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling temporarily halts President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, highlighting the tension between executive power and judicial independence [1][2][3] Group 1: Court Ruling and Legal Implications - The court's decision questions the legality of President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, stating that it requires specific reasons to address specific issues [3][5] - The ruling indicates that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to issue global tariffs or retaliatory tariffs, and granting unlimited tariff power to the president violates the Constitution [3][4] - The court's order permanently prohibits the enforcement of the related tariff executive orders, declaring them illegal for all parties involved [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Following the ruling, global financial markets reacted positively, with U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, reflecting optimism about a potential easing of trade tensions [2][7] - However, experts warn that ongoing litigation regarding tariff policies could lead to significant disruptions in U.S. export trade and domestic market supply, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may disrupt international trade systems and lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, negatively impacting world economic growth [7][9] Group 3: Future Developments and Political Dynamics - The Trump administration has filed an appeal against the ruling, indicating a potential for further legal battles and the possibility of seeking a stay on the enforcement of the ruling [6][9] - Analysts suggest that the appeal process may introduce additional complexities, with the potential for the case to reach the Supreme Court, where outcomes remain uncertain due to the conservative majority [9][10] - The ruling complicates ongoing trade negotiations, as trade partners may hesitate to make concessions until there is more clarity from the U.S. judicial system regarding tariff disputes [10]
刚刚!特朗普发声:将大幅增加!
券商中国· 2025-05-11 07:16
特朗普,传来多则消息! 据外媒最新消息,美国总统特朗普5月11日在社交媒体上发文称,他将大幅增加与印度、巴基斯坦的贸易。 另据环球网援引法新社报道,俄罗斯总统普京提议俄乌双方于15日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔重启直接谈判后,特朗普就 俄乌冲突作出表态。特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称,他将继续与俄罗斯和乌克兰开展工作,以结束俄乌冲突。 据环球网,韩联社援引日本《朝日新闻》10日消息称,日本首相石破茂原计划在6月与美国就关税问题达成协议,但 目前已转为以7月达成协议为目标。多名日本政府相关人士透露,在第二轮日美关税谈判结束后,石破茂向身边人转 达"没必要急于(与美方)达成协议"的想法。 报道称,鉴于特朗普推动的高关税措施在美国国内引发强烈反弹,日本政府倾向于更为谨慎地评估美方立场的变 化。一名高级官员预测,随着美方设定的关税宽限期临近,美国国内的反对舆论可能进一步升温,"特朗普有可能改 变立场"。 特朗普:将大幅增加与印度、巴基斯坦的贸易 值得关注的是,在美国与英国达成一份贸易协议后,美国商务部长卢特尼克5月9日表示,印度为达成贸易协议"非常 努力",有可能成为下一个达成协议的国家之一。卢特尼克还表示,与韩国和日本的贸易协议可 ...