这场法律纠纷可能引发双重危机：一方面，美国政府已将这些关税收入用于填补财政赤字，若需退还将严重冲击本已脆弱的财政状况；另一方面，失去关税 这一谈判筹码后，美国在与欧盟、日本等经济体的贸易谈判中将处于不利地位。值得注意的是，除韩国外，多数国家与美国达成的贸易协议仅停留在口头承 诺阶段，特别是涉及对美投资的部分尚未形成具有约束力的书面协议。 日本和欧盟很可能借机推翻先前承诺。他们本就对大规模对美项目持保留态度，如今特朗普失去关税武器后，这些经济体不仅可能拒绝履约，甚至可能要求 重新谈判贸易条款。这对特朗普政府无疑是雪上加霜——原本希望通过与多国签署贸易协议来弥补对华贸易战的损失，如今这一算盘可能落空。 特朗普政府近期遭遇重大挫折，其推行的全球关税政策被美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定为越权行为。这一裁决让特朗普总统陷入前所未有的困境——他精心策 划的经济收割不仅面临夭折，还可能被迫退还企业已缴纳的巨额关税。这场始于今年4月的关税战，已让美国企业支付了超过2100亿美元的税金，若最终败 诉，政府至少要退还半数款项。 法院裁定指出，特朗普以国家紧急状态为由实施的关税政策缺乏法律依据，要求其在10月14日前提供充分证据，否则将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling temporarily halts President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, highlighting the tension between executive power and judicial independence [1][2][3] Group 1: Court Ruling and Legal Implications - The court's decision questions the legality of President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, stating that it requires specific reasons to address specific issues [3][5] - The ruling indicates that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to issue global tariffs or retaliatory tariffs, and granting unlimited tariff power to the president violates the Constitution [3][4] - The court's order permanently prohibits the enforcement of the related tariff executive orders, declaring them illegal for all parties involved [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Following the ruling, global financial markets reacted positively, with U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, reflecting optimism about a potential easing of trade tensions [2][7] - However, experts warn that ongoing litigation regarding tariff policies could lead to significant disruptions in U.S. export trade and domestic market supply, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may disrupt international trade systems and lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, negatively impacting world economic growth [7][9] Group 3: Future Developments and Political Dynamics - The Trump administration has filed an appeal against the ruling, indicating a potential for further legal battles and the possibility of seeking a stay on the enforcement of the ruling [6][9] - Analysts suggest that the appeal process may introduce additional complexities, with the potential for the case to reach the Supreme Court, where outcomes remain uncertain due to the conservative majority [9][10] - The ruling complicates ongoing trade negotiations, as trade partners may hesitate to make concessions until there is more clarity from the U.S. judicial system regarding tariff disputes [10]

三、中美两大经济体贸易对话立下良好开局，有助于缓解对全球供应链中断及经济衰退的担忧。 摩根资产管理认为，此次关税下调的幅度超出预期，这反映出中美双方都认识到关税将打击全球增长的 经济现实，对话及协商是化解风险的更好选择。资本市场立即出现积极反应，香港主要股指和美国股指 期货应声上涨，美国国债收益率和美元指数也随之上涨。90 天的关税暂停期为双方争取了达成进一步 共识的时间，但它仍然给谈判进程带来了一定压力，需要观察双方后续磋商进展。我们预计整体资本市 场风险情绪或将有所缓解，风险释放反弹后或更多回归经济和盈利基本面。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，内容显示中美双方相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域 关切的问题；双方决定自5月14日，美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商 品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内 暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日 第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些 ...

特朗普，传来多则消息！ 据外媒最新消息，美国总统特朗普5月11日在社交媒体上发文称，他将大幅增加与印度、巴基斯坦的贸易。 另据环球网援引法新社报道，俄罗斯总统普京提议俄乌双方于15日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔重启直接谈判后，特朗普就 俄乌冲突作出表态。特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，他将继续与俄罗斯和乌克兰开展工作，以结束俄乌冲突。 据环球网，韩联社援引日本《朝日新闻》10日消息称，日本首相石破茂原计划在6月与美国就关税问题达成协议，但 目前已转为以7月达成协议为目标。多名日本政府相关人士透露，在第二轮日美关税谈判结束后，石破茂向身边人转 达"没必要急于（与美方）达成协议"的想法。 报道称，鉴于特朗普推动的高关税措施在美国国内引发强烈反弹，日本政府倾向于更为谨慎地评估美方立场的变 化。一名高级官员预测，随着美方设定的关税宽限期临近，美国国内的反对舆论可能进一步升温，"特朗普有可能改 变立场"。 特朗普：将大幅增加与印度、巴基斯坦的贸易 值得关注的是，在美国与英国达成一份贸易协议后，美国商务部长卢特尼克5月9日表示，印度为达成贸易协议"非常 努力"，有可能成为下一个达成协议的国家之一。卢特尼克还表示，与韩国和日本的贸易协议可 ...