2025年11月5日，美国最高法院举行了长达两个半小时的听证会，这场听证会几乎把特朗普推到了悬崖 边缘。这个曾依靠关税大棒横扫全球贸易的总统，这次终于碰到了棘手的问题，质疑他的不是民主党的 对手，也不是外国政府，而是他自己亲自提名的保守派大法官。实际上，特朗普这次纯粹是被自己人逼 到了火坑里。 最高法院的六位保守派大法官本来是特朗普的铁票仓，结果在听证会上，反而对他的政 策展开了毫不留情的批判，提出了尖锐的问题。这场被称为世纪辩论的较量，不仅关系到特朗普关税政 策的命运，还可能让美国财政背上万亿的债务，甚至改变全球贸易的规则。 这场听证会的戏剧性堪比 一部好莱坞大片，反转不断。特朗普原本计划亲自去旁听最高法院的辩论，并且提前宣布这是美国历史 上最重要的案件之一。然而，临近日期，特朗普突然取消了这一行程，这一决定引发了外界的猜测，认 为他可能是担心在听证会上受到反对，反而被自己人打脸。 特朗普政府的策略其实很简单：他们利用 1977年的《国际紧急经济权力法》作为盾牌，将长期存在的贸易逆差问题说成是国家紧急状态，然后对 几乎所有国家加征关税，最低10%，最高甚至达到50%。对中国的关税一度飙升至145%。然而，最 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - President Trump warned that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against his comprehensive tariff policy, the country could face an economic and national security disaster, with potential refunds exceeding $2 trillion in tariffs collected [1][4][5] - Trump's administration plans to use tariff revenues to provide $2,000 to low- and middle-income Americans and to reduce national debt, indicating a shift in the initial view that tariff revenues would only be used for deficit reduction [4][5] - The Supreme Court's deliberation on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has raised concerns about the potential chaos in refunding tariffs deemed illegal, with over $100 billion at stake [5][6] Group 2: Trade Relations with India - Trump indicated that the U.S. is "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India and plans to lower tariffs on Indian goods at some point [8][9] - The imposition of high tariffs on Indian exports has led to a significant decline in India's exports to the U.S., with a 20.3% drop in September, marking the largest monthly decline this year [10] - The recent optimism in U.S.-India trade relations comes after India reportedly reduced its purchases of Russian oil, which was a point of contention in negotiations [9][10] Group 3: Air Traffic Control and Government Operations - Trump mandated that all air traffic controllers must return to work immediately, threatening severe penalties for non-compliance, amid staffing shortages affecting flight operations [12][13] - The FAA reported significant delays and cancellations due to a shortage of air traffic control personnel, impacting approximately 250,000 passengers [14]

Group 1: Midterm Election Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they will determine the political landscape and his ability to implement policies during his final years in office[1] - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses an average of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate during midterm elections, with a 36.36% chance of maintaining control after a sweep[11][12] - The significance of the 2026 midterms is heightened for Trump, as a loss could amplify political resistance during his remaining term[17] Group 2: Trade Policy Outlook - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain volatile, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a political strategy[25] - The U.S. Supreme Court may rule against Trump's use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, prompting him to seek alternative legal frameworks for tariff implementation[26][29] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching approximately $174 billion in the first nine months of 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year[37] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is anticipated to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with a total of at least four cuts projected by the end of next year[49][51] - The Fed's actions are likely to exceed market expectations and economic needs, resulting in lower interest rates and deteriorating credit conditions[38] - Trump's push for lower rates is driven by the need to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressures, especially in light of the projected $3.4 trillion deficit from the "Big Beautiful Plan" over the next decade[39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of the federal government's large-scale tariff policies, which may have significant implications for the global economy and the current administration's authority [2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The Supreme Court is reviewing an appeal from the federal government regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which has never been used for such purposes before [2][4]. - Five small businesses and twelve states filed lawsuits in April, challenging the legality of the tariff policies, with several courts previously ruling against the government's use of the Act for comprehensive tariffs [2][4]. Group 2: Government's Position - The U.S. Deputy Attorney General argued that tariffs are necessary to negotiate trade agreements and prevent aggressive trade retaliation from other nations, framing the situation as a potential economic and security disaster [3]. - The Chief Justice and other conservative justices expressed skepticism about the government's authority to impose tariffs, emphasizing that taxation is a core power of Congress [3][4]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes - If the Supreme Court rules against the government, it may have to cancel trade agreements and potentially refund importers, which could lead to significant economic repercussions [5]. - The government has alternative options to impose tariffs, such as using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to address perceived unfair trade practices [5]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act have generated an estimated $89 billion in revenue from February 4 to September 23 of this year [6]. - However, the economic costs of the tariff policies are substantial, negatively impacting consumers and productive enterprises, with a significant portion of the public attributing rising living costs to the government's actions [6].

特朗普在2025年1月正式开始了他的第二个总统任期，然而，仅仅九个月过去，美国的内外政策已经引起了广泛关注和不小的波动。 早在2024年总统选举期间，拜登就曾警告说，如果特朗普重返白宫，美国将面临巨大的困境，全球地位也会逐渐下滑。尤其在2024年3月的讲话中，拜登直 言不讳地指出，特朗普的执政风格可能会引发美国的混乱和分裂，经济和外交政策都会受到冲击。如今，拜登的预言似乎正逐步成真，美国的"全球领导 者"地位正受到威胁。 在国际局势上，特朗普的外交政策同样充满争议。拜登曾批评特朗普对盟友的态度"失礼"，并且对俄罗斯采取的政策是"现代绥靖主义"。特朗普上任仅两个 月，就宣布美国退出巴黎气候协议，联合国中的美国声音日益微弱，再也没有了以前的主导地位。到了2025年4月的北约峰会，特朗普甚至要求欧洲国家增 加防务开支，否则将从欧洲撤回美军。这一要求引起了欧洲的不满，德国迅速牵头推动欧洲独立的防务体系，英国、法国和其他国家也纷纷加强自身的安全 保障，试图不再完全依赖美国。美国的传统盟友逐渐疏远，取而代之的是中国和俄罗斯的崛起。 中国在"一带一路"倡议的推动下，已经在非洲和亚洲多个 地区建立了稳固的影响力，基础设施建设 ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 见习记者张旭 北京报道 近日，商务部发布《2025年美国履行世贸组织规则义务情况报告》（以下简称《报告》），继续表达对美破坏多边贸易体系、实施单边贸易霸 凌、操纵产业政策双重标准、扰乱全球产业链供应链等关切。 所谓"对等关税"寻求不对等收益 《报告》列举了美国违背经济规律的各项举措，并突出了特朗普政府推出的所谓"对等关税"政策。王玮向21世纪经济报道记者分析称，之所以 强调这一内容，原因在于它是本届美国政府贸易政策的最显著标志。所谓"对等关税"的本质是以对等名义，寻求不对等收益。 这也是商务部连续第三年发布该报告。 "美国第一"拖累全球经济 《报告》指出，美国近年来罔顾多边规则与成员期待，以"美国第一"为出发点，任意实施所谓"对等关税"等各类单边关税措施，阻挠世贸组织 上诉机构成员遴选并致上诉机构"瘫痪"，滥用贸易救济措施和出口管制措施，拖累全球经济复苏进程。 在关税和非关税壁垒方面，美国挥舞关税大棒，滥用"国家安全"借口，制造新的贸易不公；在产业补贴方面，美国持续施行歧视性补贴政策， 打压他国优势产业；在农业补贴方面，美国仍在采取各种措施掩盖其扭曲国际贸易的大量农产品国内支持。 ...

这场法律纠纷可能引发双重危机：一方面，美国政府已将这些关税收入用于填补财政赤字，若需退还将严重冲击本已脆弱的财政状况；另一方面，失去关税 这一谈判筹码后，美国在与欧盟、日本等经济体的贸易谈判中将处于不利地位。值得注意的是，除韩国外，多数国家与美国达成的贸易协议仅停留在口头承 诺阶段，特别是涉及对美投资的部分尚未形成具有约束力的书面协议。 日本和欧盟很可能借机推翻先前承诺。他们本就对大规模对美项目持保留态度，如今特朗普失去关税武器后，这些经济体不仅可能拒绝履约，甚至可能要求 重新谈判贸易条款。这对特朗普政府无疑是雪上加霜——原本希望通过与多国签署贸易协议来弥补对华贸易战的损失，如今这一算盘可能落空。 特朗普政府近期遭遇重大挫折，其推行的全球关税政策被美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定为越权行为。这一裁决让特朗普总统陷入前所未有的困境——他精心策 划的经济收割不仅面临夭折，还可能被迫退还企业已缴纳的巨额关税。这场始于今年4月的关税战，已让美国企业支付了超过2100亿美元的税金，若最终败 诉，政府至少要退还半数款项。 法院裁定指出，特朗普以国家紧急状态为由实施的关税政策缺乏法律依据，要求其在10月14日前提供充分证据，否则将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling temporarily halts President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, highlighting the tension between executive power and judicial independence [1][2][3] Group 1: Court Ruling and Legal Implications - The court's decision questions the legality of President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, stating that it requires specific reasons to address specific issues [3][5] - The ruling indicates that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to issue global tariffs or retaliatory tariffs, and granting unlimited tariff power to the president violates the Constitution [3][4] - The court's order permanently prohibits the enforcement of the related tariff executive orders, declaring them illegal for all parties involved [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Following the ruling, global financial markets reacted positively, with U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, reflecting optimism about a potential easing of trade tensions [2][7] - However, experts warn that ongoing litigation regarding tariff policies could lead to significant disruptions in U.S. export trade and domestic market supply, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may disrupt international trade systems and lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, negatively impacting world economic growth [7][9] Group 3: Future Developments and Political Dynamics - The Trump administration has filed an appeal against the ruling, indicating a potential for further legal battles and the possibility of seeking a stay on the enforcement of the ruling [6][9] - Analysts suggest that the appeal process may introduce additional complexities, with the potential for the case to reach the Supreme Court, where outcomes remain uncertain due to the conservative majority [9][10] - The ruling complicates ongoing trade negotiations, as trade partners may hesitate to make concessions until there is more clarity from the U.S. judicial system regarding tariff disputes [10]

三、中美两大经济体贸易对话立下良好开局，有助于缓解对全球供应链中断及经济衰退的担忧。 摩根资产管理认为，此次关税下调的幅度超出预期，这反映出中美双方都认识到关税将打击全球增长的 经济现实，对话及协商是化解风险的更好选择。资本市场立即出现积极反应，香港主要股指和美国股指 期货应声上涨，美国国债收益率和美元指数也随之上涨。90 天的关税暂停期为双方争取了达成进一步 共识的时间，但它仍然给谈判进程带来了一定压力，需要观察双方后续磋商进展。我们预计整体资本市 场风险情绪或将有所缓解，风险释放反弹后或更多回归经济和盈利基本面。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，内容显示中美双方相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域 关切的问题；双方决定自5月14日，美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商 品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内 暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日 第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些 ...