【环球网财经综合报道】今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有 余。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美元/盎司。 《联合早报》近日发文称，RJO期货高级市场策略师帕维罗尼斯（Daniel Pavilonis）指出，美联储在推进降息的同时 重启国库券购买，从而加强金融体系的资本支持，这对黄金市场是利好消息。他认为："通货膨胀依然是人们关注的 核心问题，因此，大部分资金预计将流入大宗商品领域，尤其是黄金、白银、铂金、钯金和铜。" 与此同时，Walsh Trading商业套期保值联合主管卢思克（Sean Lusk）也指出，黄金目前在市场上非常受青睐，各国央 行、养老金以及投资基金都把资金投入黄金市场，这一趋势预计会持续下去。 FxPro高级市场分析师库普齐克维奇（Alex Kuptsikevich）则持谨慎态度，认为黄金牛市可能接近尾声。他认为："根 据国际清算银行，黄金与美国股票指数作为风险资产同步波动，这是过去50年来首次出现。它们的涨势带有投机性 质，并显现泡沫迹象。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of investment decisions in the volatile financial markets of 2025, necessitating advanced analytical tools like Macro Global Markets for effective navigation through data [1] Market Trends and Analysis - The Macro Global Markets tool features a global policy simulator that captures the impact of central bank policy changes across 132 economies, breaking down the effects of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve into three phases: currency transmission (48 hours), bond market response (72 hours), and stock valuation restructuring (120 hours) [2] - The tool's "manufacturing GPS" capability utilizes 23 alternative data types, such as global port throughput and industrial electricity consumption, to predict manufacturing trends in emerging markets, with a lead time of 6-8 months [4] Strategic Insights - The "correlation matrix" function in the tool identifies hidden relationships in cross-market arbitrage, such as the correlation between the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krone rising from 0.32 to 0.81 when oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, aiding hedge funds in capturing arbitrage opportunities [5] - A unique three-layer defense mechanism in the "black swan warning system" scans media sentiment, analyzes shipping signal anomalies, and monitors dark web data to provide timely alternative route cost assessments when disruptions occur [5] User Guidance and Features - For new users, the "three-screen linked workstation" setup is recommended, which includes a U.S. Treasury yield curve, an industry rotation heatmap, and a commodity term structure monitor to stabilize market volatility [6] - Advanced users can activate the "Alpha Hunter" module, which integrates machine learning with fundamental analysis to generate decision trees based on specific investment themes, enhancing the precision of investment strategies [6] Practical Applications - The "data time machine" feature allows users to analyze historical events and their impacts, such as comparing the recent TSMC incident with past semiconductor disruptions to assess market implications [9] - The "volatility topography" function assists in risk management by simulating asset rebalancing paths under different interest rate scenarios, effectively controlling portfolio volatility during market fluctuations [9] - The Macro Global Markets tool is positioned as a comprehensive decision-making system that combines macro and micro perspectives, redefining market analysis in a new era of financial volatility [9]