Core Viewpoint - The market is currently waiting for clear economic data to confirm whether tariffs are significantly damaging the global or U.S. economy [1][5] Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. government have led to only mild reactions in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 7.31% and the Nasdaq index by 8.32% since the beginning of the year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," has dropped over 18% in the past month [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are experiencing "headline fatigue" regarding tariff announcements, as they perceive these announcements as negotiation tactics rather than firm policy commitments [4] - The market has formed a belief that President Trump's tariff announcements are often subject to change, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Trump Always Retreats" (TACO) [3][4] - The market's response to tariffs has been muted, with significant fluctuations occurring only when tariffs are first announced or when they are delayed [3] Group 3: Economic Data and Impacts - Current economic data does not show clear negative impacts from tariffs, with some data indicating resilience in consumer spending and employment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that tariffs are increasing living costs, but this is still below the 3% level seen when Trump took office [5] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations, while non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If additional tariffs are implemented on August 1, it could lead to increased price pressures and a slowdown in real disposable income growth, impacting short-term consumption [6] - The core consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer [5][6]

市场对特朗普上周一系列关税声明的反应较为平淡，但美国最大的担忧还未解除，特朗普提前预告将就 俄罗斯问题发表重大声明，"起爆点"就在今晚？ 大型投资者和资深银行家们警告称，美国股市的创纪录高位掩盖了特朗普对全球最大经济体构成的风 险，他们同时警告市场中存在日益增长的"自满"情绪。 从东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）到摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的资深高管表示，市场过于自信 地认为，特朗普会放弃那些最有可能威胁美国金融稳定的政策。 东方汇理资产管理公司（欧洲最大的资产管理公司）首席投资官文森特·莫蒂尔（Vincent Mortier）表 示："对我来说，市场对'TACO'（特朗普总是退缩）这一华尔街普遍说法的自满情绪相当明显。" 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），作为美国金融界最杰出的高管之一，在上周四的一个 活动中也表达了同样的看法，并指出："不幸的是，我认为市场存在自满情绪。" 特朗普近日表示："我认为我将在周一就俄罗斯问题发表重大声明。"荷兰国际分析师表示："特朗普有 可能宣布对俄罗斯实施更多制裁，如果制裁针对俄罗斯能源，这可能会极大地改变石油前景。" 一位前特朗普政府 ...