尿素库存增加
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尿素:短期有反弹,中期仍承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term, urea may follow the macro - sentiment and run strongly; mid - term, it is in an oscillating and pressured pattern. In the short - term, the September 3rd parade and other key events support the equity market, and the overall export of urea may support the spot price, with the futures having speculative value. In the medium - term, urea is in a high - inventory and high - premium pattern, with large fundamental pressure and may remain weak and pressured in the long - term [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: - Urea主力: The closing price was 1,746 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,747 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), the trading volume was 158,733 lots (down from 183,096 lots), the position volume of the 01 contract was 219,382 lots (down 892 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,205 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 554.611 million yuan (down 81.64 million yuan) [2]. - Basis: The Shandong region basis was - 36 yuan (up 7 yuan), the Fengxi - futures price difference was - 136 yuan (down 13 yuan), the Dongguang - futures price difference was - 36 yuan (down 3 yuan), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 69 yuan (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,610 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,710 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the Shanxi region was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74 percentage points), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [2]. 2. Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from the previous week, a 6.05% increase. The domestic urea price fluctuated at a low level, domestic demand advanced slowly, and some enterprises' shipments were less than expected, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. Some provinces' enterprise inventories increased, while others decreased [3].