Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The production index recorded 51.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, while the new orders index reached 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points, marking the first time in 23 months that new orders exceeded production[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand recovery is stronger than production, with new orders showing significant improvement driven by high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods[1][4] - New export orders increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, the highest since May 2024, indicating resilient external demand despite geopolitical tensions[3] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 63.9%, a significant increase of 9.1 percentage points, while the factory price index increased to 55.4%, up 4.6 percentage points[4][6] - Brent crude oil averaged $98.71 per barrel in March, up 42% month-on-month, contributing to rising costs in logistics and raw materials[6] Inventory and Procurement - The procurement index rose to 50.9%, indicating a return to expansion, while raw materials inventory index remained at 47.7%, indicating a cautious approach to inventory replenishment[7] - Finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.7%, reflecting limited recovery in stock levels despite improved procurement activities[7] Sector Performance - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing reached 52.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors recorded PMIs of 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating broad-based sectoral recovery[4][8] - Small and medium enterprises showed marginal improvement, with PMIs of 49.3% and 49.0%, respectively, still below the expansion threshold[8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals of coal and coking coal temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The recent sharp price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector have a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [3] Group 3: Summary by Category Market Performance - Yesterday, coking coal futures strengthened following the energy and chemical sector, hitting a daily limit during the session but then opening and falling back. The continuous expectation of overseas geopolitical conflicts decreased, and the prices of varieties such as crude oil significantly corrected. On the spot side, steel mills' first - round reduction of coking prices has been gradually implemented, and the prices of coking coal in production areas have been reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Last week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, coal mines in major production areas basically fully resumed production. Data shows that the daily production of raw coal and clean coal last week was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week. At the import end, after the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume last week was 186,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase [3] Demand - Currently, important meetings are being held, and some regional steel mills are implementing phased production restrictions, with a significant decline in hot metal production. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was 2.276 million tons, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. The impact of environmental protection production - restriction policies will still exist this week, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The recent strength of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is triggered by the Middle - East situation. The report analyzes the situation from three aspects: supply - demand fundamentals, international market linkages, and capital and market sentiment. It also provides outlooks for the market under three different scenarios of the Middle - East situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Fluctuations As of 11:30 on March 9, 2026, soybean meal was locked at the daily limit, and rapeseed meal slightly fell from the daily limit. In the afternoon, soybean meal opened the limit, and both soybean and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The import cost of soybeans has risen, there are concerns about supply shortages due to potential delays in Brazilian soybean arrivals and RMB exchange - rate fluctuations. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to anti - dumping duties. The crushing profit has been low, resulting in limited soybean meal supply. The downstream replenishment demand has risen as inventories have decreased year - on - year [1]. - **International market linkages**: The CBOT soybean price has risen due to increased biodiesel demand expectations. South American weather conditions may affect soybean production, and overseas rapeseed production may be lower, causing the ICE rapeseed price to rise slightly [1]. - **Capital and market sentiment**: A large amount of long - position capital has flowed into the market, and the market sentiment has been high. Short - term funds in the futures market have chased hot - spot varieties, amplifying price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - **Scenario 1: The Middle - East situation ends within a week**: The upward trend of protein feed may end, or it may rise first and then fall, returning to a volatile state [2]. - **Scenario 2: The Middle - East situation lasts and worsens, ending in 2 - 4 weeks**: Brazilian soybean arrivals may be delayed, and the protein feed will continue to rise, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Scenario 3: The Middle - East situation turns into a long - term war**: Global fertilizer prices may rise, increasing the cost of U.S. soybean planting. The soaring oil price will stimulate biodiesel demand, further pushing up the price of U.S. soybeans. The domestic protein feed price will rise significantly, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **For spot enterprises**: Oil mills should focus on basis sales opportunities in March. Soybean meal traders should buy on dips for hedging and sell basis at high levels. Downstream feed and breeding enterprises should also buy on dips for hedging and basis. If there are no positions, buying spot at a fixed price and stockpiling safety inventories is a practical choice [4]. - **For institutional investors**: Buy on dips. If holding long positions, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, and add positions on dips while controlling the position size. Also, buy put options or construct a collar strategy to hedge the risk of sudden price drops [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to significant adjustments in gold repurchase policies by various gold retailers and banks in China, aimed at risk management and operational efficiency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Adjustments in Gold Repurchase Policies - China Gold announced the suspension of gold repurchase services on non-trading days starting February 7, 2026, to manage risks associated with price volatility [1][2]. - Beijing Caishikou Department Store has also updated its gold repurchase rules, halting services on weekends and holidays, and reducing the daily gold repurchase limit from 200 kilograms to 100 kilograms [2]. - The adjustments include limits on repurchase amounts for individual customers, requiring prior appointments, with the limits dynamically adjusted based on market conditions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Risk Management - Analysts indicate that the cancellation of repurchase services by several gold retailers is a cautious response to the rapid price fluctuations and operational pressures faced by these businesses [3]. - The gold market has experienced significant price swings, with daily declines exceeding 10% to 30%, prompting the need for better risk control measures [3]. - The suspension of repurchase services on non-trading days is seen as beneficial for aligning with market pricing mechanisms and controlling risk exposure during periods of high volatility [3]. Group 3: Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks have begun to limit services for "three no" clients (no holdings, no inventory, no debts) in response to the heightened market risks, with some banks announcing the closure of personal trading channels for gold [4][5]. - Since September 2025, at least 11 banks have issued announcements regarding adjustments to their gold trading services, including halting new transactions and buy orders [5][6]. - The banking sector's tightening of gold trading services reflects a broader trend of increasing risk management measures in response to market volatility [7].

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of silver prices has intensified due to the increasing popularity of leveraged exchange-traded products (ETFs), leading to unprecedented price fluctuations [5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The largest leveraged ETF, ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ), accelerated a significant drop in silver prices on January 30 by selling billions of dollars worth of silver [5]. - AGQ's forced rebalancing mechanism, triggered by a nearly one-third drop in silver prices, resulted in an estimated $4 billion worth of silver futures being sold [5]. - The surge in popularity of leveraged ETFs, with nearly one-third of newly launched products last year featuring some form of leverage, has significantly impacted daily price movements of silver [9]. Group 2: Price Movements and Speculation - Silver prices have fallen over one-third since reaching a historical high, with the market experiencing its most extreme volatility since 1980 [10]. - Speculative trading is severely disrupting the price discovery process for precious metals, leading to self-sustaining volatility detached from real market fundamentals [12]. - The recent price fluctuations have also negatively affected base metal markets, with copper prices dropping below $13,000 per ton [12]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The extreme volatility in precious metals is making it increasingly risky for banks to trade with investors, as holding positions has become highly precarious [13]. - The liquidity issues in trading have exacerbated volatility, indicating that derivative market activities could significantly influence prices [13]. - Analysts suggest that if silver prices fall below the $70 mark, it could heighten risk aversion across all assets, as the metal has not been in the $60 range since December [13].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing extreme volatility, with a significant drop of nearly 10% followed by a rapid rebound, indicating a lack of bottom support in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the Asian trading session on Friday, spot silver prices rose by 6.2% after previously falling to around $64 per ounce; the day before, silver had plummeted by 20%, erasing all gains from the previous month [1][6]. - The volatility in silver prices is exacerbated by the market's smaller size and relatively low liquidity, making silver's price fluctuations more severe than those of gold [1][6]. - Recent silver price movements are among the most extreme since 1980, with speculative momentum and reduced off-exchange liquidity amplifying the volatility [1][8]. - Since reaching a historical high on January 29, silver prices have declined by over one-third [1][8]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors have been increasing large positions in precious metals, particularly in leveraged exchange-traded products and call options throughout January, but this trend abruptly halted with a record single-day drop in silver on January 30 [3][8]. - A significant reduction in Chinese buying has left silver without support, with domestic silver prices shifting from a premium to a discount relative to international benchmarks [3][8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver holdings have fallen to their lowest level in over four years, indicating ongoing position liquidations [3][8]. - Analysts note that long positions are being liquidated while short positions are being closed for profit, especially as the Chinese New Year approaches [3][8]. Group 3: Comparison with Gold - The gold market, which has better liquidity, is performing better than silver, with several banks and asset management firms reaffirming a long-term bullish outlook on gold [5][10]. - A fund manager from Fidelity, who sold gold before the recent drop, is preparing to buy again, while the head of commodity investment at Pacific Investment Management Company believes the upward trend in gold remains intact [5][10]. - However, the extreme volatility in precious metals raises concerns about their effectiveness as a risk hedge, with some strategists suggesting that Bitcoin may have greater long-term appeal than gold [5][10]. - As of 2:25 PM Singapore time, spot silver rose by 4.5% to $74.09 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 1.7% to $4,860.27 per ounce [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that silver has experienced a more significant adjustment compared to gold due to tighter liquidity conditions in the London market, which amplifies price volatility in both directions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquidity situation in the London market remains tight, contributing to increased price fluctuations for silver [1] - The tightening of liquidity in London adds an extra factor to extreme price behavior in the silver market [1] Group 2: Price Volatility - The volatility in the silver market is influenced by a similar bullish options structure as seen in gold [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing the most severe price volatility since the 2008 financial crisis, with a 30-day volatility exceeding 44%, surpassing Bitcoin's volatility of approximately 39% [1][8] - This marks an unusual role reversal, as gold is typically viewed as a more stable store of value compared to cryptocurrencies, which are known for their speculative nature [1][8] - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by about 66%, while Bitcoin has decreased by 21% [5][12] Group 2 - Economic uncertainty has driven precious metal prices to record highs, with a significant surge in demand due to geopolitical risks, currency devaluation, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][9] - A dramatic reversal occurred after a rapid price increase, with spot gold dropping by $1,000 in just two trading days, nearing the $4,400 mark [2][9] - Bitcoin has not benefited from the same forces driving gold prices up, falling to a 10-month low and experiencing a cumulative decline of over 40% since its peak in October [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 saw significant fluctuations in the pure benzene market, characterized by an initial price surge followed by a prolonged decline, with various factors contributing to a new market landscape [3][21]. Price Trends - In 2025, pure benzene prices fluctuated, with an average price of 6189.22 yuan/ton, down 25.51% from 8308 yuan/ton in 2024. The highest price was 7790 yuan/ton on February 12, while the lowest was 5275 yuan/ton on November 11 [3][21]. - The price range for pure benzene in 2025 was between 5300 and 7800 yuan/ton, with most months falling below the average prices of the past five years [5][24]. Seasonal Deviations - The seasonal price patterns in 2025 deviated significantly from historical trends, particularly in March to May, where prices were notably lower than seasonal indices due to underperformance in domestic terminal recovery and widespread losses in downstream sectors [7][26]. Import and Inventory Dynamics - The traditional correlation between import volumes and inventory levels at the East China main port broke down in 2025, as imports increased while inventory levels remained stable, only slightly rising at year-end [8][27]. - The East China main port's inventory was generally at the average level of the past five years, influenced by high operational loads in downstream industries, which shifted pure benzene into solid forms within the supply chain [10][29]. Profitability and Operational Trends - The negative correlation between downstream profitability and operational rates weakened in 2025, with significant losses reported in the first half of the year despite high operational rates [11][30]. - By the fourth quarter, both operational rates and profitability improved due to increased exports of styrene and coordinated production cuts in the caprolactam industry, leading to a relative high point in downstream profitability [12][31]. Inventory-Price Relationship - The expected negative correlation between inventory levels and prices of pure benzene was disrupted in 2025, as high inventory levels did not lead to expected price declines, indicating a shift in market dynamics [15][34]. - The structural changes in inventory and price relationships suggest that the transmission of market signals through the supply chain was not functioning effectively, leading to a different form of inventory transfer [17][36]. Future Outlook - In January 2026, pure benzene prices rose to an average of 5596.05 yuan/ton, with expectations for the year to see a price range between 5200 and 6500 yuan/ton, and an average price of approximately 5860 yuan/ton [19][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of value investors, emphasizing their indifference to market price fluctuations and focus on fundamental business performance instead [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Value Investors - Value investors are unaffected by price volatility in the capital market, as they prioritize fundamental changes over price changes [1][2]. - Price increases or decreases do not alter the underlying value of a company, as the fundamentals remain unchanged regardless of market fluctuations [2][3]. - The joy for value investors comes from the growth of fundamentals rather than price changes, leading to a different emotional response compared to ordinary investors [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - Value investors tend to avoid monitoring stock price movements frequently and do not rely on past price trends when making trading decisions [4]. - The focus on reasonable cost-performance ratios during transactions allows value investors to engage in trading without being influenced by prior stock price behavior [4]. - This approach simplifies the investment process, making it more enjoyable and less stressful for value investors compared to the general market [4].