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Core Insights - The market for carbon black is currently experiencing cautious price adjustments, with limited negotiation space and a tendency to maintain a range-bound state [1][2] - The coal tar market shows positive trends, with deep processing operations at high levels and potential for further increases, while coking operations are declining, suggesting a return to normal supply-demand balance [1][3] Group 1: Coal Tar Market - The auction quantity for high-temperature coal tar from Xichang Panjiang Coal Coking Co., Ltd. was 1,020 tons, with a starting price of 2,700 CNY/ton and a transaction price of 2,720 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 94 CNY from the previous week [1] - The auction quantity for high-temperature coal tar from Panzhihua Panjiang Coal Coking Co., Ltd. was 1,000 tons, with a starting price of 2,670 CNY/ton and a transaction price of 2,750 CNY/ton, indicating an increase of 95 CNY from the previous week [1] Group 2: Carbon Black Market - Carbon black prices are adjusting cautiously, with last week's prices hitting a low point, leading to increased stocking by some downstream players and a rise in demand orders, alleviating inventory pressure for carbon black manufacturers [2] - Most tire manufacturers are still negotiating prices aggressively, with overall tire production in November showing good continuity and stable load levels, with full steel tires at 65% and semi-steel tires at 74% [2] Group 3: Market Forecast - The coal tar prices are expected to show a rebound trend this week, while carbon black prices will depend on the fluctuations in coal tar prices [3]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic factors are causing fluctuations in precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing mixed movements. The market sentiment remains cautious due to various uncertainties, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ongoing trade tensions [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have recently declined, with the current price at 85,920 CNY/ton. The market is experiencing weak demand, and while there is a high inventory level, the long-term demand for copper is expected to grow due to the global energy transition [1][13]. - Aluminum prices have increased, with the current price at 21,555 CNY/ton. The supply remains stable, but demand has decreased slightly. The cost of alumina has also dropped, impacting overall profitability [1][22][23]. - Precious metals are under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with gold averaging 913.53 CNY/g and silver at 11,329 CNY/kg. The market is expected to remain volatile in the near term [2][27]. 2. Minor Metals - Antimony prices have slightly decreased, with the market showing signs of cautious trading. The demand from downstream sectors is stable, but the overall market remains under pressure from high costs [3][44]. - The rare earth sector is seeing a pause in export controls, which is expected to boost exports and stabilize prices. The price of light rare earths has increased by 4.5% to 555,000 CNY/ton [4][67]. 3. Market Predictions - For copper, the price is expected to fluctuate between 84,500 and 86,500 CNY/ton in the short term, with a potential for upward movement due to improved demand from infrastructure projects [14]. - Aluminum prices are predicted to remain high, with a trading range of 20,800 to 21,700 CNY/ton, supported by positive macroeconomic sentiment [24]. - Gold and silver prices are anticipated to continue their volatile trend, with gold expected to trade between 890 and 940 CNY/g and silver between 10,800 and 11,800 CNY/kg [28][29].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on the commodity market, particularly focusing on copper and soybean markets [3][4][6]. Key Points on Copper Market - Global supply risks from free ports have driven copper prices up, with expectations of a structural shortage in the market due to low inventory and long-term demand from new energy sectors [4][6]. - Currently, there are no signs of copper being overbought, indicating potential for continued price increases [4]. Key Points on Gold Market - Recent gold price declines are attributed to reduced risk aversion and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to a downward adjustment in December rate cut probabilities [4][5]. - Central bank gold purchases have slowed, contributing to short-term price pressures, but gold remains attractive as a long-term hedge against uncertainty [5]. Key Points on Soybean Market - The projected soybean production for the 2025-2026 season is 117 million tons, but this may be adjusted due to the USDA shutdown [6]. - Soybean exports are expected to be 45.86 million tons, with approximately 13 million tons directed to China. However, insufficient prior purchases from China have created a surplus pressure of about 12 million tons for US farmers [6][7]. - The forecast for US soybean export pressure in 2025 is between 10 to 12 million tons, significantly influenced by US-China procurement agreements [7][8]. Price Dynamics and Scenarios - Three scenarios for soybean price movements are proposed: 1. **Conservative Estimate**: If tariffs remain and first-quarter purchases are below 3 million tons, prices may quickly decline [8]. 2. **Baseline Scenario**: If imports range between 6 to 8 million tons, prices may stabilize around 1,100 cents per bushel [8]. 3. **Optimistic Scenario**: If China purchases around 12 million tons in the first quarter, prices could rise above 1,150 cents, potentially reaching 1,200 cents [8]. Chinese Soybean Market Dynamics - The Chinese soybean market is shifting from gap pricing to cost pricing, with ample supply leading to price declines in Q4 [9]. - If US-China relations improve in Q1, prices may stabilize based on Brazilian and US soybean procurement costs, with potential for profit recovery [9][10]. Impact of Chinese Procurement on Futures - The pace of Chinese soybean procurement directly affects the March futures contracts. Slow procurement and insufficient margins may lead to price increases post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Agricultural Planting Decisions - Rising soybean prices may shift planting decisions towards soybeans over corn, creating a seesaw effect in planting areas [12]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the interconnectedness of US-China trade negotiations, commodity pricing, and agricultural production decisions, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of procurement agreements and market dynamics.

Group 1: Market Overview - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is stable at 53,200 CNY/ton, while N-type granular silicon is at 50,500 CNY/ton, both showing no change from the previous week [1] - The polysilicon market is influenced by weak demand expectations for Q4 solar installations and limited new orders for battery components, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere [1][2] - The average monthly production of polysilicon is expected to rise to around 130,000 tons in Q4, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month, but most companies have nearly saturated their order intake for the month [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major manufacturers in the Southwest region plan significant production cuts in November and December, with Inner Mongolia's capacity undergoing maintenance, leading to a forecasted decrease in domestic polysilicon production to 125,000 to 130,000 tons [1] - The downstream operating rates remain stable, and the accumulation of polysilicon inventory is expected to slow down, although industry inventory levels are likely to exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [1] - The current market situation indicates an ongoing supply surplus, with expectations of weak and stable operations in the short term due to policy uncertainties [1] Group 3: Silicon Wafer Market - The trading of silicon wafers is sluggish, with prices under downward pressure due to weak terminal market demand; the average price for 183N monocrystalline wafers remains at 1.32 CNY/piece, while 210RN and 210N wafers have seen price declines of 4.29% and 1.19%, respectively [2] - Despite a strong willingness among silicon wafer manufacturers to maintain prices, the weak demand from downstream battery component companies leads to a focus on depleting existing inventory [2] - The silicon wafer market is expected to remain in a supply surplus situation, but some manufacturers plan to reduce operating rates, which may gradually improve the supply-demand relationship [2][3] Group 4: Battery and Component Pricing - The average price for 183N battery cells has decreased to 0.31 CNY/W, while 210RN and 210N prices remain stable at 0.285 CNY/W and 0.31 CNY/W, respectively [3] - Demand for 183N battery cells is supported by the Indian market, but prices are slowly declining due to competitive pricing strategies from domestic manufacturers and shifting demand to Southeast Asia [3] - Component prices remain stable despite rising costs of raw materials and auxiliary materials, with TOPCon domestic centralized project prices ranging from 0.64 CNY/W to 0.70 CNY/W [4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, a phase of bearish sentiment is maintained. Palm oil may test the support around 9000 yuan, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize if it can find support at this level. Soybean oil has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the domestic futures market may maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. The spot basis quotation may have limited fluctuation space [1]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The 9 - month production and sales data is moderately bearish, and the market is expected to maintain a shock - weak pattern [3][4]. - **Meal Products**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal is expected to have limited upward movement this year, but the downward space is also limited. If the market does not purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2900, and attention should be paid to the uncertainty of arrivals [6]. - **Pigs**: In the long - term, the supply pressure of pigs in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The policy - driven industry capacity reduction effect needs time to materialize, and the spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the slow increase in corn supply supports the price, but it is under pressure from the supply side. The disk is expected to maintain a low - level shock [12][14]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, cotton prices will fluctuate within a range. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13500 - 13600. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises have demand for cotton raw materials at current prices [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize for observation, but there is still overall pressure due to sufficient supply and improving demand [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On October 22, compared with October 21, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil increased. The cross - period spreads of various oils also changed, with the palm oil cross - period spread increasing significantly [1]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: For palm oil, the high production in the first 20 days has a negative impact on the market, and the end - of - month inventory estimate and the MPOB report are key factors. For soybean oil, factors such as US inventory changes, Brazilian biodiesel policies, and domestic market competition all affect the market [1]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the prices of sugar futures and spot decreased. The production and sales data showed an increase in production and sales, but the sales rate decreased slightly. The import price of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price difference with domestic sugar also changed [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure from Brazil and the market's attention to the production prospects of India and Thailand affect the raw sugar price. The 9 - month production and sales data and new sugar pre - sale prices affect the domestic sugar market [3][4]. Meal Products - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of domestic soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed minor changes. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still at a high level, and the recent purchase has slowed down due to poor crushing margins [6]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The improvement of the US soybean export expectation, the smooth sowing of Brazilian new - crop soybeans, and the high domestic soybean import volume all affect the market. The uncertainty of soybean arrivals also needs attention [6]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the futures price of pigs decreased slightly, while the spot price increased. The slaughter volume increased slightly, and the prices of piglets, sows, and other indicators also changed. The breeding profit decreased significantly [9]. - **Influencing Factors**: The short - term rebound of pig prices is mainly due to secondary fattening, but the long - term supply pressure is still large, and the policy - driven capacity reduction effect needs time to be reflected [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: On October 22, the price of corn futures decreased, and the basis increased. The inventory of corn and corn starch changed, with the corn warehouse receipt increasing significantly [12]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The weather in different regions affects the corn harvest and price. The demand side is relatively cautious, and the subsequent procurement intention of deep - processing and feed enterprises will increase [12][14]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of cotton futures decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The commercial inventory increased significantly, while the industrial inventory decreased slightly. The import volume increased [15]. - **Influencing Factors**: The firm purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton provides cost support, but the weak downstream terminal demand and increasing hedging pressure limit the upward space of cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the price of culled chickens decreased. The egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [18][19]. - **Influencing Factors**: The high inventory of laying hens, the improvement of egg - laying rate and egg weight, and the increasing demand from downstream trade - ups all affect the egg price [19].

Core Insights - The London market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, leading to silver prices reaching multi-decade highs, with spot silver nearing $52 per ounce, a significant increase of 3.1% [1] - Gold has also seen a rise, surpassing $4,070 per ounce, continuing an eight-week upward trend, while platinum and palladium prices have surged as market tensions spread to other precious metals [1] Market Dynamics - Concerns over insufficient liquidity in the London silver market are driving prices close to the historical record of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980, with the London benchmark silver price significantly higher than that in New York [1] - The one-month leasing rate for London silver skyrocketed over 30% last Friday, indicating tightening liquidity in precious metal reserves, with similar increases observed in gold and palladium leasing rates [1] Investment Trends - Analysts from Goldman Sachs highlight that the low liquidity in the silver market, which is about one-ninth the size of the gold market, could amplify price volatility, suggesting that a withdrawal of investment funds without central bank support may lead to significant corrections [1] - The four major precious metals have seen price increases ranging from 55% to 80% this year, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, increased ETF holdings, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, alongside geopolitical and trade risks boosting safe-haven demand [1] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical and trade risks that initially supported gold prices are now showing signs of weakening, although analysts note that trade volatility is unlikely to disappear completely, which remains favorable for gold [1] - The conclusion of the U.S. "Section 232" investigation is anticipated, with traders wary of potential tariffs on metals, while the reduction in London silver inventories has laid the groundwork for the current short squeeze [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate have shown a marginal decline due to the holiday disruptions[2] - The apparent demand for steel has decreased, while the operating rate for polyester in textiles has increased[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have decreased, indicating seasonal fluctuations[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 28.7% year-on-year as of October 10, influenced by the holiday and base effects[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has dropped by 0.83% month-on-month as of September 29[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles increased by 6% year-on-year in September, while major home appliance retail sales fell by 6.7%[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 31.6%[2] - The total number of people moving across regions during the holiday reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 6.9%[2] - Export container freight rates have shown a decline of 6.7% week-on-week, although rates from Shanghai and Ningbo have increased since the end of September[2] Price Trends - The South China black raw materials index rose by 1.8%, while the futures price of rebar increased by 1%[2] - The futures price of coking coal rose by 3.1%, while the spot price in Shanxi fell by 1.1%[2]