Core Viewpoint - The rebound in urea futures prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly changes in international geopolitical situations affecting export expectations and rising international prices due to regional instability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Urea futures main contract 2509 closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 3.48% [1]. - International urea prices surged, with Middle Eastern FOB prices reaching 390 USD/ton, influenced by geopolitical tensions and India's new round of urea tenders [1]. - India's NFL announced a tender for 1.5 million tons of urea, with the lowest bid from Oman at an average CFR price of 399 USD/ton, exceeding market expectations by 10 USD/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current urea production remains high at over 200,000 tons per day, with a slight decrease from the previous week [2]. - Agricultural demand is primarily for replenishment, with limited support for urea prices due to seasonal declines in compound fertilizer production [2]. - Urea inventories have risen again, reaching 1.1771 million tons, indicating a return to historical highs [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is currently cautious, with many participants adopting a "short and quick" purchasing strategy due to a prevailing bearish outlook [3]. - Despite the current supply-demand imbalance, positive news has temporarily boosted market sentiment, potentially narrowing the supply-demand gap [3]. - The potential for further price rebounds is constrained by ongoing supply pressures and limited policy adjustments, with a need for significant production cuts or increased export volumes to trigger a sustained price increase [4].