| | | 尿素早评20251212: 关注成本端能否企稳 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 変化值 单位 12月11日 12月10日 | | | | | | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1638.00 | 1645.00 | (绝对值) -7.00 | (相对值) -0.43% | | | 民素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1703.00 | 1713.00 | -10.00 | -0.58% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1716.00 | 1721.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1700.00 | 10.00 | 0.59% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1540.00 | 1530.00 | 10.00 | 0.65% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1690.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) ...

供大于求格局延续，尿素跌幅扩大 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年9月 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 GALAXY FUTURES 2 上周观点：回归基本面，尿素震荡下跌 本周观点：供需格局继续恶化，尿素跌幅扩大 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥 开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，待发消耗， 预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交转弱，待发充裕，预计出厂报价跟跌为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价弱稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区需求低迷，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单 量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看，部分装置检修，日均产量下滑至19万吨以下。需求端，新一轮印标结果出炉，总招标量203万吨，当前国内外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The release of a new urea export quota of 600,000 tons on November 6th boosted the domestic urea market sentiment, with the futures price gapping up and the spot price following suit. However, the domestic urea market has been facing high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and low production profits. The export has been the only way to digest the surplus production. The increase in the quota mainly affects the short - term market trend, and the price reversal requires an improvement in domestic supply - demand [1]. - Currently, the domestic urea supply is back to a high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. The demand is generally weak, with industrial demand remaining sluggish and agricultural demand ending. The overall supply - demand is still weak, the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons, and high - level supply is one of the main reasons for the domestic surplus this year. Both coal - based and gas - based processes are in a loss state, and the rising coal price has further increased the cost of coal - based urea production. The cost support for the price will become more obvious at the current low price. Attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts and the scale of seasonal shutdown of gas - head devices in winter [6]. Demand - Industrial demand has been unable to bring incremental demand to urea due to the weak terminal market. The start - up of melamine is low, and the finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers is high. Although the start - up of compound fertilizers is gradually bottoming out and will increase seasonally, agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export policy is an important variable affecting the domestic urea market, as four batches of new export quotas this year have led to a significant year - on - year increase in exports [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the strong supply and weak demand situation. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum due to high supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1644 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.67% from November 5 - UR05 closed at 1727 yuan/ton on November 6, up 12 yuan or 0.70% from November 5 - UR09 closed at 1750 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.63% from November 5 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 12 yuan to - 147 yuan/ton - The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan to - 83 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1630 yuan/ton, the highest was 1653 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1628 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 275142 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current urea market in China is characterized by an oversupply and high inventory levels, with no significant positive factors on the demand side. Although exports have seen some recovery, they are limited in both time and volume, leading to a continued weak price outlook for urea in the short term [1][11]. Supply Situation - Urea prices in China have been on a downward trend in the second half of the year, with production profits being squeezed. As of now, the average loss for fixed-bed process urea production is 220 CNY/ton, while gas-based process urea production incurs a loss of 185 CNY/ton. The more advanced gasification process yields a profit of 155 CNY/ton, indicating low overall industry profit levels [2]. - The operating rate of urea production enterprises in China is at 81.22% as of September 17, down 3.98 percentage points year-on-year and 8.61 percentage points from the high in late May. Despite this decrease, the supply pressure remains significant, with a weekly production of 1.3 to 1.35 million tons, which is notably higher than demand [2]. - As of September 18, total inventory for urea enterprises is 1.1653 million tons, with port sample inventory at 516,000 tons. Although port inventory has decreased due to export recovery, both enterprise and port inventories are significantly above levels from the same period last year, necessitating low prices to promote inventory reduction [2]. Demand Factors - Currently, there is a seasonal recovery in agricultural demand as the period for winter fertilizer reserves approaches. The order situation for compound fertilizers is decent, leading to an increase in operating rates and subsequently boosting urea demand. However, overall demand remains below expectations, with weekly demand around 1.15 million tons, failing to keep pace with supply [3][11]. Export Dynamics - China has transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of urea since 2000, with significant export volumes in 2014 and 2015. However, in 2024, to ensure urea demand and stabilize prices, exports have been suspended, with only 25,000 tons expected to be exported, a decrease of 3.9947 million tons or 94.11% from 2023 [10]. - The export policy has been gradually relaxed, allowing for a limited export window from May to September, with a total cap of 2 million tons. As of July and August, exports reached 1.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 740,000 tons or 117.46%. However, the impact on the overall supply-demand balance remains limited due to the capped export volume [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures prices have shown a downward trend in early September, with a weak spot market and a bearish sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant bullish drivers. It is expected that futures prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend in the short term [1]. Supply Summary - Despite some maintenance leading to a temporary drop in daily production to 190,000 tons, overall domestic urea supply remains relatively high. The production capacity utilization rate is at 79.34%, up 1.24 percentage points month-on-month. With fewer planned maintenance shutdowns, both production capacity utilization and daily output are expected to increase further [2]. - New production capacity is set to be released in Q4 2023, with daily production potentially exceeding 210,000 tons by 2026, which will exacerbate domestic supply pressure. Current inventories at urea enterprises are at a five-year high, totaling 1.1327 million tons, a 50% year-on-year increase [2]. - Production profits for urea have significantly declined year-on-year, with new gas flow bed production profits around 300 CNY/ton, traditional fixed bed production profits at about 50 CNY/ton, and natural gas process production profits at approximately 150 CNY/ton [2]. Demand Summary - Urea apparent demand from January to July 2023 was 41 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons or 8% year-on-year. However, agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, and compound fertilizer companies are facing high finished product inventories and low operating rates, primarily purchasing urea as needed [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the real estate sector, remains weak, with a notable decline in plywood demand, leading to low operating rates in plywood factories [3]. - Although daily production of urea slightly decreased in early September, it is expected to rebound to over 190,000 tons by mid to late September due to the resumption of previously shut-down facilities and new capacity coming online. However, agricultural demand is unlikely to see significant improvement, and industrial demand is recovering slowly, providing insufficient support for prices [3].

Core Viewpoints - The current structure of the domestic urea market shows a contradiction: inventory is decreasing while agricultural demand is in a lull, and small package exports are restricted [3] - Despite some maintenance in production facilities, overall daily output remains high, indicating sufficient market supply [3] - Agricultural demand is weakening as the northern summer fertilization season comes to an end, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn has not yet started on a large scale, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on futures prices [3] Supply Side Analysis - Domestic urea daily production is approximately 192,600 tons with an operating rate of 81.62%, which is an increase of 9,400 tons compared to the same day last year [1] - Several production facilities are undergoing maintenance, including a 15-day maintenance at Henan Zhongying and a 200-day upgrade at Shanxi Jinfeng [1][2] - Overall supply remains ample despite some production disruptions [1][3] Demand Side Analysis - Agricultural demand is expected to weaken as the summer fertilization season concludes, and the production of compound fertilizers has not yet ramped up significantly [2][3] - Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are primarily focused on selling existing inventory due to high stock levels, which limits support for urea demand [2][3] - The average pre-sale days for July is 3.43 days, unchanged month-on-month but down 12.60% year-on-year, indicating a short-term purchasing approach from downstream buyers [2] Inventory and Export Dynamics - As of July 23, 2025, total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons or 4.10% from the previous week [2] - Although domestic urea demand is weak, some inventory is still being exported, leading to a slight reduction in overall factory stock [2] - India’s IPL has announced a new round of urea import tenders for 2 million tons, with a bid deadline of August 4 [2] Market Strategy - A short-term range trading strategy is recommended, with a price range of 1,740 to 1,820 [4] - If futures prices fall below 1,780 yuan/ton, a small long position may be considered due to the higher certainty of supply contraction compared to the persistence of weak demand [4] - If prices rebound above 1,830 yuan/ton, a short position may be advisable as spot prices are unlikely to support significant futures price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in urea futures prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly changes in international geopolitical situations affecting export expectations and rising international prices due to regional instability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Urea futures main contract 2509 closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 3.48% [1]. - International urea prices surged, with Middle Eastern FOB prices reaching 390 USD/ton, influenced by geopolitical tensions and India's new round of urea tenders [1]. - India's NFL announced a tender for 1.5 million tons of urea, with the lowest bid from Oman at an average CFR price of 399 USD/ton, exceeding market expectations by 10 USD/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current urea production remains high at over 200,000 tons per day, with a slight decrease from the previous week [2]. - Agricultural demand is primarily for replenishment, with limited support for urea prices due to seasonal declines in compound fertilizer production [2]. - Urea inventories have risen again, reaching 1.1771 million tons, indicating a return to historical highs [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is currently cautious, with many participants adopting a "short and quick" purchasing strategy due to a prevailing bearish outlook [3]. - Despite the current supply-demand imbalance, positive news has temporarily boosted market sentiment, potentially narrowing the supply-demand gap [3]. - The potential for further price rebounds is constrained by ongoing supply pressures and limited policy adjustments, with a need for significant production cuts or increased export volumes to trigger a sustained price increase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].