3.库存方面，2025年7月23日，中国尿素企业总库存量85.88万吨，较上周减少3.67万吨，环比减少 4.10%。本周期国内尿素企业库存延续下降，但降幅收窄。近期国内尿素需求偏弱，尿素工厂整体接单 及出货放缓。但因部分货源仍处于出口集港中，以及局部下游阶段性逢低采购，整体尿素工厂呈现小幅 去库。 【现货价格更新】 国内尿素小颗粒现货价格，河南市场主流价1830(-20)，基差45(-32)；山东市场主流价1810(-20)，基差 25(-32)；山西市场主流价1670(-20)，基差-115(-32)；河北市场主流价1780(-20)，基差-5(-32)；江苏市场 主流价1820(-20)，基差35(-32)； 【本周市场主要动态】 综合安云思和隆众的统计：1.从供应端来看，国内尿素日产约19.26万吨，开工率81.62%，较去年同日 增加0.94万吨；卓创监测7月日均产量约19.58万吨，月环比下滑4.40%，月同比上涨11.69%。装置方 面，河南中盈（80万吨）7月23日检修（15天），山西晋丰中颗粒升级改造（200天）、闻喜夏季检修 （45天）、天源大颗粒7月底升级改造（200天），河北正元平山（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in urea futures prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly changes in international geopolitical situations affecting export expectations and rising international prices due to regional instability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Urea futures main contract 2509 closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 3.48% [1]. - International urea prices surged, with Middle Eastern FOB prices reaching 390 USD/ton, influenced by geopolitical tensions and India's new round of urea tenders [1]. - India's NFL announced a tender for 1.5 million tons of urea, with the lowest bid from Oman at an average CFR price of 399 USD/ton, exceeding market expectations by 10 USD/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current urea production remains high at over 200,000 tons per day, with a slight decrease from the previous week [2]. - Agricultural demand is primarily for replenishment, with limited support for urea prices due to seasonal declines in compound fertilizer production [2]. - Urea inventories have risen again, reaching 1.1771 million tons, indicating a return to historical highs [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is currently cautious, with many participants adopting a "short and quick" purchasing strategy due to a prevailing bearish outlook [3]. - Despite the current supply-demand imbalance, positive news has temporarily boosted market sentiment, potentially narrowing the supply-demand gap [3]. - The potential for further price rebounds is constrained by ongoing supply pressures and limited policy adjustments, with a need for significant production cuts or increased export volumes to trigger a sustained price increase [4].